Rider schedules and targets for 2023 (also rumours and opinions allowed)

[pman]

Doesn't it only make sense for Roglic to do the Tour again as part of the tag-team, and if all goes well (or not) the Vuelta again? Furthermore he just got surgery with months off the bike, so he'll be behind schedule if he'd be targeting the Giro and he wouldn't be a contender at the Tour after doing the Giro either (unless he'd do the Giro as some prep race, not for GC).

Hasn't Jumbo been teasing Roglic to the Tour for a while? Someone from Jumbo will always be competitive in this race as long as they continuing to pump resources into the sport at their current rate. I've been a Roglic fan since day 1. I am also a Pog fan. Looking at the team UAE is sending the race, they clearly hope that they have the team to pull back the first of the 1-2 Jumbo punch.

From my perspective, we know who all the major contenders are and what they're capable except Jonas Vingegaard. He's won one major race in his career. A few years ago he couldn't break the top 10 in the Danish NITT. However in that one major race he won, he looked about as dominant as any rider in recent memory. Was 2022 just a weird year where Pog got something wrong in training or wasn't 100 %? Or is Vingegaard just that much better in the high mountains over 3 weeks? A guy capable of one huge peak and then major regression the rest of the year. Who knows. But if I am Roglic, I know I can compete with Pog. I know I am in his league. I am willing to take a chance that Vingegaard isn't the machine he looked and that possibly, just possibly I can win a Tour de France. If I am Roglic and my team gives me the chance, I am giving the Tour one last try.

 

[Squire]

Hasn't Jumbo been teasing Roglic to the Tour for a while? Someone from Jumbo will always be competitive in this race as long as they continuing to pump resources into the sport at their current rate. I've been a Roglic fan since day 1. I am also a Pog fan. Looking at the team UAE is sending the race, they clearly hope that they have the team to pull back the first of the 1-2 Jumbo punch.

From my perspective, we know who all the major contenders are and what they're capable except Jonas Vingegaard. He's won one major race in his career. A few years ago he couldn't break the top 10 in the Danish NITT. However in that one major race he won, he looked about as dominant as any rider in recent memory. Was 2022 just a weird year where Pog got something wrong in training or wasn't 100 %? Or is Vingegaard just that much better in the high mountains over 3 weeks? A guy capable of one huge peak and then major regression the rest of the year. Who knows. But if I am Roglic, I know I can compete with Pog. I know I am in his league. I am willing to take a chance that Vingegaard isn't the machine he looked and that possibly, just possibly I can win a Tour de France. If I am Roglic and my team gives me the chance, I am giving the Tour one last try.

What do you mean major regression in the rest of the year? You're talking about someone who won a French one-day race in February, was runner-up in Tirreno-Adriatico in March, had a solid Itzulia in April, won a stage and podiumed Dauphiné in June, and won two stages and podiumed the Tour of Croatia in October. If Andy Schleck did all that, we'd all be shell shocked.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Doesn't it only make sense for Roglic to do the Tour again as part of the tag-team, and if all goes well (or not) the Vuelta again? Furthermore he just got surgery with months off the bike, so he'll be behind schedule if he'd be targeting the Giro and he wouldn't be a contender at the Tour after doing the Giro either (unless he'd do the Giro as some prep race, not for GC).

It does make sense to go Tour-Vuelta as his surgery probably have set him quite a bit back now early in the winter training.
Being in the Tour together with Vingegaard can possibly be a winning way for him if he can get the right attack going.

Also he's not that old, so he can go for the Giro next year. It could possibly be easier for him to win that than the 2023 Giro against Remco.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What do you mean major regression in the rest of the year? You're talking about someone who won a French one-day race in February, was runner-up in Tirreno-Adriatico in March, had a solid Itzulia in April, won a stage and podiumed Dauphiné in June, and won two stages and podiumed the Tour of Croatia in October. If Andy Schleck did all that, we'd all be shell shocked.

Not sure if satire.

Dauphiné obviously was part of the same form peak as the TDF. In the other races mentioned he was nowhere close to being as dominant as in the TDF. This isn't 2010 anymore. Outclassed by Pogacar in Tirreno, time gap between him and 8th place was smaller than him to 1st place. Merely "one of the guys" in Itzulia, where his most notable attacks were crashing other riders into the boardings. Cro race beating a 19 year old for 2nd place. MIA in Lombardia.

 

[Squire]

Not sure if satire.

Dauphiné obviously was part of the same form peak as the TDF. In the other races mentioned he was nowhere close to being as dominant as in the TDF. This isn't 2010 anymore. Outclassed by Pogacar in Tirreno, time gap between him and 8th place was smaller than him to 1st place. Merely "one of the guys" in Itzulia, where his most notable attacks were crashing other riders into the boardings. Cro race beating a 19 year old for 2nd place. MIA in Lombardia.

For every other Tour winner of the 21st century except Pogacar, Vingegaard's results outside of the Tour in 2022 would have been a good or decent season. I just think it's unfair to say we don't know if he's capable of replicating his Tour performance on the basis of him not dominating the rest of the season like Pogacar does (and Froome and Contador in their absolute best years). I don't think he was 'lucky' in the 2022 Tour, and I think it does show what he's capable of. I haven't heard complaints from Pogacar that he was lacking form, and the gaps down the field from Vingegaard are comparable to Pogacar's dominance. I do however agree that Roglic should take his chances on getting some favourable Tour de France circumstances, especially considering that he might not be quite ready in time for the Giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

For every other Tour winner of the 21st century except Pogacar, Vingegaard's results outside of the Tour in 2022 would have been a good or decent season. I just think it's unfair to say we don't know if he's capable of replicating his Tour performance on the basis of him not dominating the rest of the season like Pogacar does (and Froome and Contador in their absolute best years). I don't think he was 'lucky' in the 2022 Tour, and I think it does show what he's capable of. I haven't heard complaints from Pogacar that he was lacking form, and the gaps down the field from Vingegaard are comparable to Pogacar's dominance. I do however agree that Roglic should take his chances on getting some favourable Tour de France circumstances, especially considering that he might not be quite ready in time for the Giro.

That may very well be true, however, that was not the point. The point was that at no other race did he show a level anywhere close to what he has shown at the TDF. And i don't really see how that is up for debate. But even Roglic, an older generation rider, has been competitive in bigger races early season, as well as bigger races in late season.

As for whether he can replicate his form next TDF, i think he can. But i'm also curious to see how things develop on the mental side of things, which might be his biggest hurdle.

 

[pastronef]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603061225193197571

View: https://twitter.com/faustonef/status/1603061225193197571

 

[hayneplane]

Not sure if satire.

Dauphiné obviously was part of the same form peak as the TDF. In the other races mentioned he was nowhere close to being as dominant as in the TDF. This isn't 2010 anymore. Outclassed by Pogacar in Tirreno, time gap between him and 8th place was smaller than him to 1st place. Merely "one of the guys" in Itzulia, where his most notable attacks were crashing other riders into the boardings. Cro race beating a 19 year old for 2nd place. MIA in Lombardia.

Agreed very much.

T-A was a one man demonstration event as Pogacar was so far supreme that Vingegaard in 2nd was no more likely to win that race than me sat on my sofa watching the event on TV.

 

[pman]

That may very well be true, however, that was not the point. The point was that at no other race did he show a level anywhere close to what he has shown at the TDF. And i don't really see how that is up for debate. But even Roglic, an older generation rider, has been competitive in bigger races early season, as well as bigger races in late season.

As for whether he can replicate his form next TDF, i think he can. But i'm also curious to see how things develop on the mental side of things, which might be his biggest hurdle.

Yes, that's what I was trying to say. I didn't say Ving was average the rest of the year. I am just saying, he had one huge peak and the rest of the year he was nowhere near that peak. Was he good all year? Yeah, sure he was. But was other worldly in the Tour and merely a very good rider the rest of the year.

 

[Andy schleck]

Yes, that's what I was trying to say. I didn't say Ving was average the rest of the year. I am just saying, he had one huge peak and the rest of the year he was nowhere near that peak. Was he good all year? Yeah, sure he was. But was other worldly in the Tour and merely a very good rider the rest of the year.

He needs to make that huge peak 5 more times in july.

 

[RedheadDane]

 

[tobydawq]

Now I can finally get some sleep after all the thinking I had been doing about which races those two would ride.

 

[RedheadDane]

Now I can finally get some sleep after all the thinking I had been doing about which races those two would ride.

Well, this thread is about schedules, this is a schedule - or rather; two schedules, see? I'm not that terrible with numbers! - so I figured I'd post it.
Also, I like simple visualistic schedules.
And I can post pictures!

Besides; they are two of the stars on the team. I could post the schedule(s) of Vauquelin and Louvel...

 

[Eeslliw]

Nothing confirmed, but the more Roglic speaks, the more I'm drawing him on the TDF squad.

He will have to earn that spot in TDF squad. Only Jonas and Wout have fixed spot.

 

[tobydawq]

Bora have announced their brutto troup for the Giro.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604056147954212866

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1604056147954212866?t=AEPdc_2xFUBh3XC-Rm2fjw&s=19

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Bora have announced their brutto troup for the Giro.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604056147954212866

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1604056147954212866?t=AEPdc_2xFUBh3XC-Rm2fjw&s=19

Out of that group I’m taking Vlasov, Kämna, Jungels, Denz, Aleotti, Gamper, Konrad, and Fabbro. Though you can mix up Fabbro and Gamper with the other three and be fine.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Out of that group I’m taking Vlasov, Kämna, Jungels, Denz, Aleotti, Gamper, Konrad, and Fabbro. Though you can mix up Fabbro and Gamper with the other three and be fine.

I agree. If Higuita isn't riding the Tour I'd probably send Fabbro there as a climbing domestique. No hectic first week in Northern France and with Buchmann usually being allowed to ride his own race they kinda need a climbing domestique besides Schachmann, who his more of a guy for medium mountains and short, steep hills. Those 4 guys, Bennett + Van Poppel and another guy for the train (maybe Mullen) and then you add Politt, who can stagehunt and help both the sprinter and the gc rider.

 

[Earns1985]

I agree. If Higuita isn't riding the Tour I'd probably send Fabbro there as a climbing domestique. No hectic first week in Northern France and with Buchmann usually being allowed to ride his own race they kinda need a climbing domestique besides Schachmann, who his more of a guy for medium mountains and short, steep hills. Those 4 guys, Bennett + Van Poppel and another guy for the train (maybe Mullen) and then you add Politt, who can stagehunt and help both the sprinter and the gc rider.

Yeah, I also think that based on the giro long list, six riders are more or less already save for the tour.
Hindley, Buchmann, Bennett, van Poppel, Politt and Schachmann. I think they need at least one, if not a second mountain rider, if they are serious with Hindley's GC ambitions. With Keldermann and Grosschartner leaving Bora, the Team outside of the giro long list is not staked with good mountain riders anymore. So perhaps also one of two riders out of the giro long list will ride the tour in the end.

Other topic:
De Lie will not ride a grand tour in 2023, but two Monuments with Milan-San Remo and Paris Roubaix. Lotto will also in general not participate in the giro..

 

[Reynard]

Yeah, I also think that based on the giro long list, six riders are more or less already save for the tour.
Hindley, Buchmann, Bennett, van Poppel, Politt and Schachmann. I think they need at least one, if not a second mountain rider, if they are serious with Hindley's GC ambitions. With Keldermann and Grosschartner leaving Bora, the Team outside of the giro long list is not staked with good mountain riders anymore. So perhaps also one of two riders out of the giro long list will ride the tour in the end.

Other topic:
De Lie will not ride a grand tour in 2023, but two Monuments with Milan-San Remo and Paris Roubaix. Lotto will also in general not participate in the giro..

I agree with your analysis. Those 6 seems very likely and I also would add Haller to that list as well. I would guess that Mullen, Zwiehoff and Schelling are also on the long-list. With Higuita word in the press was that they want to wait until the Vuelta course is released and then they decide. I think the Tour route would be great for him to hunt stages but I don't know if that fits in that loaded team. they willhave a sprinter on the start even if Bennett isn't on the level., Meuus is also listed as option for the Tour on PCS. So the climbing departement will be relatively weak but the question is if that makes a difference it seems unlikely that Bora will be in the duty to do anything during the tour other then follow as long as possible and hunt for stages.

Out of that group I’m taking Vlasov, Kämna, Jungels, Denz, Aleotti, Gamper, Konrad, and Fabbro. Though you can mix up Fabbro and Gamper with the other three and be fine.

Those 8 would be the strongest from the long list for sure. It's also the perfect mix for that Giro if you want to go for GC. Denz and Gamper can be the bodyguards, but also don't climb bad for their type. Jungels has a big motor as well and could be up in the GC early as well as Kämna which would give them some tactical options. Konrad showed himself a good support in the Tour last year and could be a Top 15 climber in this Giro field (finished two times top 10). Aleotti is missing the breakthrough in the high mountains but is a decent allrounder on hilly to mountainous terrain. I would guess that Bora could give Benedetti one last Giro before his career closes, but he has to be in form to make the cut for sure. I'm not sure if Fabbro could be of any help. his turn in Lombardia was completely useless and really bad executed. He's also really missing the next Step in his development. The 5th place at T-A was a real outlier up until now. So couald be logical that Benedetti gets the nod as experienced Road Captain.

I'm really missing Zwiehoff from this list. He was really good in the last two GTs and seemed to be getting stronger in 22. He doesn't has result for himself, but I think as a pure domestique he can be quite valuable. A guy that can be there for bidon duty and some turns until the race gets really serious. For this race moments Bora has Konrad, Kämna and Jungels that should be enough. I'm suprised to see Palzer and Wandahl there. I don't think they should be an option if you want to go for GC especially on this course. Of course Wandahl could make a step forward and has a certain motor in the flat, but his climbing just isn't there. Palzer can climb but tbh he would be just there for the publicity he just doesn't have any race instinct or skills to be an effective domestique. I think even Haller or Schelling would be better options if you want to optimize your chances to win because they could set-up attacks or bring them back on stages 4 or 8.

 

[Red Rick]

Out of that group I’m taking Vlasov, Kämna, Jungels, Denz, Aleotti, Gamper, Konrad, and Fabbro. Though you can mix up Fabbro and Gamper with the other three and be fine.

So much for Hindley going to the Giro

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So much for Hindley going to the Giro

Someone mentioned 70k TT and Evenepoel in the same sentence.

Hindley was last seen at a gas station near Eritrea.

 

[Earns1985]

So we have Roglic, Evenepoel, Vlasov, Thomas and Almeida going to the giro now. Had my concerns, that it will become a Evenepoel one man show after the route presentation, but this looks now like a fantastic battle..

With Roglic now out of the tour the third podium spot behind Pogacar and Vingegaard is now open. Carapaz, S.Yates, Hindley, Bernal or even Landa perhaps..

 

[Big Doopie]

I find the decision really weird. The only reason Vingo won was that Pog stupidly chased down every Rog attack. One on one I will take Pog every time.

 

[Squire]

So we have Roglic, Evenepoel, Vlasov, Thomas and Almeida going to the giro now. Had my concerns, that it will become a Evenepoel one man show after the route presentation, but this looks now like a fantastic battle..

With Roglic now out of the tour the third podium spot behind Pogacar and Vingegaard is now open. Carapaz, S.Yates, Hindley, Bernal or even Landa perhaps..

Landa!! I believe! _ O _

Will also continue the theme of a current or former Sky/Ineos rider on the podium every year since 2015.

For the Giro I like Vlasov as a third favourite. Seems unbreakable in all sorts of conditions, and should presumably be a bit fresher than in the Tour this year, after having had an absolutely MASSIVE race program from January until July.

 

[RedheadDane]

I find the decision really weird. The only reason Vingo won was that Pog stupidly chased down every Rog attack. One on one I will take Pog every time.

Yes, but that tactic might not work next year. This year, he had reason - up until stage 11 at least - to think that Roglic and Vingegaard were equal threats to him.