Rider schedules and targets for 2024 (also rumours and opinions allowed)

[Mayomaniac]

Apparently Thomas will do Giro-Tour. @Libertine Seguros will get the big Alarcon vs Candido Barbosa style showdown between him and WvA.😃
Quintana and Simon Yates also seem to be confirmed for the Giro.
La Gazzetta still fantasizes about Pogacar and Remco, but apparently Almeide will ride the Giro once again.

 

[Earns1985]

Pogacar early schedule:

Figueira
Algarve
Strade
Tirreno
Milan- San Remo

This would most likely mean an interesting first clash between Evenepoel and Pogacar in Algarve with a route which favours more Evenepoel skills because of the relatively long TT.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736885167417934067

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1736885167417934067?t=aqwDMq7w1qmm5nuhVk2QNA&s=19

 

[Escarabajo]

Almeida leader for the Tour!


Tour de Suisse!!!!

 

[Earns1985]

Ayuso schedule:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737072071132201259

View: https://twitter.com/Domestique___/status/1737072071132201259

 

[RedheadDane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1740693943421976762

 

[Mayomaniac]

Ciccone: Tirreno-Catalunya-ToTA-LBL-Giro (for the gc).

 

[hayneplane]

Ciccone: Tirreno-Catalunya-ToTA-LBL-Giro (for the gc).

Seems quite a heavy pre giro schedule to me. Would have made more sense to skip Catalunya or Alps imo unless he is mainly going to just ride around Nibali style and work himself into shape by race KMs rather than training.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Seems quite a heavy pre giro schedule to me. Would have made more sense to skip Catalunya or Alps imo unless he is mainly going to just ride around Nibali style and work himself into shape by race KMs rather than training.

Apparently he won't have any race days before Tirreno.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Seems quite a heavy pre giro schedule to me. Would have made more sense to skip Catalunya or Alps imo unless he is mainly going to just ride around Nibali style and work himself into shape by race KMs rather than training.

Worked well for Simon Yates in 2021 + It used to be the traditional pre giro programme for a lot of riders around 2013-19.

 

[search]

The first parts of Felix Gall's schedule were announced as well. Main goal is the Tour de France.

• Ruta del Sol
• Paris - Nice
• Itzulia
• Liege - Bastogne - Liege
• Criterium du Dauphine
• Tour de France

 

[Bolder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736885167417934067

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1736885167417934067?t=aqwDMq7w1qmm5nuhVk2QNA&s=19

So Ayuso, Almeida, Yates and Pogacar at the Tour, or am I missing something? Not sure what Almeida adds to that group given his climbing style. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great rider but maybe not the best domestique.

But here's the problem with UAE: four top GC riders, three of whom are young. Pogacar has claimed 2 GTs this year already. So scraps for the rest, especially Almeida.

 

[Sciatic]

So Ayuso, Almeida, Yates and Pogacar at the Tour, or am I missing something? Not sure what Almeida adds to that group given his climbing style. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great rider but maybe not the best domestique.

But here's the problem with UAE: four top GC riders, three of whom are young. Pogacar has claimed 2 GTs this year already. So scraps for the rest, especially Almeida.

Glad to see Almeida will give Flèche a go. We’ve needed someone to fill the Dan Martin role of coming from 35 places back at the foot of the Mur and come back to finish in the top 5

 

[Anderis]

Interesting that Rui Costa is planning to ride Flanders this year.

With the success of riders like Pogacar or Powless in cobbled races, I feel like the division between the cobbled classics specialists and non specialists is not as pronounced as it was 5, 10 or 15 years ago.

 

[Squire]

Interesting that Rui Costa is planning to ride Flanders this year.

With the success of riders like Pogacar or Powless in cobbled races, I feel like the division between the cobbled classics specialists and non specialists is not as pronounced as it was 5, 10 or 15 years ago.

De Ronde got more climber-friendly after the changes in 2012.

 

[Berniece]

So Ayuso, Almeida, Yates and Pogacar at the Tour, or am I missing something? Not sure what Almeida adds to that group given his climbing style. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great rider but maybe not the best domestique.

But here's the problem with UAE: four top GC riders, three of whom are young. Pogacar has claimed 2 GTs this year already. So scraps for the rest, especially Almeida.

I think Almeida contractually made sure he’s never a domestique. Free roll. UAE probably wants to do what Jumbo did 2 years ago, and bet on multiple horses to try and tire Vingegaard.

 

[Anderis]

De Ronde got more climber-friendly after the changes in 2012.

The trend didn't start in 2012, it started a few years ago. The cobbled classics were often told to be something you need a lot of experience in positioning etc. and a lot of power for, which climbers usually don't have but then we've had a few riders with a climber background who did extremely well immediately after switching to cobbled races, not just Flanders but also E3, DDV etc and without their climbing performance suffering the same year. I think it may be a matter of time until we see one finishing in the top10 of Paris-Roubaix too.

This is not totally unexpected as we've always seen GC riders matching some of the best cobbled specialists on Tour de France's cobbled roads. The reason why combining climbing and cobbles was rare in the early XXI century may well have been psychological (i.e. why risk an injury in these crazy races when GTs bring a bigger prize anyway, or following Lance Armstrong's footsteps of not doing much in the first half of the year if you wanted to win a TdF), though I would still think climbing and flatter classics favour different physiques but apparently it's not as big of a deal as I've previously thought.

 

[Squire]

The trend didn't start in 2012, it started a few years ago. The cobbled classics were often told to be something you need a lot of experience in positioning etc. and a lot of power for, which climbers usually don't have but then we've had a few riders with a climber background who did extremely well immediately after switching to cobbled races, not just Flanders but also E3, DDV etc and without their climbing performance suffering the same year. I think it may be a matter of time until we see one finishing in the top10 of Paris-Roubaix too.

This is not totally unexpected as we've always seen GC riders matching some of the best cobbled specialists on Tour de France's cobbled roads. The reason why combining climbing and cobbles was rare in the early XXI century may well have been psychological (i.e. why risk an injury in these crazy races when GTs bring a bigger prize anyway, or following Lance Armstrong's footsteps of not doing much in the first half of the year if you wanted to win a TdF), though I would still think climbing and flatter classics favour different physiques but apparently it's not as big of a deal as I've previously thought.

Yes, I guess it started with Nibali in 2018 and Valverde following suit the year after. But the changes in 2012 certainly helped make it more viable for such riders. As for the other cobbled races, E3 has always been the most Ardennes-like of the bunch.

I still don't quite agree that the distinction between classics riders and GC riders has changed much in recent years. I think Nibali and Valverde were important as trailblazers who showed that it was possible for lighter riders to do well. It did of course help that they both were excellent at bike handling and positioning compared to the average GC rider. But there's also a difference between doing well and actually winning. Pogacar is rather exceptional. I don't think many other GC riders could have won RVV like he did, even if they tried. You need a lot of explosivity which is not normally exhibited by your typical GC rider, and it's quite telling how the explosive Valverde did significantly better than the more diesel-like Nibali. I don't think we will have a rush of GC riders at the start in Antwerp anytime soon. With some notable exceptions like Pogacar, the climbers are still at such a disadvantage that it's not worth making it a goal.

Paris-Roubaix is another notch up on the difficulty scale for the GC riders compared to RVV, E3 etc. While Pogacar may well be capable of going top 10 in Roubaix as well, the physical demands are very different from RVV. You can benefit from high w/kg on the hills of RVV with the current route, but PR is much more about absolute power. And having a bit of weight helps on the Roubaix cobbles. There's a reason why you even see differences between classics specialists in how well they're suited to each of the two monuments. Degenkolb is maybe the prime example.

 

[hayneplane]

Yes, I guess it started with Nibali in 2018 and Valverde following suit the year after. But the changes in 2012 certainly helped make it more viable for such riders. As for the other cobbled races, E3 has always been the most Ardennes-like of the bunch.

I still don't quite agree that the distinction between classics riders and GC riders has changed much in recent years. I think Nibali and Valverde were important as trailblazers who showed that it was possible for lighter riders to do well. It did of course help that they both were excellent at bike handling and positioning compared to the average GC rider. But there's also a difference between doing well and actually winning. Pogacar is rather exceptional. I don't think many other GC riders could have won RVV like he did, even if they tried. You need a lot of explosivity which is not normally exhibited by your typical GC rider, and it's quite telling how the explosive Valverde did significantly better than the more diesel-like Nibali. I don't think we will have a rush of GC riders at the start in Antwerp anytime soon. With some notable exceptions like Pogacar, the climbers are still at such a disadvantage that it's not worth making it a goal.

Paris-Roubaix is another notch up on the difficulty scale for the GC riders compared to RVV, E3 etc. While Pogacar may well be capable of going top 10 in Roubaix as well, the physical demands are very different from RVV. You can benefit from high w/kg on the hills of RVV with the current route, but PR is much more about absolute power. And having a bit of weight helps on the Roubaix cobbles. There's a reason why you even see differences between classics specialists in how well they're suited to each of the two monuments. Degenkolb is maybe the prime example.

I would argue it kind of started with Nibali on the muddy cobbles demolishing the field in the TDF Roubaix lite stage.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Mikel Landa:

-Will go to the TDF to support Evenepol

-Will be team leader at the Vuelta España

-Will start the season at Volta Algarve and build form through the spring

 

[postmanhat]

Ayuso schedule:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737072071132201259

View: https://twitter.com/Domestique___/status/1737072071132201259

Confirmed for The Ardennes now, at least according to PCS.

 

[Rob5091]

I would argue it kind of started with Nibali on the muddy cobbles demolishing the field in the TDF Roubaix lite stage.

If you've never seen stage 5 of the Tour 2014, it starts with pouring rain and crosswinds before the cobbles. A joy to watch, but would it have been raced today?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

If you've never seen stage 5 of the Tour 2014, it starts with pouring rain and crosswinds before the cobbles. A joy to watch, but would it have been raced today?

One of the greatest GT stages of the century.

 

[proffate]

I think Almeida contractually made sure he’s never a domestique. Free roll. UAE probably wants to do what Jumbo did 2 years ago, and bet on multiple horses to try and tire Vingegaard.

Or what Jumbo did this year at the Vuelta. If you're VLAB, how many minutes do you let Almeida take in a breakaway before you start burning doms chasing him?

Of course we've also seen the problem with this strategy --- you might be forced to back the rider you don't have that much confidence in.

 

[Sciatic]

De Ronde got more climber-friendly after the changes in 2012.

You might be looking at the race from a different viewpoint, but to me it looks like the podiums show “classic” classics riders dominating from 2012 through the 2010s. With a brief intrusion of sprinter types:

2012 Tom Boonen	Filippo Pozzato @ s.t.	Alessandro Ballan @ 1sec	256 km	42.159
2013	Fabian Cancellara 6hr 6min 1sec	Peter Sagan @ 1min 27sec	Jurgen Roelandts @ 1min 29sec	256.2 km	41.965
2014	Fabian Cancellara 6hr 15min 18sec	Greg van Avermaet @ s.t.	Sep Vanmarcke @ s.t.	259 km	41.407
2015	Alexander Kristoff 6hr 26min 32sec	Niki Terpstra @ s.t.	Greg van Avermaet @ 7sec	264.9 km	41.119
2016	Peter Sagan 6hr 10min 37sec	Fabian Cancellara @ 25sec	Sep Vanmarcke @ 28sec	255 km	41.283 km/hr
2017	Philippe Gilbert 6hr 23min 45sec	Greg van Avermaet @ 29sec	Niki Terpstra @ s.t.	259.5 km	40.573 km/hr
2018	Niki Terpstra 6hr 21min 25sec	Mads Pedersen @ 12sec	Philippe Gilbert @ 17sec	264.7 km	41.640 km/hr
2019	Alberto Bettiol 6hr 18min 49sec	Kasper Asgreen @ 14sec	Alexander Kristoff