Riders to reach 100 pro wins

[tobydawq]

100 wins is a milestone not reached by very many riders. According to PCS, only 23 riders have ever reached it, 3 of which are currently active (Cavendish, Valverde, Sagan).

So I was wondering who we can expect to join that club. I have picked 10 riders who have a realistic chance, and I would have liked to include many more, but as we all know, there is a limit to 10 options in a poll. Numbers in brackets are the current number of pro wins.

Feel free to expand in a comment if you feel that there are other riders who are set for the triple digits.

Edit:
Win tallies as per May 13th, 2024:
Démare (95 | +6)
Viviani (89 | +3)
Roglič (81 | +17)
Groenewegen (70 | +8)
Ewan (61 | +4)
Pogačar (73 | +30)
Van der Poel (49 | +10)
Van Aert (46 | +8)
Jakobsen (46 | +10)
Evenepoel (54 | +21)

 

[tobydawq]

There should maybe have been a "none of the above" option.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Oops, I didn’t do multi vote, I meant add Evenepoel, Gronewagen, and Démare on top of Pogi.

 

[Netserk]

Outside of the Belgian Nationals, Van Aert has only won outside of the WT in Tour of Britain last year while he has raced on Jumbo. He will soon be 28. He is not going to reach that milestone.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

The only rider I feel sure will never reach it is Viviani.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

The only rider I feel sure will never reach it is Viviani.

You're sure that Van der poel and van aert will?

 

[tobydawq]

The only rider I feel sure will never reach it is Viviani.

If what Roglic has shown this year is the beginning of a trend and he doesn't regain his previous level, he is not winning 36 more races, I don't think.

I also agree with Netserk that Van Aert will not reach it. Neither will Van der Poel. They have come too short of the way in a part of their careers where they have been really dominant. I don't see them continuing on this level for eight years.

 

[tobydawq]

Kristoff is on 84 by the way, and he just got a 3-year contract. With Uno-X he will probably ride a lot of smaller races. Maybe I should have included him.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

You're sure that Van der poel and van aert will?

No, but I'm not fully ready to write them off yet.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Olav Kooij will do it

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Voted for five.

Démare - too close not to make it
Pogacar - too young not to make it
Evenepoel - see above
Van Aert - 27 wins in the two years since the 2020 season restarted post-Covid, at that rate he is less than five years away from making it. Yes, he probably won't carry on the way he has for five years, but you'd also think he will start doing a few more smaller races at some point.
Jakobsen - churning out the wins at the same rate as Van Aert since returning to form post-crash, yet I feel he hasn't hit his peak yet. Only concern is the rate at which sprinters replace each other at the top lately...

Viviani has stalled completely, Roglic is stalling just a little too early, Ewan and Groenewegen aren't win machines anymore either (but could make it if they return to their best), and Van der Poel can't grind wins very easily (and doesn't have the best skillset for that anyway) when he's doing two other disciplines too.

 

[Blanco]

Demare will do it first, than Pogacar, and maybe Evenepoel

 

[tobydawq]

Philipsen has 20 but if he can keep up what he has been doing the last year, he is definitely in with a shot too.

De Lie and Kooij are too young to make a meaningful assessment of IMO.

 

[tobydawq]

There is another rider with 15 wins over the last 18 months: Ethan Hayter.

That one would really surprise me but he is racking the wins up quite quickly (only on 16 in total) for the moment. But I think that he will stall drastically when he gets a schedule with bigger races.

 

[Bonimenier]

Demare, Pogacar and Evenepoel have the biggest chance to reach 100 imo.

Roglic, van Aert and Van der Poel might have started riding on the road too late to get to 100.

Ewan, Groenewegen and Jakobsen could get there. I'm giving Jakobsen the biggest chance of the 3.

Viviani won't get there.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Annemiek van Vleuten is in the 90s now, I'm sure she'll get there in the time she has remaining.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Voted Demare, Pogacar, Jakobsen, Evenepoel and Viviani.
The latter because he's close enough and i think he will start riding the lowest level pro races more and more.

 

[Sandisfan]

I would like to see, after this thread stalls, who will be next to get to 100 WT Wins thread. I think, not good at looking these things up, Sagan may have reached that (WT 100 Wins) since he has a higher portion of his wins in WT Races.

P.S. I could be way off on Sagan's WT Wins total.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I would like to see, after this thread stalls, who will be next to get to 100 WT Wins thread. I think, not good at looking these things up, Sagan may have reached that (WT 100 Wins) since he has a higher portion of his wins in WT Races.

P.S. I could be way off on Sagan's WT Wins total.

95 not including his WCC titles.
EDIT: PCS counts points jerseys as wins, as Toby pointed out, so subtract those (i counted 26).

Results for Peter Sagan

Career results for Peter Sagan with filter options on distance, date, type of race and vertical meters.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[SHAD0W93]

Demare should reach it no problem. Kristoff and Viviani could but might need some luck going their way. I think Ewan and Groenewegen might be too far with sharing wins with Jakobsen and Philipsen. Jakobsen and Philipsen would need multiple 10 plus win seasons. Roglic might reach it if he focused on smaller races. Pogacar and Evenepoel if they keep up this win total each year should fly by 100. WVA and MVDP could if they focused on smaller races as well.

I would like to see, after this thread stalls, who will be next to get to 100 WT Wins thread. I think, not good at looking these things up, Sagan may have reached that (WT 100 Wins) since he has a higher portion of his wins in WT Races.

P.S. I could be way off on Sagan's WT Wins total.

Would we count wins when there wasn’t a WT but the races would become WT when it started? Or what would the rules be for older riders like Valverde, Greipel, Cipo, Cav, etc.

 

[tobydawq]

95 not including his WCC titles.

Results for Peter Sagan

Career results for Peter Sagan with filter options on distance, date, type of race and vertical meters.

www.procyclingstats.com

That includes points jerseys. The real number is around 70.

 

[KZD]

Analysing rider by rider

As said above Demare is too close not to make it. Even if his level decreases quickly in the next seasons he has those small French races in which he got most of his wins in the first place.

Viviani could reach 100 wins if he was not at Ineos and focusing on the track (just 1 win this season) but since that seems to be his main goal I can't see him reaching that mark. Kristoff is going better than the Italian but he might be a bit too old and slow to reach that mark.

Roglič likely started cycling at a too late to reach that mark. He would need around 4/5 good seasons to reach there and at 32 and with his injury rate that's unlikely.

Groenewegen is already 29 so despite being very fast I can't see him reach the 100 mark if he lasts for 3/4 more years at the top. A similar argument goes to Ewan that even has the drawback of having new star De Lie on his team.

Pogačar should absolutely get there. Even in a season where he didn't him any GT or monument (yet) he has 13 wins so unless he starts declining at 26/27 he will make it. Pethaps the only rider on this list that will surpass Demare on overall career wins.

Van der Poel is too injury prone and MTB focused to make it 100. Plus unlike Van Aert he has a few wins of when he was 21/22 in minor races. Out of this list he is the rider that I see finishing his career with the least wins (in the 50-60 range).

Van Aert left me a bit indecisive. Like MVDP he is already 27 but if continued with the rate of 13 per season of last year he could have make, the problem is that this year he has only 8 so far which means that he needs to turn his second places into first places for the next seasons and ultimately I think that he is not fast enough for that so probably will fall around the 80/90 mark.

Jakobsen is likely the fastest man of this list but given his inability to climb well, with Grand Tours becoming less sprinter overall friendly and riders like Kooij or De Lie coming, I can't see him getting into 100 wins.

Evenepoel is another one that left me indecisive. At 22 he is the youngest of this list and has already and impressive tally but despite having already 11 wins this season before the Vuelta, he should start to race more highly profile races in the next years and less non-WT races and he doesn't have the sprint of a Pogačar to help him so his life will be harder. However given his age and talent I still think he just makes past 100.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I voted Pogacar and Evenepoel (but meant to vote Demare as well). I think they are by far the most likely which is interesting since sprinters are usually the ones to reach most wins. Jakobsen could as well, but he hasn't dominated as much this year as I thought he would, so his star has faded a bit for me.

 

[tobydawq]

I would like to see, after this thread stalls, who will be next to get to 100 WT Wins thread. I think, not good at looking these things up, Sagan may have reached that (WT 100 Wins) since he has a higher portion of his wins in WT Races.

P.S. I could be way off on Sagan's WT Wins total.

According to my spreadsheet (which on this parameter is not as thorougly fact-checked as the win stat) this is how the current pros rank in WT wins (including Olympic road races and World Championships road races):

1: Sagan - 72
2: Cavendish - 69
3: Valverde - 60 (includes wins from 2003 and 2004 in future WT races)
4: Roglic - 44
5: Froome - 35
6: Gilbert - 32
6: Sam Bennett - 32
8: Pogacar - 31
9: Ewan - 30
10: Viviani - 27
10: Matthews - 27
12: Alaphilippe - 25
13: Van Aert - 24
13: Porte - 24
15: Boasson Hagen - 23
15: Nibali - 23
15: Quintana - 23
18: Gaviria - 22
19: Démare - 21
20: Degenkolb - 20
20: Simon Yates - 20

So, in conclusion, 100 WT wins is impossible. Unless, maybe, your name is Tadej Pogacar.

 

[Blanco]

According to my spreadsheet (which on this parameter is not as thorougly fact-checked as the win stat) this is how the current pros rank in WT wins (including Olympic road races and World Championships road races):

1: Sagan - 72
2: Cavendish - 69
3: Valverde - 60 (includes wins from 2003 and 2004 in future WT races)
4: Roglic - 44
5: Froome - 35
6: Gilbert - 32
6: Sam Bennett - 32
8: Pogacar - 31
9: Ewan - 30
10: Viviani - 27
10: Matthews - 27
12: Alaphilippe - 25
13: Van Aert - 24
13: Porte - 24
15: Boasson Hagen - 23
15: Nibali - 23
15: Quintana - 23
18: Gaviria - 22
19: Démare - 21
20: Degenkolb - 20
20: Simon Yates - 20

So, in conclusion, 100 WT wins is impossible. Unless, maybe, your name is Tadej Pogacar.

Yep. Only Merckx is way above that number (if we count Super Prestige Pernod as a WT predecessor). Cipollini is maybe close, Van Looy, De Vlaeminck and Kelly too, although I think they're slightly below that milestone.