Riders to reach 100 pro wins

[Billie]

First Cycling do an approximation for older riders (mostly based on the SPP)

Of those you mention:

Merckx 153
Cipollini 94
Van Looy 84
Kelly 75
De Vlaeminck 58

Hinault's 85 seems to be the best of the rest

Petacchi also above 70.

53 GT stages
10 Tirreno
3 Paris-Nice
2 Romandie
1 Suisse
1 Catalunya
San remo
Paris-Tours

Also won stages in Pologne before 2005 but those shouldn't count as WT.

Seems like 100 'WT' is a barrier only crossed by Merckx

 

[Netserk]

I obviously meant that Démare, Pogacar and Remco are the only ones to have more than 50 %, not that more than 50 % of people voted exclusively on those three...

Then you should have written that instead. It is clear what the strict meaning of it was, and that it was false. And I know that you knew that.

 

[Red Rick]

What about Jakobsen?

Due to the sheer bad luck of me forgetting him he will never win again.

Jakobsen is the most 50/50 of them I guess? Top sprinters can rack them up so quickly in a great year with the right schedule, but they can also fall off the quickest.

 

[tobydawq]

Then you should have written that instead. It is clear what the strict meaning of it was, and that it was false. And I know that you knew that.

I honestly didn't put too much thought into what I wrote.

And it wasn't an attempt to snap at you or Red Rick but just to conclude that it seems like those three are what the forum expects to reach 100 wins.

Do you think there are other riders who are more likely to reach 100 wins than any of the 10 in the polls?

 

[tobydawq]

Due to the sheer bad luck of me forgetting him he will never win again.

Jakobsen is the most 50/50 of them I guess? Top sprinters can rack them up so quickly in a great year with the right schedule, but they can also fall off the quickest.

True, but it seems to have fallen a bit out of fashion for top sprinters to really rack up the numbers in a single season. The last 15+ season of anybody was Viviani in 2018 (with 18 wins - Groenewegen had 15 in 2019). And before that you have to go back to 2015 where Kristoff got 20 and Greipel got 16. In 2014, Greipel got 16, and in 2013 it was really crazy with Sagan getting 22, Cavendish 19 and Kittel 16.

 

[Netserk]

I honestly didn't put too much thought into what I wrote.

And it wasn't an attempt to snap at you or Red Rick but just to conclude that it seems like those three are what the forum expects to reach 100 wins.

Do you think there are other riders who are more likely to reach 100 wins than any of the 10 in the polls?

I think Rogla and Van der Poel are the least likely to make it to 100. Philipsen is a better bet.

 

[Bonimenier]

If Mareczko would have kept farming Asian 2.1 races, he would have had a great chance to reach 100. His 7 stage wins + GC in a 9 stage race was brilliant.

 

[Blanco]

First thing I notice is that TA only appears twice in the list, while it should appear over 20 times (stage victories + GCs)

Tirreno, it seems, was not part of the SPP before 1980...

By FirstCycling top 10 are:
Merckx 153
Cipollini 94
Hinault 85
Van Looy 84
Maertens 79
Kelly 75
Jalabert 74
Petacchi 71
Sagan 69
Cavendish 68

WC and Olympics are not included.

 

[Netserk]

Seems like 100 'WT' is a barrier only crossed by Merckx

If G-W, E3 and De Panne count, then Cipo too.

 

[Parker]

If Mareczko would have kept farming Asian 2.1 races, he would have had a great chance to reach 100. His 7 stage wins + GC in a 9 stage race was brilliant.

If they'd made the Tour of Langkawi Grand Tour length, Andrea Guardini would have got to 100

 

[shalgo]

Due to the sheer bad luck of me forgetting him he will never win again.

Jakobsen is the most 50/50 of them I guess? Top sprinters can rack them up so quickly in a great year with the right schedule, but they can also fall off the quickest.

Yes, when the 29-year-old Kittel got his 86th victory on stage 11 of the 2017 Tour de France, who would have guessed that he would retire two years later with only 89 career victories?

 

[tobydawq]

Yes, when the 29-year-old Kittel got his 86th victory on stage 11 of the 2017 Tour de France, who would have guessed that he would retire two years later with only 89 career victories?

Not to mention that was his fifth stage win that Tour!

His 2015 season had been a bit of a warning about what could happen, though.

 

[tobydawq]

According to my spreadsheet (which on this parameter is not as thorougly fact-checked as the win stat) this is how the current pros rank in WT wins (including Olympic road races and World Championships road races):

1: Sagan - 72
2: Cavendish - 69
3: Valverde - 60 (includes wins from 2003 and 2004 in future WT races)
4: Roglic - 44
5: Froome - 35
6: Gilbert - 32
6: Sam Bennett - 32
8: Pogacar - 31
9: Ewan - 30
10: Viviani - 27
10: Matthews - 27
12: Alaphilippe - 25
13: Van Aert - 24
13: Porte - 24
15: Boasson Hagen - 23
15: Nibali - 23
15: Quintana - 23
18: Gaviria - 22
19: Démare - 21
20: Degenkolb - 20
20: Simon Yates - 20

So, in conclusion, 100 WT wins is impossible. Unless, maybe, your name is Tadej Pogacar.

I started doing this in 2016, so I also have numbers for all the riders who retired since that year. These are the 10 riders retiring in that period who obtained the most WorldTour wins:

1: Greipel - 56
2: Cancellara - 46
3: Contador - 43
4: Purito - 35
5: Boonen - 34
6: Tony Martin - 33
7: Kittel - 32
8: Bennati - 22
9: Samuel Sánchez - 19
9: Gerrans - 19

 

[Netserk]

I started doing this in 2016, so I also have numbers for all the riders who retired since that year. These are the 10 riders retiring in that period who obtained the most WorldTour wins:

1: Greipel - 56
2: Cancellara - 46
3: Contador - 43
4: Purito - 35
5: Boonen - 34
6: Tony Martin - 33
7: Kittel - 32
8: Bennati - 22
9: Samuel Sánchez - 19
9: Gerrans - 19

How do you treat races like Omloop, Strade and Tour of California?

 

[tobydawq]

How do you treat races like Omloop, Strade and Tour of California?

Not WT before 2017, then WT after. I think. I may in my bashful youthness have decreed that Strade was worthy of WT even before it was elevated but I honestly don't remember.

 

[Netserk]

So the 2003 and 2004 races that are treated as if they were WT are only those that would be part of the PT in 2005?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Cavendish' number is not that high. I can count to 68 when looking at his list of wins on PCS. Plus his WCRR which is included in my list.

I think they’re counting races that became WT too as some of the wins were in races that became WT at a different time like California.

 

[Sciatic]

Not WT before 2017, then WT after. I think. I may in my bashful youthness have decreed that Strade was worthy of WT even before it was elevated but I honestly don't remember.

Wouldn’t that be more like brash youthfulness?

 

[tobydawq]

Wouldn’t that be more like brash youthfulness?

Probably

 

[hayneplane]

If Mareczko would have kept farming Asian 2.1 races, he would have had a great chance to reach 100. His 7 stage wins + GC in a 9 stage race was brilliant.

That must have been the dullest race in history considering he could get dropped on a traffic calming speed bump

 

[Mosul]

The big question about Pogacar and Evenepoel is not if they reach 100 but when they reach 100. Ten riders have reached 100 before their 30th birthday. I think the top 3 are untouchable but Hinault's 4th place in this list can be beaten.

Saronni 24y + 268d
Merckx 25y + 4d
Maertens 25y + 72d
Hinault 27y + 189d
Sagan 27y + 225d
Cavendish 27y + 360d
De Vlaeminck 28y + 275d
Van Looy 29y + 69d
Jalabert 29y + 131d
Kelly 29y + 273d

 

[skippo12]

The big question about Pogacar and Evenepoel is not if they reach 100 but when they reach 100. Ten riders have reached 100 before their 30th birthday. I think the top 3 are untouchable but Hinault's 4th place in this list can be beaten.

Saronni 24y + 268d
Merckx 25y + 4d
Maertens 25y + 72d
Hinault 27y + 189d
Sagan 27y + 225d
Cavendish 27y + 360d
De Vlaeminck 28y + 275d
Van Looy 29y + 69d
Jalabert 29y + 131d
Kelly 29y + 273d

Time to mention Andy Schleck again? Guaranteed to finish on the Tour podium for at least 5-10 years. Or even a lesser more recent example. Pog winning the next five TdFs.
Things can change quickly. Within 2-3 years. Or even year to year. Injuries, clinic stuff, early decline, better opponent...

Predictions are fun and right now I would agree that both are on the right trajectory but they still have a long way to go.

 

[Mosul]

Time to mention Andy Schleck again?

He's 37 years old and needs 89 more wins. I don't think he's going to do it.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Kristoff making his run at 100.

 

[tobydawq]

Kristoff making his run at 100.

I think my lack of including him in this poll must have spurred him on.