Riders to reach 100 pro wins

[Rockestar_33]

Can UAE do it?

9 wins in 13 race days essentially (Including Guangxi GC), gonna be tough.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

9 wins in 13 race days essentially (Including Guangxi GC), gonna be tough.

Just send Pog there instead.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Demare will retire after Paris Tour. Another rider unable to get 100 wins.
I'm pretty sure the next guy winning 100 races is Remco Evenepoel.

 

[RedheadDane]

I can't help but notice that someone hasn't updated the list in over a year...

 

[tobydawq]

I think my votes for Ewan, Groenewegen and Jakobsen were ill-advised.

I cannot change the poll options, so I'm thinking of making a separate poll thread at the end of the season to give new life to the discussion (I know 100 is just a number, but it can still be a fun thing to think about). Maybe in style with PantaniLives' annual who will win a GT thread.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Just send Pog there instead.

Pog will treat them as post season recovery rides and voila: 100+ wins!

Gianetti: "Tadej, as a reward for your season we are funding you holidays in China. Take your bike, some recovery rides with amateurs can happen".

 

[Berniece]

I think my votes for Ewan, Groenewegen and Jakobsen were ill-advised.

I cannot change the poll options, so I'm thinking of making a separate poll thread at the end of the season to give new life to the discussion(I know 100 is just a number, but it can still be a fun thing to think about). Maybe in style with PantaniLives' annual who will win a GT thread.

That's a good idea, because like you said you can't change the options and this is something that keeps changing.

 

[Wyndbrook]

So close, but Viviani, Demare and Kristoff all retiring just short of the magic number.

 

[Netserk]

Candidates:

91 - Rogla
67 - Evenepoel
65 - Merlier
60 - Pedersen
58 - Philipsen
47 - Kooij
33 - De Lie
25 - Milan
19 - Magnier
18 - Del Toro
12 - Brennan

I think Milan and Del Toro are least likely to make it, but hard to say if UAE will have the bull on the farm for many years. Rogla to be the next one.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Rogla to be the next one.

If the reports of him retiring at the end of next season are correct, it's going to be difficult. Nine wins is a tall order when you only won three times this year and eight times the year before it. Only way I see it happening if next year is his last is if the Vuelta is his sole GT.

Of those eleven, I think only Evenepoel is odds on to make it, although I guess Brennan has a good shot if he is really the next alien. The sprinters are all going to suffer from being in each other's way and the ever-declining number of flat WT sprints, Pedersen is becoming slower, I don't trust De Lie to be consistent, and Del Toro is not going to be on the Hirschi schedule forever.

Is it too early to consider listing Seixas and/or AWP? Of course they could still end up anywhere at this point, but being in the top-10 most likely riders to crack 100 is about having a high ceiling, not a high median outcome.

 

[Netserk]

If the reports of him retiring at the end of next season are correct, it's going to be difficult. Nine wins is a tall order when you only won three times this year and eight times the year before it. Only way I see it happening if next year is his last is if the Vuelta is his sole GT.

Of those eleven, I think only Evenepoel is odds on to make it, although I guess Brennan has a good shot if he is really the next alien. The sprinters are all going to suffer from being in each other's way and the ever-declining number of flat WT sprints, Pedersen is becoming slower, I don't trust De Lie to be consistent, and Del Toro is not going to be on the Hirschi schedule forever.

Is it too early to consider listing Seixas and/or AWP? Of course they could still end up anywhere at this point, but being in the top-10 most likely riders to crack 100 is about having a high ceiling, not a high median outcome.

I think Rogla continues past next year.

There are plenty of smaller flat races, and at least some of the sprinters do a lot of those. Pedersen will farm them the rest of his career. Since his crash in the Tour last year, he has won 18 times despite a mid sprint.

Edit: I also think a realistic program optimal for wins for Rogla is something like:

Tirreno OR Itzulia
Catalunya
Flèche
Romandie
Suisse
Burgos
Vuelta
Italian classics

 

[Peyroteo94]

Candidates:

91 - Rogla
67 - Evenepoel
65 - Merlier
60 - Pedersen
58 - Philipsen
47 - Kooij
33 - De Lie
25 - Milan
19 - Magnier
18 - Del Toro
12 - Brennan

I think Milan and Del Toro are least likely to make it, but hard to say if UAE will have the bull on the farm for many years. Rogla to be the next one.

Roglic will not reach 100 wins.
Remco is the next one and only because he is the best TT rider by far. It's getting harder for him to win road races maybe because he is not farming low category races anymore like he used in 2019-2022.
This is the main reason riders like Del Toro will slow down in wins. His calendar will be full more and more with WT races and he will not farm anymore to these semi classics.

Kristoff and Demare almost got there because they spent their career racing a lot of low category races.
The only anomaly is Pogacar, who can get 15-20 WT wins "per" season.

 

[Jan the Man]

Assuming they stay healthy-

Remco is a certainty to do- probably during the 2028 season going by average of wins per season but if he has an exceptional 2026 doing it in 2027 is possible.

Roglic - could do it but depends on his itinerary next year - he is not going to farm races and looks to have lost some of his punch this year.

Philipsen (turning 28) and Pederson (turning 30) are technically young enough to get there but it would require each to have at least two more exceptional seasons to get then close.

Kooij can get there but depends on race programme how mych he can farm.

Del Torro and Brennan are very young but have had impressive starts to their careers

 

[Netserk]

Roglic will not reach 100 wins.
Remco is the next one and only because he is the best TT rider by far. It's getting harder for him to win road races maybe because he is not farming low category races anymore like he used in 2019-2022.
This is the main reason riders like Del Toro will slow down in wins. His calendar will be full more and more with WT races and he will not farm anymore to these semi classics.

Kristoff and Demare almost got there because they spent their career racing a lot of low category races.
The only anomaly is Pogacar, who can get 15-20 WT wins "per" season.

Name, wins to go, number of wins each of the past three seasons:

Evenepoel: 33 | 13, 9, 8
Merlier: 35 | 11, 16, 15

Merlier has not slowed down, he is at his peak now. He needs to be considerably worse from 2027 onwards or suddenly stop racing small races to not get there before Evenepoel.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Name, wins to go, number of wins each of the past three seasons:

Evenepoel: 33 | 13, 9, 8
Merlier: 35 | 11, 16, 15

But you are forgetting an important factor: Age.
Even if Merlier's best years have been after his 30s, he is getting older and older and sprinters normally don't win a lot after 35.
Merlier is almost 33 years old, I don't see him winning 15 races per year after 2026.

Evenepoel needs 8 wins per season during 4 years. It's almost winning every TT he races, easy for him.

 

[Netserk]

But you are forgetting an important factor: Age.
Even if Merlier's best years have been after his 30s, he is getting older and older and sprinters normally don't win a lot after 35.
Merlier is almost 33 years old, I don't see him winning 15 races per year after 2026.

Evenepoel needs 8 wins per season during 4 years. It's almost winning every TT he races, easy for him.

Who are the comparable sprinters who were both at their fastest and most durable after 30? Merlier has little mileage, so his age misleads.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Who are the comparable sprinters who were both at their fastest and most durable after 30?

We need to see after 33 years because he will be 33 in 3 weeks.
The sprinter (after his 33rd birthday) who was still very fast and I remember the most is Cipo.
I don't see many more, probably Petacchi (who won a green jersey in 2010 IIRC), Greipel and Mcween.
Nowadays, we don't have many sprint races/stages. This is important too.

 

[Netserk]

We need to see after 33 years because he will be 33 in 3 weeks.
The sprinter (after his 33rd birthday) who was still very fast and I remember the most is Cipo.
I don't see many more, probably Petacchi (who won a green jersey in 2010 IIRC), Greipel and Mcween.
Nowadays, we don't have many sprint races/stages. This is important too.

There's more to aging and career trajectory than days since birth. Merlier is at his best now, the past two years have by far been his most successful. Petacchi had his peak in 03/04, and without his ban he would have won even more than he did since then.

There's nothing in how he performs or in his career trajectory that indicate that Merlier will be clearly worse next year than this year. He is overwhelmingly likely to surpass Evenepoel in career victories after next season (mostly because he will do more small races), and then he needs an injury or a sudden break in his career trajectory to decline fast, or Evenepoel to have Pogi'ish seasons.

I agree that Evenepoel is more certain to get there eventually, but I think Merlier is more likely to get to 80, 90 and 100 first.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Who are the comparable sprinters who were both at their fastest and most durable after 30? Merlier has little mileage, so his age misleads.

Greipel was IMO at his very best the year he turned 33, so the same age Merlier was now. Only managed another 26 wins after that season, despite being way more prolific than Merlier and continuing until after his 39th birthday.

And Merlier was doing full CX seasons with a side helping of road races in the first part of his career, so he has more mileage than his road numbers suggest.

 

[Netserk]

Greipel was IMO at his very best the year he turned 33, so the same age Merlier was now. Only managed another 26 wins after that season, despite being way more prolific than Merlier and continuing until after his 39th birthday.

And Merlier was doing full CX seasons with a side helping of road races in the first part of his career, so he has more mileage than his road numbers suggest.

What exactly do you mean by that?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

What exactly do you mean by that?

Last I checked, 132 wins at the end of the year you turn 33 is more than 65. And even if you only look at the seasons after turning 30, Greipel was on a run of 19, 13, 16 and 16 wins in a year at the end of 2015, clearly ahead of Merlier's numbers.

 

[Netserk]

Last I checked, 132 wins at the end of the year you turn 33 is more than 65. And even if you only look at the seasons after turning 30, Greipel was on a run of 19, 13, 16 and 16 wins in a year at the end of 2015, clearly ahead of Merlier's numbers.

Fair.

While I agree that 2015 was his best season, I don't think he was as good a sprinter as Merlier is, and that it was more to do with poor seasons of Cav and especially Kittel. This year, Merlier is simply at a higher peak than what his opposition can manage. So with that in mind, I think the trajectory of Merlier is far more promising, while I acknowledge that he will have to win a lot in small races to get the opportunities needed.

 

[Peyroteo94]

There's more to aging and career trajectory than days since birth. Merlier is at his best now, the past two years have by far been his most successful. Petacchi had his peak in 03/04, and without his ban he would have won even more than he did since then.

There's nothing in how he performs or in his career trajectory that indicate that Merlier will be clearly worse next year than this year. He is overwhelmingly likely to surpass Evenepoel in career victories after next season (mostly because he will do more small races), and then he needs an injury or a sudden break in his career trajectory to decline fast, or Evenepoel to have Pogi'ish seasons.

I agree that Evenepoel is more certain to get there eventually, but I think Merlier is more likely to get to 80, 90 and 100 first.

Age is still important. Roglic started late and he is fading. It's very hard to be competitive when you are in your late 30s. I still think Merlier will not win 100 races because they have way less sprint stages compared to 20 years ago and they are very prone to crashes. It's rare the sprinter who never had a bad crash.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I think my votes for Ewan, Groenewegen and Jakobsen were ill-advised.

I cannot change the poll options, so I'm thinking of making a separate poll thread at the end of the season to give new life to the discussion (I know 100 is just a number, but it can still be a fun thing to think about). Maybe in style with PantaniLives' annual who will win a GT thread.

That would be an enjoyable thread.

Could I suggest a table or similar in the first or second post that can be updated every six months or whatever, so that tracking how close they are to the century can be tracked in a post that is easily found.

 

[tobydawq]

That would be an enjoyable thread.

Could I suggest a table or similar in the first or second post that can be updated every six months or whatever, so that tracking how close they are to the century can be tracked in a post that is easily found.

You could.