I think it might be more likely than expected. Every teams DS will be telling their team to get ahead of the race before the fireworks otherwise it’s game over. That Pedersen group was really strong in 2023 and it made the favourites work hard for their win.Public Notice to MVDP: don't get caught behind in a split, under no circumstances are you to attack the Pog, let him tow you and bury him in the sprint.
I'm hoping a breakaway forms and the Pog and the MVP look at each other till it's too late. (This is unlikely but would be the most interesting outcome.)