Ronde van Vlaanderen 2026, monument, April 5 (men's)

[vappa]

As opposed to Wellens and Narváez also not being available this year?

It's not about X and Y specific riders but about nobody crashing within that particular race, I'm sure you know that. They'll just replace them this year, Johansen is going as his shape is very good

 

[jotafap]

Only chance of Pogacar winning is if he drops everyone else. It's not like he has a choice.

I also don't understand why this doesn't happen more often. I see Evenepoel complain at least 5 times a year that they don't want to work with him, because he'll drop them later. Everyone works with Pogacar to be dropped later.

If the two go solo well before the last passage of the Kwaremont, then yes, Poga clearly has a choice, as he doesn’t really mind getting caught at that point, he just needs to tire his opponents (exactly how it happened last year). In MVDP’s case, last year’s scenario could be repeated, but of course there is also a strong possibility that he rides away from everyone except Pogacar on the final Kwaremont or the Paterberg.

 

[Pippo_San]

If no mistakes or bad luck happens this has Tadej written all over.
Attacks coming at every berg until everyone is dropped.
I don't feel like MVDP can honestly follow after seeing MSR but who knows.
Certainly PR is a different beast to tame.

 

[Berniece]

In MVDP’s case, last year’s scenario could be repeated, but of course there is also a strong possibility that he rides away from everyone except Pogacar on the final Kwaremont or the Paterberg.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. MVDP is strong enough to ride away from everyone not named Pogacar, and not be caught. So if he wants, he could just ride in the wheel of Pogacar as long as he wants. There is the risk, that there's this small group of riders that come back, but normally F. Vermeersch should be part of that group who can control it for Pogacar.

 

[YavorD]

Only chance of Pogacar winning is if he drops everyone else. It's not like he has a choice.

I also don't understand why this doesn't happen more often. I see Evenepoel complain at least 5 times a year that they don't want to work with him, because he'll drop them later. Everyone works with Pogacar to be dropped later.

Yes, the former is true. However, if you have strong secondary break with a considerable gap the only chance for VdP winning is catching to that group, so he has as much reasons to work, as Pogacar. And if he knows (both are friends, aren't they) that Pogacar won't give him a free ride, he has no other choice but help.

Pogacar gets to work mostly with star riders.
I think it's in the mentality of the star riders to work for their chances rather than play games.
If he (Evenepoel) is stucked with Pogacar/Van Aert/Pidcock/Van Der Poel etc, they will work as well.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's not about X and Y specific riders but about nobody crashing within that particular race, I'm sure you know that. They'll just replace them this year, Johansen is going as his shape is very good

Johansen is not exactly a like-for-like replacement for Wellens or Narváez. Without the two of them there, only Vermeersch and to a lesser extent Morgado have the explosivity to do more than setting a consistent pace for a long duration of time, and a consistent pace is not enough to make the race hard early.

Or to put it another way: if you take the whole UAE squad and pick six riders to make Ronde as hard as possible, then when everyone is healthy, Wellens and Narváez are two of the three first riders you pick (together with Vermeersch). The seventh- and eighth-best options now replacing them just aren't going to be able to fill that hole, and therefore just like last year UAE will have to manage their resources a little bit when it comes to setting up Pogacar.

 

[Brullnux]

Pogacar massive favorite, but MVDP can win if he realizes Pogi is the massive favorite and rides like he understands what it means.

For all the talk that he wouldn't do this, I remember van der Poel basically not doing a single bit of work with Pogacar during last year's MSR, apart from some cursory turns on the flat which didn't affect him too much. He has it within himself to Gerrans it, no doubt.

 

[vappa]

Johansen is not exactly a like-for-like replacement for Wellens or Narváez. Without the two of them there, only Vermeersch and to a lesser extent Morgado have the explosivity to do more than setting a consistent pace for a long duration of time, and a consistent pace is not enough to make the race hard early.

Or to put it another way: if you take the whole UAE squad and pick six riders to make Ronde as hard as possible, then when everyone is healthy, Wellens and Narváez are two of the three first riders you pick (together with Vermeersch). The seventh- and eighth-best options now replacing them just aren't going to be able to fill that hole, and therefore just like last year UAE will have to manage their resources a little bit when it comes to setting up Pogacar.

They don't need a new Wellens, they sneed someone to pull for the 2 hours after the break goes, he's perfect for that. Obviously they can't replace Wellens but last year they had to go without anything from him, even tho they expected big things

 

[cafe_rider]

They don't need a new Wellens, they sneed someone to pull for the 2 hours after the break goes, he's perfect for that. Obviously they can't replace Wellens but last year they had to go without anything from him, even tho they expected big things

If Morgado can be moved to near the front he can make climbs hard - he put in a massive shift last year after Wellens and Narvaez were out. Johansen and Bjerg/ Herregodts could do the early pace setting, then Politt (as long as none of them out with crashes). Oliveira to position Morgado and he can do the lead out to 2nd Kwaremont. Vermeersch to mark as he would not be able to survive Kwaremont 1st acceleration anyway. All sound good in theory of course!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Morgado can be moved to near the front he can make climbs hard - he put in a massive shift last year after Wellens and Narvaez were out. Johansen and Bjerg/ Herregodts could do the early pace setting, then Politt (as long as none of them out with crashes). Oliveira to position Morgado and he can do the lead out to 2nd Kwaremont. Vermeersch to mark as he would not be able to survive Kwaremont 1st acceleration anyway. All sound good in theory of course!

Politt can pace any terrain. From flats to mountains. He was 3rd and 5th in Flandres and should do his job well.

 

[Pippo_San]

The only thing that can arguably disrupt Tadej's plans is an in form Wout. Keeping tabs with MVDP is a thing. But with the two of them? Multiple scenarios involving ambushes and mind games might happen leading to a sprint situation or an unexpected break.

 

[Escarabajo]

If we follow the trend we should know who is going to win:

The winners of 2020s editions:
2025: Pogacar
2024: Van der Poel
2023: Pogacar
2022: Van der Poel

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If we follow the trend we should know who is going to win:

The winners of 2020s editions:
2025: Pogacar
2024: Van der Poel
2023: Pogacar
2022: Van der Poel

Yes, Van der Poel wins on even years (2020, 2022, 2024) and it's 2026 now.
Pogacar's results in MSR in the last 5 years were: 5, 4, 3, 3, 1. Last year he broke the perfect trend.

 

[Oldman]

If MVP doesn't work with Pogacar, he will not win for sure.
Chances of beating Pogacar if MVP works (a litllr bit less) with him: 25%

Chances of beating Pogacar if MVP doesn't work with him: Probably lower than 10%.

IMO, bar crashes or mechanicals, we need option number 2 if we don't want to see Pogacar winning alone

"we need option 2 if we don't want to see Pogacar winning alone" Who is "we" ? Just say "I don't want to see Pogacar winning alone" or "I don't want to see Pogacar win".
MvP was tired after this weekend and should be able to rally. Pogacar, likewise should be good to go. Seeing a great race with others taking advantage of that much power in a break could yield a great surprise; like PR can.

 

[Oldman]

Only chance of Pogacar winning is if he drops everyone else. It's not like he has a choice.

I also don't understand why this doesn't happen more often. I see Evenepoel complain at least 5 times a year that they don't want to work with him, because he'll drop them later. Everyone works with Pogacar to be dropped later.

Definitely two different arguments. Pogacar can outsprint Remco, Mathieu (on a good day) and most anyone else if they all go the distance. Those that work with Pogacar know they're closer to a sure podium which may be the best result they could expect.
Not working with Remco can be about trying to get a draft during his hero break efforts and knowing he'll pull off and gesticulate for a bit. Not much upside in that scenario. Best strategy is to be 3 riders back of Remco's efforts so those conditions don't exist and energy isn't wasted. Pogacar and MvP get down to work and you hold on....

 

[Sciatic]

I sometimes fantasize that we could have some elite riders get into an early break who then could be around and a factor ( though not winning) by the time they reach the final Kwaremont ascent. That used to happen
on occasion but it seems the race is now too hard (especially the new course) and the top teams too strong (the leash is shorter) to make that happen. That why I say fantasy not reality.

 

[canina82]

As opposed to Wellens and Narváez also not being available this year?

Last year, UAE was reduced to 4 riders (to help Pogacar) because 2 of them were useless due to crashes.
This year, despite not having Wellens and Narvaez, they still have 6 domestiques to help Pogacar (if nothing bad happens during the race).

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

I just hope Wout and mvdp colude from the beginning. Probably still won’t work but worth a try

I had this exact thought. They should have made a plan while riding together yesterday. I too, do not think it would matter, but if the two of them rode to beat Pog, together, that's the best shot anyone has to keep the inevitable happening...but it's going to happen regardless. Teddy gonna' smoke those fools.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

The thing with MvdP is, he never sucks wheels. Feels like an unwritten rule in his playbook that he should cooperate, regardless the situation. If I were the Roodhoofts, I'd advise him to ride a bit more defensively in the part between second Kwaremont and the Koppenberg.

That's not 100% true. Ask Wout.

 

[Andy262]

Am I the only person who thinks Remco ought to engage with the spring classics? Or at least De Ronde?

 

[AmRacer]

Am I the only person who thinks Remco ought to engage with the spring classics? Or at least De Ronde?

No, most of us would like to see him racing spring classics.

 

[jono]

I think that a Pog win is near inevitable, so I am hoping for bad weather to introduce a bit more randomness into the race day. A muddy Koppenberg, perhaps.

 

[hayneplane]

I sometimes fantasize that we could have some elite riders get into an early break who then could be around and a factor ( though not winning) by the time they reach the final Kwaremont ascent. That used to happen
on occasion but it seems the race is now too hard (especially the new course) and the top teams too strong (the leash is shorter) to make that happen. That why I say fantasy not reality.

Quinn Simmons picked up a highly creditable 4th in Lombardia last year after attacking in the opening kilometres and spending all day in the break.

Plenty of riders have picked up top 10s in Flanders and Roubaix from the break of the day being caught both relatively late and with the race behind already splintered.

Trying to play your second card very early such as Laporte could be an intriguing option.

 

[hayneplane]

I think that a Pog win is near inevitable, so I am hoping for bad weather to introduce a bit more randomness into the race day. A muddy Koppenberg, perhaps.

Koppenberg is so late in the race that the big favourites will already be separated from the pack so limiting the chaos potential.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

I think that a Pog win is near inevitable, so I am hoping for bad weather to introduce a bit more randomness into the race day. A muddy Koppenberg, perhaps.

I haven't looked. Is that in the forecast?