That's not the point (who will win 2026 RVV). The point is some people believe a rainy RVV would give MVP more favoritism than Pogacar and I think this is nonsense since technique is overrated and what really counts is w/kg. I also believe Pogacar's technique is underrated, the guy is normally better positioned than MVP for example.
Now you're making things up. I'm convinced rain will even the odds, yet the odds are still with Pog on RVV and I'll give it to you that RVV isn't that technical. Wet also makes for a slower race and different sorts of mistakes.
Paris Roubaix is another story. A real slippery and wet PR will make technique a factor. Call it decisive or not. It's a matter of words and definitions. Many don't realize puncture (or rather not puncturing) is also a matter of technique. The combination of technique and power is what makes a race like PR, hence why Remco will (most likely) never be a contender at PR.
Finally, yes I'm quite impressed by Pog's skills. He was killing it on the Poggio descent (someone to check his ride with Mohoric's). He also proved himself last year PR yet he got it wrong and MVDP did not.
ps. Mohoric 2022: 3:09 / 57,3 km/h vs Pidcock (+Pog) 2026: 3:17 / 54,9 km/h