Ronde van Vlaanderen: October 18th, 2020

[Broccolidwarf]

You don't think anyone from the lineup will go race the awesomely named Three Days of De Panne?

Probably, change it to "most" then

 

[Samu Cuenca]

You don't think anyone from the lineup will go race the awesomely named Three Days of De Panne?

Three days for the price of one. Good offer.

 

[RedheadDane]

Three days for the price of one. Good offer.

Fastest three-day race ever!

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Fastest three-day race ever!

It's a deadpanne comedy.

 

[Volderke]

• * * * * van Aert, van der Poel
• * * * Alaphilippe
• * * Pedersen, Bettiol, Trentin, Andersen, Asgreen, Lampaert, Stuyven, Benoot
• * Küng, Sénéchal, Van Marcke, Teuns
• Degenkolb, Kristoff, Naesen, Wellens

 

[Anderis]

Stefan Bissegger will win this bike race.

 

[Ktarie]

I am curious what role Politt will play.
In that strange corona year he took part in many belgian one-day-classic-races, but I never saw him in a leading group in the crucial phase, so I think.

He acted similarly "hidden" last year and then suddenly appeared in top positions second at Roubaix and fifth in Flanders. Top 10 would be decent for sure. His team isn't bad when it comes to cobblelstone.

 

[Anderis]

He acted similarly "hidden" last year and then suddenly appeared in top positions second at Roubaix and fifth in Flanders. Top 10 would be decent for sure. His team isn't bad when it comes to cobblelstone.

Not really hidden last year, there were some really strong signs like 2nd in Paris-Nice ITT and 6 in E3, his Flanders and Roubaix didn't come out of nowhere, I remember I gave him a star for Flanders last year. This year he doesn't have this kind of results.

 

[repre]

I am curious what role Politt will play.
In that strange corona year he took part in many belgian one-day-classic-races, but I never saw him in a leading group in the crucial phase, so I think.

He acted similarly "hidden" last year and then suddenly appeared in top positions second at Roubaix and fifth in Flanders. Top 10 would be decent for sure. His team isn't bad when it comes to cobblelstone.

Nah Politt was visible in other races in 2019. This year he was dropped even in flat TDF stages. Not expecting much from him.

 

[senna6541]

I am ready for a Van der Poel tactical disasterclass

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

 

[Anderis]

You know EF are serious about this race when they announce their roster 4 days early.

 

[DaLong]

• * * * * van Aert, van der Poel
• * * * Alaphilippe
• * * Pedersen, Bettiol, Trentin, Andersen, Asgreen, Lampaert, Stuyven, Benoot
• * Küng, Sénéchal, Van Marcke, Teuns
• Degenkolb, Kristoff, Naesen, Wellens

I'd think you gotta switch Alaphilippe and Pedersen. JA hasn't shown anything on the cobbles IMO.

 

[RedheadDane]

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

Spoiler: HUGE!

Why are we speaeking in giant letters??????

 

[SHAD0W93]

Heart: Cavendish wins solo
Head: someone to capitalize on Van Aert and Van der Poel competing against the other.

 

[Volderke]

I'd think you gotta switch Alaphilippe and Pedersen. JA hasn't shown anything on the cobbles IMO.

I rate Alaphilippe just below WvA and MvdP.
Main reasons:

1. Alaphilippe was really doing well on cobbled steep climbs in Brabantse pijl (Moskesstraat, cobbles and >20%). Better than MvdP. It seems to me that Paterberg is actually tailormade for Alaphilippe.
2. Alaphilippe has a CX background as well. So while he is lighter, he should still be more than able to handle cobbles.
3. The main problem for Alaphilippe will be the Oude Kwaremont. It's long, with bad cobbles, and requires more power than power / weight. If Alaphilippe hangs on there, I really don't see anyone that can drop him on Paterberg.

Pedersen on the other hand seems to struggle a bit on the steeper cobbled climbs (like Paterberg). He seems 'droppable' by WvA and MvdP.

 

[Oliver]

You know EF are serious about this race when they announce their roster 4 days early.

they where even training as a team on the Ronde Van Vlaanderen route yesterday!

 

[tobydawq]

I'd think you gotta switch Alaphilippe and Pedersen. JA hasn't shown anything on the cobbles IMO.

He has never ridden on them.

Nevertheless, I have no doubt he deserves four stars.

 

[Jagartrott]

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

Yeah, OK, but Simon Gerrans has retired, sadly.

 

[Volderke]

He has never ridden on them.

Nevertheless, I have no doubt he deserves four stars.

never say never

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and he was the better climber on this one just a week ago in Brabantse pijl (300m at 15% = very similar to Paterberg):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEwzr3ajjzQ

A bit of a weaker argument, but ofcourse he did the recon this week (probably more than one time, as he stays at his girlfriend's place just across the border in Northern France):
pictures here:

FOTO: Alaphilippe verkent RVV, ook Van Avermaet dokkert over de kasseien | sporza

De Ronde van Vlaanderen komt steeds dichterbij en de renners verkennen intussen de Vlaamse hellingen en kasseien. Wereldkampioen Julian Alaphilippe doet voor het eerst mee. Op bevestiging van een deelname van Greg Van Avermaet is het nog even wachten. Zondag doen ze het nog eens opnieuw, maar...

sporza.be

And last, he has cyclocross pedigree. And a very strong team.

 

[pink_jersey]

If they don't drop Ala on Oude he's gonna jump from everyone on Paterberg. That's a given. Cobbles or not his acceleration on climbs like that is lethal.

 

[italoc]

1. *
2. Trentin
3. *

 

[Boes]

I rate Alaphilippe just below WvA and MvdP.
Main reasons:

1. Alaphilippe was really doing well on cobbled steep climbs in Brabantse pijl (Moskesstraat, cobbles and >20%). Better than MvdP. It seems to me that Paterberg is actually tailormade for Alaphilippe.
2. Alaphilippe has a CX background as well. So while he is lighter, he should still be more than able to handle cobbles.
3. The main problem for Alaphilippe will be the Oude Kwaremont. It's long, with bad cobbles, and requires more power than power / weight. If Alaphilippe hangs on there, I really don't see anyone that can drop him on Paterberg.

Pedersen on the other hand seems to struggle a bit on the steeper cobbled climbs (like Paterberg). He seems 'droppable' by WvA and MvdP.

If they don't drop Ala on Oude he's gonna jump from everyone on Paterberg. That's a given. Cobbles or not his acceleration on climbs like that is lethal.

Actually, on Belgian TV the former CX rider and world champion Sven Nys doesn't think Alalfpolak will be able to drop WVA or MVP on the Paterberg as, certainly if its wet, it a climb you have to tackle sitting and not 'en danseuse' as Alafpolak usually likes to climb.
Sven Nys argues that when climbing sitting down, most of the power comes from the lower back and WVA and MVP just have a lot more muscles and should be able to drop Alaphilippe on the Paterberg.

For what it's worth I don't think they'll be together when hitting the final Paterberg climb, but it would be an interesting scenario.

 

[Billie]

If they don't drop Ala on Oude he's gonna jump from everyone on Paterberg. That's a given. Cobbles or not his acceleration on climbs like that is lethal.

he can't just put it on the big ring and attack out of the saddle halfway up the Paterberg. It wont work like that on cobbles.

It's also unlikely he can follow the best riders on the Kwaremont.

 

[tobydawq]

Actually, on Belgian TV the former CX rider and world champion Sven Nys doesn't think Alalfpolak will be able to drop WVA or MVP on the Paterberg as, certainly if its wet, it a climb you have to tackle sitting and not 'en danseuse' as Alafpolak usually likes to climb.
Sven Nys argues that when climbing sitting down, most of the power comes from the lower back and WVA and MVP just have a lot more muscles and should be able to drop Alaphilippe on the Paterberg.

For what it's worth I don't think they'll be together when hitting the final Paterberg climb, but it would be an interesting scenario.

I don't think he can just ride away from those two either. They looked pretty damn fast on the Kemmelberg. But if they cancel each other out, Alaphilippe has a playground to exploit.

 

[tobydawq]

It's also unlikely he can follow the best riders on the Kwaremont.

Hmm, Poggio isn't the steepest of climbs, either, and he is far and away the best rider there. So maybe he is more on equal terms with the crossers on the Kwaremont. It is true, though, that he can't stand up in the saddle there.