Ronde van Vlaanderen - Tour des Flandres 2023, one day monument, April 2 (men's)

[Lequack]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vD1B4RVHqsE

 

[Poursuivant]

Pog to try on Kwaremont and take a smallish group with him until the final Kwaremont, Pog, the two vans, Mohoric, an obligatory Movistar 2023 Classics rider - Pog to throw the kitchen sink at dropping them all and MVDP to come over the top a la MSR and solo to the line.

 

[YavorD]

If we have a hypothetical situation where Pog drops both of the Vans, does MVP work with WVA in the chase or tells him "naah, sorry mate, if you want to win, you catch Pog"?

If it was me, I'd leave it on Wout. He's the one who needs that win more, so he has to earn it. Besides, Van Aert is (imo) the better sprinter.

 

[tobydawq]

If we have a hypothetical situation where Pog drops both of the Vans, does MVP work with WVA in the chase or tells him "naah, sorry mate, if you want to win, you catch Pog"?

If it was me, I'd leave it on Wout. He's the one who needs that win more, so he has to earn it. Besides, Van Aert is (imo) the better sprinter.

Of course Mathieu works with him...

 

[Didinho]

If we have a hypothetical situation where Pog drops both of the Vans, does MVP work with WVA in the chase or tells him "naah, sorry mate, if you want to win, you catch Pog"?

If it was me, I'd leave it on Wout. He's the one who needs that win more, so he has to earn it. Besides, Van Aert is (imo) the better sprinter.

Mathieu always tries to go for the win.
If you don't get to Pogi, you can only be 2nd. When he works he has a chance to win. He would rather lose after trying, than lose like a "coward".

 

[Netserk]

Mathieu always tries to go for the win.
If you don't get to Pogi, you can only be 2nd. When he works he has a chance to win. He would rather lose after trying, than lose like a "coward".

Not true in the two editions previous to his win in Sanremo.

 

[tobydawq]

Not true in the two editions previous to his win in Sanremo.

Not a completely identical situation...

You have to play it smart in MSR if you're in a chase group, even Mathieu knows that. There's nothing cowardly about that.

 

[Boehmand]

A good correction by Boehmand ...... this might be what you read and hear in the MSM as Europe and parts of America experienced drought but it isn't what the science says. There is no consensus that climate change will lead to a drier planet. Scientists are split on whether it might lead to a wetter planet. FYI, in Sydney we just experienced the wettest year since records were kept. I am aware that parts of America and Europe experienced droughts. That could be cyclical e.g. ENSO.

To be clear it will do both.

Dry areas/periods get drier and wet areas/periods get wetter, and everything to a more extreme degree.

Also seasons will change, some will be shorter others longer.

The one thing nobody knows is, how weather/storm patterns may change, and thus affect the climate further, because there is no data available on "weather" from the last time the planet was that hot.

Some good explanations here:

Explainer: What climate models tell us about future rainfall - Carbon Brief

Much of the public discussion around climate change has focused on how much the Earth will warm over the coming century.

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[Berniece]

Not true in the two editions previous to his win in Sanremo.

Last year Wout said that only he and Mathieu were actually trying to catch Mohoric

 

[Netserk]

Not a completely identical situation...

You have to play it smart in MSR if you're in a chase group, even Mathieu knows that. There's nothing cowardly about that.

You should always play it smart, and when it's smart to hold back or to not work, I don't call that cowardice.

 

[tobydawq]

You should always play it smart, and when it's smart to hold back or to not work, I don't call that cowardice.

But it wouldn't be smart to not help Wout in a situation as described above.

The two kilometres after the Poggio descent in MSR are too chaotic and close to the finish to really give any information you could apply to basically any other race.

 

[Netserk]

To be clear it will do both.

Dry areas/periods get drier and wet areas/periods get wetter, and everything to a more extreme degree.

Also seasons will change, some will be shorter others longer.

The one thing nobody knows is, how weather/storm patterns may change, and thus affect the climate further, because there is no data available on "weather" from the last time the planet was that hot.

Some good explanations here:

Explainer: What climate models tell us about future rainfall - Carbon Brief

Much of the public discussion around climate change has focused on how much the Earth will warm over the coming century.

www.carbonbrief.org

Okay, buddy

 

[search]

He is the captain for the hilly races. But in this form he could be important for Mathieu.

the selection on Wednesday was also made on a paved climb. I'm not saying Hermans couldn't be useful (same as Philipsen), especially as half of Alpecin in the Ronde is out of shape or was recently sick, but he has very limited experience on the cobbles, and this is a very different race. So in a way it makes sense to have him prepare properly for the Ardennes instead.

Dwars door Vlaanderen is by far the easiest of the cobbled classics, and much better for a climber/puncheur giving it a first try. Even Quintana looked alright there a couple of years back.

 

[Panda Claws]

Pog should not ride with MvdP whatsoever. Let him see if following Pog is worth it if WvA can get back at his own pace.

 

[Lequack]

Pog with his Belgian fanclub, Pogiboys

PS: They were also there last week at E3

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Pog with his Belgian fanclub, Pogiboys

PS: They were also there last week at E3

They look like they‘d be saying: ‚You know, you remind me a lot of Merckx, back in Merckx‘s day…‘

 

[Tonton]

If we have a hypothetical situation where Pog drops both of the Vans, does MVP work with WVA in the chase or tells him "naah, sorry mate, if you want to win, you catch Pog"?

If it was me, I'd leave it on Wout. He's the one who needs that win more, so he has to earn it. Besides, Van Aert is (imo) the better sprinter.

That's where tobydawq and I differ a bit. For the very reason that you YavorD mention, I'm not so sure about collaboration and we saw a dynamic like that at MSR and there's a real chance that no one will be willing to work too hard.

So who will make the crucial move?

If Remco is Merckx, Pogacar is Hinault, I like his chances. He makes the vans freak out, He's the best rider in the world.

 

[proffate]

Pog to try on Kwaremont and take a smallish group with him until the final Kwaremont, Pog, the two vans, Mohoric, an obligatory Movistar 2023 Classics rider - Pog to throw the kitchen sink at dropping them all and MVDP to come over the top a la MSR and solo to the line.

in short: Pog to make sure one of the vans wins it

 

[Cookster15]

Pog should not ride with MvdP whatsoever. Let him see if following Pog is worth it if WvA can get back at his own pace.

When MvdP is on song he has unrivalled anaerobic power - like when he won 2019 Amstel. Safe to say MvdP is on song right now.

IMHO, the way to beat him is attack earlier than he would like - which means don’t wait to the last climb - too late. To win, Pog needs to attack like there is no tomorrow on earlier climbs so that MvdP is put out of contention and riding back depletes those devastating anaerobic reserves, and then hope WvA isn’t in the mix to capitalise.

 

[Oldermanish]

Pog to try on Kwaremont and take a smallish group with him until the final Kwaremont, Pog, the two vans, Mohoric, an obligatory Movistar 2023 Classics rider - Pog to throw the kitchen sink at dropping them all and MVDP to come over the top a la MSR and solo to the line.

obligatory Movistar rider is 23 yo Matteo. This may be beyond him but he's a quick learner. If he gets with Pog and maybe one other guy not WvA or MvP this could be a different race. Long shot but that can happen.

 

[Oldermanish]

That's where tobydawq and I differ a bit. For the very reason that you YavorD mention, I'm not so sure about collaboration and we saw a dynamic like that at MSR and there's a real chance that no one will be willing to work too hard.

So who will make the crucial move?

If Remco is Merckx, Pogacar is Hinault, I like his chances. He makes the vans freak out, He's the best rider in the world.

Anyone that collabs with Wout is settling for a lesser place at the line.

 

[tobydawq]

Anyone that collabs with Wout is settling for a lesser place at the line.

Like in De Ronde 2020?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Climate change doesn't explain why it always rains on Saturday but never on Sunday. Polytheism does. It proves that rain god Pluvius rests on the seventh day to watch the Ronde.

 

[tobydawq]

Climate change doesn't explain why it always rains on Saturday but never on Sunday. Polytheism does. It proves that rain god Pluvius rests on the seventh day to watch the Ronde.

Well, you can't blame him

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Getting rid of both Vans is difficult: last year, despite an awesome performance, Pog couldn't get rid of one Van. That's why it's so hard to win. He'll either do what is expected (i.e. hammer down those climbs and try to tire Vans in an attrition battle) or something less expected (maybe surprising Vans: get into a strong breakaway before the final 55 km).