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Ronde van Vlaanderen - Tour des Flandres 2023, one day monument, April 2 (men's)

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2022: front group formed on Koppenberg
2021: front group formed on Taaienberg
2020: front group formed on the downhill of Stationsberg
2019: winner rode away on Kwaremont
2018: Winner rode away on Hotond
2017: winner rode away on penultime Kwaremont
2016: front group/winner away on false flat between Taaienberg and Ronse
2015: front group rode away on Hotond
2014: front group formed on Kwaremont
2013: winner rode away from peloton on Kwaremont and last companion on Paterberg
2012: front group rode away on Kwaremont

So basically every hill from 2nd Kwaremont on has been decisive in forming the race in the past. It can happen everywhere. Gilbert the only winner who was in front already before the 2nd Kwaremont
The problem for Wout is he is the least likely to drop the other favorites on the hills. A small group sprint is probably his most likely scenario, never the first choice. The other 2 have a much higher chance of winning solo (relative to him going solo), but will that 14k on the flat be enough for guys like Wout to come back in the event of a split?
So basically every hill from 2nd Kwaremont on has been decisive in forming the race in the past. It can happen everywhere. Gilbert the only winner who was in front already before the 2nd Kwaremont
And if we're being honest, Gilbert might not have won if Sagan didn't fall due to that jacket. In that case it would also have been on the Taaienberg that the decisive move would have been made.
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Pog will likely put the hammer down on a few hills to drop everyone but Vans. But how to get rid of them? Any surprising tactics? It's a good lesson of racing. WVA recently said in an interview that the difficulty against Pog is that he can keep repeating those hills time and time again (as he's lighter) to tire his opponents. While OTOH they (big boys) can be faster on first hills (when fresher). This makes sense but OTOH Vans are used to intense repeated intervals from CX or MTB races so those races are tailor made for them (length is the only thing that maybe weakens Wout though).
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It's concerning though. No one in the team is stepping up, like the machine is broken.

Ala is past it, it seems like for now. He needs a revival. Winning the WC two years in a row was great, but probably took a toll as well with everything that comes with it.

Asgreen has had big issues with long-term fatigue. Ended last season in the Tour. Like with Kwiatkowski, Schachmann, Hermans... it seems very hard to fully come back from it.

A few other of their good riders and core of their cobbles squad are getting up there in age. It was telling already last year that they couldnt compete in the biggest races in the classics and it is the same this year. Nothing was done more than signing Merlier, who is the only one that has delivered in some of the lower-level races against weak-fields. He will never be competitive in the biggest races.

What they have now is some great riders for the hillier type of races. Schmid, Vansevenant, Bagioli, Cavangna, Van Wilder and Remco. Ala is included here as well, of course. He should have focused on the Ardennes from the beginning this season with Fleche, LBL and AGR instead of riding these cobbled races.

Their cobbles squad need a complete rebuild imo or that they strike gold with signing an upcoming young talent and turning him into a world class rider. Someone might know more about this, than me, if there is a rider like that out there soon coming through to the pros.
It's not like Alaphilippe, Lampaert, Ballerini, Asgreen, Sénéchal... have all turned 42 last year. And yet these guys were winning major races/classics til 2 years ago and they are still all on the team. So it's not just about Evenepoel, his basket or their eggs.
A team which relies on strength in numbers and which doesn't necessarily have the absolute best riders are bound to have a downturn in their fortunes at some point. Especially when their top riders aren't on their best form. Then the second line has less freedom as well. Asgreen is not in the kind of form which will paralyse everyone if Lampaert sneaks away.

It also doesn't help that Jumbo has maybe the most formidable classics team assembled in many years.