Ryder Hesjedal - GC Chances

[Merckx]

I think he played it smart going for a breakaway on Stage 3. Kept himself out of trouble and now sits comfortably in 4th.. (He also gets a few days to recover in the pack.)

I could see him trying to get back into a break in Stage 7-8.. Whether the other teams decide to let such a break go is another matter though.

A top 20 could be a stretch, but not entirely impossible!! He can TT fairly well, and almost always came ahead of the autobus in most mountain stages last year (after playing domestique for Wiggins and VDV).

 

[carl spackler]

What has he ever done in the mountains to make people think he could do top-10?

I think of him pacing VandeVelde up the Col de la Bonnette in 2008 as a big eye opener for me. He seems really durable and a smart racer.

Not saying he'll win just think maybe top 10. Stranger things have happened. I seriously think Garmin might want him to try for yellow on Saturday. Evans is only a few seconds up on him.

Zabriskie is definitely tanking to get in position for stages.

 

[theyoungest]

I think of him pacing VandeVelde up the Col de la Bonnette in 2008 as a big eye opener for me. He seems really durable and a smart racer.

Not saying he'll win just think maybe top 10. Stranger things have happened. I seriously think Garmin might want him to try for yellow on Saturday. Evans is only a few seconds up on him.

Zabriskie is definitely tanking to get in position for stages.

I don't see him dropping Evans on that final climb, but yes, he could try to get away in the final kilometre. And Evans might gladly hand him the yellow jersey. That being said, I think maybe even Cancellara could hold on in that stage... the climb doesn't seem awfully hard.

 

[scribe]

Yes I believe that he has a very good chance especially if garmin continue him on heis special regiem of seal meat, maple syrup and triathelons.

LOL!

At risk of encouraging you, your game is getting better and better.

 

[sublimit]

Yes I believe that he has a very good chance especially if garmin continue him on heis special regiem of seal meat, maple syrup and triathelons.

Nothing can be added to that. Quality.

 

[Anonymous]

Stranger things have happened. Oscar Pereiro won once.

 

[131313]

Some discussion in surprise package thread but thought he deserved his own. Could be in yellow after stage 7. Seems Garmin is downplaying his chances.

I think he could be on the back end of a top 10 finish. He has the head for it.

I don't think people realize how strong he is, or how well he can climb. That's because he's one of those guys who is really good at doing "fake work". He'll work for the team, but only enough to not get yelled at. Deep down, he always has it in the back of his head to save a little in case he gets to play his own card.

Note that this isn't a slam, it's an observation, one shared by many. He has the head of a team leader, even though that hasn't been his role. Now he doesn't have to even to do fake work, he's their GC guy. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people. I'll go out on a limb and predict 7th place overall.

 

[theyoungest]

I think he could be on the back end of a top 10 finish. He has the head for it.

I don't think people realize how strong he is, or how well he can climb. That's because he's one of those guys who is really good at doing "fake work". He'll work for the team, but only enough to not get yelled at. Deep down, he always has it in the back of his head to save a little in case he gets to play his own card.

Note that this isn't a slam, it's an observation, one shared by many. He has the head of a team leader, even though that hasn't been his role. Now he doesn't have to even to do fake work, he's their GC guy. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people. I'll go out on a limb and predict 7th place overall.

WTF? The field is rather strong in this Tour, do you really think he's among the ten best climbers in the race?

 

[El Oso]

every year without fail, during the initial sprint stages of the TDF, we want to believe that a ryder hesjedal, fabian cancellara, michele bartoli or johan museeuw actually have a chance of winning the TDF .

ed rader

I'll throw Stijn Devolder's name into that hat. I fell for that one in my fantasy Tour team a few years ago.

 

[El Oso]

What has he ever done in the mountains to make people think he could do top-10?

He did win Stage 12 of the Vuelta last year (albeit from a break). That wasn't a shabby stage

Not to mention this year he finished 2nd in Amstel, 10th in Fleche Wallone, and 13th in LBL.

 

[131313]

WTF? The field is rather strong in this Tour, do you really think he's among the ten best climbers in the race?

No, but I think he's one of the 15-20 best climbers in the race, and at least half of the guys who can out-climb him will have other team responsibilities preventing them achieving a high overall. I also think he has the ability to ride at the front and not lose time stupidly. Plus, he can TT better than most climbers, by a pretty good margin.

 

[Steel4Ever]

Yes I believe that he has a very good chance especially if garmin continue him on heis special regiem of seal meat, maple syrup and triathelons.

Nothing can be added to that. Quality.

I've seen him rolling around town on his cruiser with a six-pack of back bacon in the basket. He also used to do intervals with the Sasquatch back in his MTBing days. Ryder has secret weapons galore.

He may not top-10, but I bet he whoops that guy from Belarus.

 

[santacruz]

Ryder can not climb with AC AS or even CE. There is only a slight chance some breakaway shenanigans could happen and land him a spot in yellow for 1 day. But yah, Ryder FTW, I want him to beat AC also lol.

The only previous Tour winner he is stronger than is Oscar Pereiro, lol! But that means he has a chance!

 

[Willy_Voet]

He's the next Merckx.

 

[Steel4Ever]

He's the next Merckx.

Um...you mean after Eddy? Or Axel? Or the Axel Jrs.?

 

[131313]

http://velonews.competitor.com/2010/07/news/denied-on-stage-3-ryder-hesjedal-will-keep-trying-for-tour-de-france-stage-win_126839

I think he knows getting a stage win would be better for himself and the team than a top 15 finish.

Looks like the decision isn't up to him, though... He's now there GC guy. I guess we'll get a chance to see after all. I still say in the top 10. Top 5 is pushing it, but with some luck....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100708/wl_canada_afp/cyclingfratourusahesjedal

No one is saying he's going to drop Contador, but remember, LeMevel was 10th last year, and Hesjedal has had pretty similar results, if not a little better.

 

[Master50]

Ryder has had good results climbing and pretty good when supported. I think he can finish top 15 and top 10 with support and better if he does not have a bad day. He can climb Halleakula under 2 1/2 hours which seems pretty fast to me. Some good climbers I know take more than 4 hours.

 

[amp300]

Looks like the decision isn't up to him, though... He's now there GC guy. I guess we'll get a chance to see after all. I still say in the top 10. Top 5 is pushing it, but with some luck....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100708/wl_canada_afp/cyclingfratourusahesjedal

No one is saying he's going to drop Contador, but remember, LeMevel was 10th last year, and Hesjedal has had pretty similar results, if not a little better.

Thanks for the link, we will see what happens then! I'm sticking with my earlier pick of 12th place, but will be cheering him on for higher.

 

[Red Lobster]

Nothing can be added to that. Quality.

Indeed. It's the masterful use of misspellings that provides that something extra special.

 

[Steel4Ever]

Now 3rd after the first hill/mountain stage.

I'm thinking Stage 8 will, most unfortunately, see a downward shuffling.

Hope I am proven wrong.

 

[131313]

every year without fail, during the initial sprint stages of the TDF, we want to believe that a ryder hesjedal, fabian cancellara, michele bartoli or johan museeuw actually have a chance of winning the TDF .

ed rader

OK, he didn't quite get the jersey. Can we at least all agree that Hesjedal has a little more grand tour potential than Cancellara or Museeuw??

More seriously, I was pretty impressed with how he road yesterday. It's pretty obvious that he pulled the pin in the front group at a very expedient time. Wiggens went too deep, and ended up losing more time than he probably would have otherwise. I swear Wiggan lost a minute in about 200 meters! Meanwhile, Hesjedal recognized his limitations and when into damage-control mode earlier.

Overall, it was a pretty impressive ride. I'm standing by my 7th place prediction.

 

[jaylew]

I think 12th is going to be about his ceiling for this year as I believe the Pyrenees are going to hurt him more than some others. I predict 15th.

 

[santacruz]

He can climb Halleakula under 2 1/2 hours which seems pretty fast to me. Some good climbers I know take more than 4 hours.

Oh damn! Finally some solid numbers come out and we are now aware of what Ryder is actually capable of! 1.5 HOURS faster than some climbers you know??? AC better get ready to suck on some Ryder dust in the Pyrenees!!

OK, he didn't quite get the jersey.

You thought he would out climb Cadel? That's OK I guess, Cadel can really blow sometimes. But you thought he would out climb Andy?? ho ho ho.. put the maple syrup down bro, you've had too much.

OK, he didn't quite get the jersey. Can we at least all agree that Hesjedal has a little more grand tour potential than Cancellara or Museeuw??

Except Fabian is exciting to watch, can do awesome sh!t like break away in the last kilometer of a flat stage and steal the victory from the sprinters, all the while wearing the yellow jersey... Ryder's tour potential meaning what, the possible ability to one day slot into the top 10, but not actually do anything or attack anyone, simply hang on for dear life and hope for the best? Fabian has never tried to place well in a grand tour, he's too busy doing things that are actually worthwhile. If Fabian lost weight and for some odd reason made it a goal to get placed better than Ryder Hesjedal in the TdF, I'm sure he would have no problem, but that would be really boring to watch, and it wouldn't be fun for him.

Ryder is fulfilling a role for Garmin, they need to be able to say, hey, we didn't win anything, or come close to winning the TdF, but hey check out Ryder, he's quite the sensation he broke into the top 10!! (err top 20 probably). It saves them, just barely, from a complete disaster of a tour.

 

[pedaling squares]

... Ryder's tour potential meaning what, the possible ability to one day slot into the top 10, but not actually do anything or attack anyone, simply hang on for dear life and hope for the best?....

You did watch stage 3 right? I'd say he launched the odd attack, and when he was caught by some of the best riders in the world, including Cancellara, he attacked for the win in the last km. Didn't win mind you, but he did beat Canc.

Now, you're probably talking about what he has to do from here on, and in that case I'll agree with you that hanging on for dear life is a realistic strategy. Top 10 isn't very impressive for Contador, Evans, or Schleck, but for a guy who's never ridden for GC before and who came here as a domestique, it's pretty damn good.

 

[M Sport]

Hesjedal will finish between 10th and 15th.