Sky Grand Tour Line Up

[ingsve]

I've read somewhere that Swift and Downing are riding the Vuelta. Swift is riding California (if they get an invite) rather than the Giro.

The Vuelta squad is a difficult one to guess because, with the worlds course this year, I'd imagine EBH and Henderson will want to ride that.

Perhaps. Though EBH usually has a full program in august so riding another GT after the Tour would mean some big changes to his program. I'm guessing he'll do Eneco Tour + Vattenfall + Canadian WT races like last year. Per haps he could throw in GP Ouest France if he needs more racing to prepare for Worlds.

Another thing effecting hte vuelta squad is probably Tour of Britain which is a big goal for them.

 

[hatcher]

If Cummings has his 2010 Giro form they'd be silly to leave him out of the 2011 Tour. Wiggins trusts him above anyone else, and with the TTT included his chances improve again.

2010 showed he doesn't have two grand tours in him, so it has to be the Tour.

Wiggins
Lofkvist
Uran
Rogers
Cummings
Gerrans/Flecha
Barry/Arvesen
Thomas
EBH

same as last year but with Uran and Rogers for Pauwels and Gerrans/Flecha.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Perhaps if they made a team that was 100% about supporting a GC leader then he'd have a shot at the Tour but I think that now with both Wiggins, Uran and Rogers on the team there are better candidates to fill out the last mountain slots than Zandio. I always saw him as a given Vuelta rider and perhaps Giro+Vuelta but not the Tour.

If they know what they are doing then Arvesen should be a given in the team unless he is unfit like last year. He was a solid member of the Tour squad and probably the best road captain they have by far.

I'm a little mixed about Gerrans. In the role of mountain domestique I think they have better candidates and for the flats they have better also but he has won a few GT stages in very specific types of courses and the question is if that's a good enough reason to bring someone. Last year it made a little sense to bring him since they didn't have that many mountain domestiques but now it's thougher I think. Same with Flecha. He's also a guy that can win a stage in a breakaway group but his main reason for being in the Tour last year was to be a road captain and for the cobbled stage in my mind. Arvesen has the same ability to win stages in breaks and is also a more experienced road captain so to me that should take presedence.

Your comments about Arvesen are all very well in an ideal world, but he's 36 and has spent a lot of the past couple of years injured. That's why I think he'll have to prove himself up to the job and isn't the certainty everyone else thinks he is.

I'd include Xandio/Zandio. If he's been good enough for Caisse, he's more than good enough for Sky, form permitting.

I'm not mixed about Gerrans, he's been massively disappointing. There's no way he can justify a place on the team given his performances since joining Sky. I can't remember a stage let alone a race where he was a contender last year. Maybe the move to Sky didn't suit him, not necessarily clinic related.

Is Rogers guaranteed a place on the Tour? Does he want one? Thought he was after one week victories. I think he probably will go, I just don't know if it's a done deal. Has he said anything?

The other issue is the Worlds in September. Brailsford needs to pick all the GB squad members for the Vuelta or parallel races while making sure Flecha, the Norwegians and the Aussies don't even look at a bike, let alone ride one.

 

[sublimit]

Are you sure Cummings is riding the Giro? I thought Sky would have saved him for the Tour team.

I'm not certain, but with cooler conditions than the Tour I think it would suit him better. He seemed to struggle last time and looked drained most of the time at the Tour so if I was Brailsford I would stick him in the Giro.

 

[hatcher]

I'm not mixed about Gerrans, he's been massively disappointing. There's no way he can justify a place on the team given his performances since joining Sky. I can't remember a stage let alone a race where he was a contender last year. Maybe the move to Sky didn't suit him, not necessarily clinic related.

Gerrans certainly had a disappointing time in the Ardennes, but to be fair to him he only lasted a week in the Tour before pulling out with a broken arm, and the whole team pulled out of the Vuelta. So in 2 of his 3 big aims for the year he was exceptionally unlucky. He looked really good at the end of the year in the Worlds, and has started this season well, so there is still hope for him.

 

[Ferminal]

Is Rogers guaranteed a place on the Tour? Does he want one? Thought he was after one week victories. I think he probably will go, I just don't know if it's a done deal. Has he said anything?

Not sure why he wouldn't want to go. Not like he has his eyes on any other GTs. He can still target Switzerland or the Dauphine and pull up well for the Tour.

A good addition to the TT and a domestique on the flats or climbs wherever he's needed. He would be my first pick after the leaders.

 

[Anonymous]

I've read somewhere that Swift and Downing are riding the Vuelta. Swift is riding California (if they get an invite) rather than the Giro.

The Vuelta squad is a difficult one to guess because, with the worlds course this year, I'd imagine EBH and Henderson will want to ride that.

Arvesen, Boasson Hagen, Dowsett, Rogers, Swift all down to ride california so no Giro for them. I dont think Dowsett will do a gt this year, so If swift is to do one it will be the Vuelta with Kennaugh.

For Downing, personally I think he'd be useful in the giro as a leadout/foil for Appollonio, but depends how he comes through the spring.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Not sure why he wouldn't want to go. Not like he has his eyes on any other GTs. He can still target Switzerland or the Dauphine and pull up well for the Tour.

...

Only that its 21 days racing he could do without.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Ya, they'll probably try and avoid going to the Tour with tired riders. I know Löfkvist is doing the Giro as a protected rider but is hoping to ride the Tour in support of Wiggins so he might be an exception if he gets out of the Giro in good shape.

Then there is also Geraint Thomas who could also compete for a spot. I speculated about the Tour squad a bit in october or november and I think I had something like this in mind:

Wiggins
Uran
Rogers
Löfkvist
Thomas
Arvesen
Sutton
Henderson
EBH

That would be a team that would do double duty of supporting Wiggins and going for sprints. Cummings could of course take the place of either Löfkvist or Thomas without changing the focus much and if they want to go even more on supporting Wiggins then he would have an even better shot.

I hope they leave the sprinters home bnecause henderson and ebh have no chance against cavendish, farrar, greipel or petacchi

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I thought the main purpose of Team Sky hiring Uran was for the support of Wiggins in the Tour. Why else would you hire a pure climber? To take him to the Giro would be a waste if they don't intend to do something big in there.

the main purpose for hiring uran is to lure in henao next year and to have the future of gc racing secured. wiggins is a shallow bet for gt, to me his 2009 tour was a fluke, he is british and that's his advantage in that team but it's now or never for him this year I think.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The white jersey is based on your age as of January 1, not your age as of the Grand Départ. Schleck is going to win white again.

Urán should lead the Vuelta. I wouldn't waste him as a domestique at the Tour, but Sky will. Hopefully Wiggins loses enough time by the end of week 2 that Rigo can go stagehunt in week 3. With no time bonuses available he's liable to be the best climber in a break.

Cummings will do the Giro. He likes it and does well there. He was in a lot of breaks in 2008 and 2010 too. Think he was 3rd or 4th in a mountain stage in 2008 in fact.

Edit - indeed he was. 4th to Monte Pora in stage 19 of the 2008 Giro. Kiryienka left his break companions behind at the bottom of the climb and soloed in 4 minutes ahead of di Luca, who caught the other breakaways Efimkin and Cummings.

andy schleck is 26 and can't contend the white jersey anymore. uran can as well as next year

 

[Ferminal]

Only that its 21 days racing he could do without.

What would you have him do instead? Most of his goals are prior to July. There isn't much a rider of his type can aim for after the TdF unless you really want to win ENECO or Poland for some reason. I can't see it interfering with his personal ambitions. The only reason I can see would be wanting to do the Vuelta in preparation for the Worlds.

 

[Ryaguas]

If Sky has a bit of grey matter they will go for the KOM with Uran... I'll burn his headquarters if they just use him as a domestique for a fluke like Wiggo... They could target KOM and white jersey as Libertine said and that would be a nice battle... The neederlander vs 1 Escarabajo (Not the moderator BTW =D) hahaha

 

[kurtinsc]

If Sky has a bit of grey matter they will go for the KOM with Uran... I'll burn his headquarters if they just use him as a domestique for a fluke like Wiggo... They could target KOM and white jersey as Libertine said and that would be a nice battle... The neederlander vs 1 Escarabajo (Not the moderator BTW =D) hahaha

KOM's seem to be getting more and more about guys who lose a ton of time up front to be allowed into breaks in the big point stages. I'm not sure it's possible anymore to target both white and the polka dots.

I think they can (and should) go for one of the two with Uran. I dont' think shooting for both is possible.

 

[Anonymous]

I think they can (and should) go for one of the two with Uran. I dont' think shooting for both is possible.

Exactly what Id do. He has a realistic chance of winning either, and a jersey in Paris is worth a damn site more than him acting as domestique to Brad. This is why i wouldnt send Brad to the tour.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

What would you have him do instead? Most of his goals are prior to July. There isn't much a rider of his type can aim for after the TdF unless you really want to win ENECO or Poland for some reason. I can't see it interfering with his personal ambitions. The only reason I can see would be wanting to do the Vuelta in preparation for the Worlds.

Well that's the big question isn't it? Last year we had the 'All the eggs in one basket' problem. So how is Sky going to resolve that and actually pick up some wins in half decent races? Sticking some half decent riders in them would be a start.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

andy schleck is 26 and can't contend the white jersey anymore. uran can as well as next year

Andy Schleck was 25 on January 1st, and CAN contend the white jersey this year.

 

[ingsve]

Andy Schleck was 25 on January 1st, and CAN contend the white jersey this year.

That doesn't matter. He has to be born on January 1st 1986 or later but he was born before that so he's too old.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Wiki: "Since 2000, the white jersey has again been awarded, open for all cyclists less than 26 years of age at 1 January of the year."

That's where my confusion has come from - if that's the rule, then Schleck is eligible.

 

[ingsve]

Wiki: "Since 2000, the white jersey has again been awarded, open for all cyclists less than 26 years of age at 1 January of the year."

That's where my confusion has come from - if that's the rule, then Schleck is eligible.

Ya, that's not the rule. That's wikipedia.

From last years Tour de France rules:

Young-rider ranking
The young-rider ranking is reserved for riders
born since January 1st, 1985. The daily
leader of this ranking is the highest placed
young rider in the general individual time
ranking. After the final stage, the leader of
this ranking is declared the winner of the
young-rider ranking.

So adding one year gives us January 1st 1986.

 

[The Cobra]

Tour Team
Wiggins - GC, probably fail but worth one more try.
Uran - Free role, stage wins/high GC.
Rogers - Super Domestique
Thomas - Domestique/sprint train
Arvesen - Road captain
Cummings - Domestique
Henderson - Lead out
EBH - Sprints/Green jersey
Gerrans - Domestique/stage wins

For me unless Wiggins has an absolute stormer Uran should be left to do his own race, whether thats going for stage wins or get a high GC spot. Really dont think Wiggins needs more than one climbing domestique and Rogers can probably match him all the way to the finish anyway. EBH was right up there in the sprints last year despite Sky ballsing up every sprint train, with Henderson leading him out he's got as good a chance as anyone of beating Cav.

Giro team
Lofkvist
Possoni
Cioni
Nordhaug
Appollonio
Sutton
Hayman
Barry
Froome

Vuelta team
Uran
Xandio
Swift
Hunt
Downing
Flecha
Knees
Pauwels
Kennaugh

Think the Giro and Vuelta teams are strong, GC and stage wins possibilities. Also used lots of different riders to give everyone a shot at a GT.

 

[kurtinsc]

Exactly what Id do. He has a realistic chance of winning either, and a jersey in Paris is worth a damn site more than him acting as domestique to Brad. This is why i wouldnt send Brad to the tour.

Well, I still say bring Wiggins to the Tour or the Vuelta.

As one of the others noted, if all the races he sees himself contesting are prior to the Tour, I don't see the harm in letting him ride it... as long as the team focus is not on him, as that would be wasted.

But peaking for the TDS then contributing to the TTT, then take it easy and make a run at the ITT... why not?

Might be better to ride the Vuelta to prepare for the WC ITT... but there isn't much after the Tour that he'd target, is there? And the Vuelta profile doesn't suit him well either.

 

[maltiv]

I would hope that he stays out of the competition for the green jersey. I think that would increase his chances of winning a stage. If it turns out that for example Cavendish is as impossible to beat as he usually is in the Tour then a backup plan could be to go in one of those 15 man breaks that sometimes are let go. If he's high up in the green jersey standings they would never let him get in a break like that. Then again those breaks have become very unusual in the past few years since HTC decided that they want to win every single flat stage there is with their sprints.

True, but I doubt he'll sit up in a sprint on purpose just to avoid getting points. Furthermore, the new points rules are basically perfect for him. Imagine for example if an intermediate sprint is right after the peloton has passed a big mountain, 3 guys are in a breakway. On the top there's about 40 guys left in the main field, EBH will be there while not many other sprinters will be present (perhaps Freire and Rojas). I don't know how many points a 4th place finish in an intermediate sprint will give, but I guess it will be 17 or so. That's almost half the points you get from a stage win, and if no other sprinters get any points...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Freire and Rojas will match EBH for climbing. Rojas certainly (did you see him and Costa do a number on their breakaway companions in the intermediate stage of the Tour de Suisse last year?). Wouldn't be surprised to see Hushovd there too, and Hush will probably get as many points as EBH from the stage ending sprints if he has a shot at green (if he doesn't feel up to it then of course he'll be helping Farrar). Haussler (remember the Platzerwasel?) will get over pretty much anything EBH gets over too.

 

[maltiv]

Freire and Rojas will match EBH for climbing. Rojas certainly (did you see him and Costa do a number on their breakaway companions in the intermediate stage of the Tour de Suisse last year?). Wouldn't be surprised to see Hushovd there too, and Hush will probably get as many points as EBH from the stage ending sprints if he has a shot at green (if he doesn't feel up to it then of course he'll be helping Farrar). Haussler (remember the Platzerwasel?) will get over pretty much anything EBH gets over too.

I did mention Freire and Rojas in my post. Freire I can't see going for the green jersey, he's too inconsistent in the flat bunch sprints. Rojas is of course a threat, but I kinda doubt he will have much team support and I'm not sure if he's strong enough in the flat sprints either. He surely is a good climber though, I think both Edvald and Rojas were in the top 15 on one of the hardest stages in T-A last year, for example.

Hushovd won't be going for the green, neither will Haussler.