What had Wiggins ever done before the 2009 Tour to suggest he could?
Urán has been in excellent form in week 3 of the '09 Tour (in several breaks and coping well in the mountains), and was a superdomestique for Arroyo in the Giro, riding him to the finish line over Monte Grappa, and pacing him almost all the way up the Mortirolo, plus coming 7th to Kronplatz when let off the leash. Urán was a monster at the junior level and, lest we forget, is still only 23. And bear in mind that when Morabito beat him at the Tour de Suisse, the Tour de Suisse is Morabito's home race, which he fought for, and Urán was just coming off a brutally tough Giro. And he was 2nd in the Tour de Suisse until that final ITT. He was also placed inside the top 10 of the Vuelta before his chances were derailed by Antón's crash.
Do I think Rigo will top 5 the Tour next year? No. But I think he's got a better chance of doing it than Wiggins.