Sky Grand Tour Line Up

[ingsve]

Two things strike me. The first is that it looks a bit leaderless. Arvesen?

And what's going on with Augustyn? Talk about hero to zero.

Ya, I don't know who they would have as road captain in the Giro. Is Barry a possibility perhaps? I think it has mainly been Barry, Arvesen and Flecha that has acted as road captains but there might be a few more as well. Perhaps Cioni has that role as well?

 

[hatcher]

Two things strike me. The first is that it looks a bit leaderless. Arvesen?

And what's going on with Augustyn? Talk about hero to zero.

Augustyn is having issues with the hip he fractured a few years ago. I don't think he's ridden at all this year.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

But Team Sky are not Sky. They are just sponsored by them. Ultimately they are a British team, theres no reason why they have to. Like i say, the leopard site isnt even in its native language, the Radioshack site isnt available in Japanese (Nissan), etc.

I beleive they are doing it, yes to please the sponsor, but its pointless pleasing the sponsor if you then dont take a core italian squad to the giro.

Fwiw i think the giro squad will be

Lofkvist*
Cioni*
Possoni*
Norhaug
Froome*
Cummings*
Hayman* (possibly Gerrans)
Downing
Appollonio

* riders who rode in 2010

Lofkvist rode the other two, not the Giro.

 

[adamski101]

Augustyn is having issues with the hip he fractured a few years ago. I don't think he's ridden at all this year.

Augustyn is not due to ride until Criterium International.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Augustyn is having issues with the hip he fractured a few years ago. I don't think he's ridden at all this year.

Augustyn is not due to ride until Criterium International.

Cheers for the info.

Hope he's OK now. Without wishing to take this too far into clinic subject matter, did Barloworld have a reputation for being clean?

 

[sprinter]

Augustyn is in surgery

Augustyn is having his hip replaced or some similar surgery this weekend. His hip started to degrade similar to Floyd Landis's due to restricted blood supply. I remember he broke his femur in the Tour of Portugal about 4 years ago.

 

[Jamsque]

Out for the season, then? I wonder if Sky will drop his contract.

 

[JRanton]

Can anyone see Sky getting a GC top 10 in a grand tour this year?

I can't see it myself. Perhaps Uran in the Vuelta would be the best chance, assuming he's there.

 

[Jamsque]

If Wiggo can re-capture his 2009 form he could sneak in to the top 10 of the Tour this year, but otherwise no. Uran has no chance.

 

[hatcher]

It's so difficult to predict. At this point last year who would have predicted top 10 GC finishes for all of Porte, Pinotti, Kiserlovski, Hesjedal, Horner, Roche, Danielson, and LLS? There's no reason why Uran, or Possoni, Lofkvist, Wiggins couldn't sneak a Giro/Vuelta top 10 simply by being consistent. Can't see them challenging in any of the GTs though.

 

[ingsve]

Squeezing into the top 10 will probably be the best they could realistically hope for. While none of them look like contenders for even the top 5, most of them still look better than last year, just not in Pais Vasco.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

only uran and wiggins can, but wiggns chances are very slim and uran needs to stay healthy. last yera he was well underway for doing top 5 in vuelta when anton crashed him.

 

[Frosty]

No-one think Mick Rogers still has a chance of getting in the top 10? Suppose it depends how much he is required to work for others - if Wiggins is sruggling in July then he could get a run at the tour.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

No-one think Mick Rogers still has a chance of getting in the top 10?

That would appear to be the case, yes.

 

[Frosty]

That would appear to be the case, yes.

Not sure why you think you speak for the entire forum, maybe his part in helping Cav to so many stage wins (and there have been a lot) has caused you to dislike him. However, to add a little info he finished in the top 10 in the 2006 Tour and 7th in the Giro just two years ago. When joining Sky he said he was probably going to concentrate on week-long stage races but wasnt ruling out the grand tours. The lack of TT miles in the GTs this year is not going to help his chances, but i think he has the ability to scrape a top 10 *if* team leader. Certainly if people are going to mention Possoni and Lovkvist as potential top 10ers then i think Rogers deserves a mention too.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/505141/rogers-confirms-team-sky-move-for-2011-12.html

 

[The Hitch]

Not sure why you think you speak for the entire forum, maybe his part in helping Cav to so many stage wins (and there have been a lot) has caused you to dislike him. However, to add a little info he finished in the top 10 in the 2006 Tour and 7th in the Giro just two years ago. When joining Sky he said he was probably going to concentrate on week-long stage races but wasnt ruling out the grand tours. The lack of TT miles in the GTs this year is not going to help his chances, but i think he has the ability to scrape a top 10 *if* team leader. Certainly if people are going to mention Possoni and Lovkvist as potential top 10ers then i think Rogers deserves a mention too.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/505141/rogers-confirms-team-sky-move-for-2011-12.html

People, and i use that term loosely, have also mentioned Richie Porte and Peter Sagan for TDF top 10. Doesnt mean they actually have a chance. Same with Lofqwist who is doing the Giro and got 19th or some such last year. Even with the best climbers in the world doing Il Giro, I think there is way too much talent in the Tour for Rogers to get a top 10. Those days are over im afraid.

 

[Frosty]

People, and i use that term loosely, have also mentioned Richie Porte and Peter Sagan for TDF top 10. Doesnt mean they actually have a chance. Same with Lofqwist who is doing the Giro and got 19th or some such last year. Even with the best climbers in the world doing Il Giro, I think there is way too much talent in the Tour for Rogers to get a top 10. Those days are over im afraid.

There is probably always a surprise in the top 10 - you'd probably have been scoffing at people who last year suggested that Hesjedal would figure in the top 10 in the tour... How about Wiggins finishing 4th in 2009, bet you would have had a good chortle over that one

Besides there are always people who crash out, get ill, are off form, etc. Therefore saying that someone has the ability to finish 9th or 10th doesnt mean i think they are the 9th or 10th best in the field. As for Lofkvist in the Giro, well he finished 17th in the tour last year, despite having to help Wiggins on occasions. Personally i think Wiggins, Lofkvist and Rogers all have fairly similar chances in that they would probably finish 11th-20th but if things go their way then they could just break into the top 10.

 

[The Hitch]

There is probably always a surprise in the top 10 - you'd probably have been scoffing at people who last year suggested that Hesjedal would figure in the top 10 in the tour... How about Wiggins finishing 4th in 2009, bet you would have had a good chortle over that one

You're right, i would have mocked the suggestion of Wiggins finishing top 10 in 2009. But even that was more different as we had never really seen him try, so there was a chance it could work. With Rogers we have seen him try. Back when Cadel was finishing second in GTs not 5th, and back when Rogers was a much better rider, he scraped a top 10 or two. Now hes on worse form than he was then and the field is stronger.

And you are right people will get injured, falter etc. But even so, I think the number of people likely to beat Rogers numbers closer to 20 than 10.

I mean you have the leaders of the following teams who are likely to beat Rogers.

Ag2r-La Mondiale
Rabobank
Team RadioShack
Astana
Garmin-Cervélo
Team Saxo Bank-SunGard
BMC Racing Team
Lampre-ISD
Team Sky
Liquigas-Cannondale
Omega Pharma-Lotto
Leopard Trek
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Team Movistar

Thats 14. On top of that, Leopard have Frank, and Garmin and Radioshack have about 3 or 4 guys that could beat Rogers. His own team Sky have Wiggins and Uran. Movi have Soler to help Tondo (or vice versa).

And thats not counting possible Giro reinforcements - Purito, Di Luca, Kreuziger, Scarponi. Some of whome will do the Tour.

You have over 20 riders who are likely (in most cases very likely) to beat Rogers. Even with a good performance and lots of people not starting, crashing etc, top 10 is difficult. Especially since hes not even his teams leader and he doesnt have much tt km.

Having said that though, If Uran can get dropped in the ttt, and he can beat Wiggins on the first uphill or on some flat stage, and Sky win the ttt, then he could be in yellow and get protected for a while.

 

[hrotha]

As much as I think Rogers' GT GC days are over, I'd still rate his chances for a top 10 above Di Luca's, or Soler's, and overall I don't think they're much worse than Wiggins'. Hell, he's proved more TdF GC goodness than Urán so far. I don't even think he'll go for a top 10, but if he did it wouldn't be more unlikely than Hesjedal, Le Mevel or Efimkin.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

There is probably always a surprise in the top 10 - you'd probably have been scoffing at people who last year suggested that Hesjedal would figure in the top 10 in the tour... How about Wiggins finishing 4th in 2009, bet you would have had a good chortle over that one

Besides there are always people who crash out, get ill, are off form, etc. Therefore saying that someone has the ability to finish 9th or 10th doesnt mean i think they are the 9th or 10th best in the field. As for Lofkvist in the Giro, well he finished 17th in the tour last year, despite having to help Wiggins on occasions. Personally i think Wiggins, Lofkvist and Rogers all have fairly similar chances in that they would probably finish 11th-20th but if things go their way then they could just break into the top 10.

yeah there are always surprises but rogers is not going to be one of them. his career is only going downhil for a number of years now. one of most overrated cyclists I can think of.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

As much as I think Rogers' GT GC days are over, I'd still rate his chances for a top 10 above Di Luca's, or Soler's, and overall I don't think they're much worse than Wiggins'. Hell, he's proved more TdF GC goodness than Urán so far. I don't even think he'll go for a top 10, but if he did it wouldn't be more unlikely than Hesjedal, Le Mevel or Efimkin.

uran has raced one tour when he was 22. how can you comparfe that to the limtiless amount of chances rogers has had in the tour by now. he himself has said he won't be riding for gc's anymore in gt's.

 

[hrotha]

uran has raced one tour when he was 22. how can you comparfe that to the limtiless amount of chances rogers has had in the tour by now. he himself has said he won't be riding for gc's anymore in gt's.

Exactly, Urán hasn't proved anything yet. I wasn't talking about potential - of course any good 24-year-old is going to have more potential than a 32-year-old who is clearly past his best years.

 

[Boeing]

So if Wiggo is the guy for GC why is he starting Paris Roubaix? Seems a little risky when Le Tour is the end all be all for dudes season

 

[maltiv]

So if Wiggo is the guy for GC why is he starting Paris Roubaix? Seems a little risky when Le Tour is the end all be all for dudes season

He was 25th there in 2009 and he is no longer "all about the TDF" cause that clearly didn't work out.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Not sure why you think you speak for the entire forum, maybe his part in helping Cav to so many stage wins (and there have been a lot) has caused you to dislike him. However, to add a little info he finished in the top 10 in the 2006 Tour and 7th in the Giro just two years ago. When joining Sky he said he was probably going to concentrate on week-long stage races but wasnt ruling out the grand tours. The lack of TT miles in the GTs this year is not going to help his chances, but i think he has the ability to scrape a top 10 *if* team leader. Certainly if people are going to mention Possoni and Lovkvist as potential top 10ers then i think Rogers deserves a mention too.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/505141/rogers-confirms-team-sky-move-for-2011-12.html

I don't think I speak for the entire forum, but that nobody had mentioned it in over 150 posts speaks volumes.

Yes, he finished in the top 10 in 2006 and top 10 of the Giro in 2009, but he is on the wane. He is no longer the TT force he was, and he has never been a capable enough climber to deal with a Grand Tour. If he's really lucky he could hang on like Kim Kirchen did in '08.

Results like Wiggins', Vande Velde's and Hesjedal's top 10s are surprises, yes. But with them, they were people who'd never really been thought of as GC candidates before, and so we didn't know what they were capable of. In some respects they may also have benefited by not being seen as especially threatening by other GC riders. Rogers is different. Rogers has been up there before. He doesn't have the surprise factor. The route doesn't suit him, his career's past its peak and he's just not good enough. If Rogers does a top 10 this year, the racing at the Tour will likely have been depressingly conservative.

Let's also recognise that he's spent most of the last couple of years having bad luck and crashes, and being spent as a glorified leadout man. I wouldn't be surprised if he's used as a helper for Wiggins, but neither of them are really top 10 material unless we have a very thin field (like 2008) or a lot of riders underperform (like 2009). Nowadays I wouldn't say Rogers is far from being about Luís León Sánchez' level of climbing and TTing. Pretty good, able to compete with all but the elites... but not able to compete with all the elites over three weeks. It's just that Luís León is far more willing to try to force things by getting into breaks (see that Col de la Madeleine stage where Caisse tried to inject themselves into the GC) and is a much better stagehunter than Rogers.

Over one week, Rogers can still be a threat. Over three, I very much doubt it.