So who is going to win the Tour, now.

[jimbo7]

r.e. voeckler... is a long shot agreed, but if he's still there come TT you only have to look back to '08 when everyone dismissed sastre in the TT and he easily held of cadel.
even though the GC favs stuffed around with each other the other night, i still liked the fact cadel attacked and chased after andy right at the end... shows he should still have some reserve to punch and counter in the alps when or even if AS/AC attempt to break on them.
sanchez the big danger i think.

 

[Desperate Moments]

I am hoping that my vote just now for Andy will jinx him. Yes, I DO have that power!

My dream podium, in no particular order, would be Alberto, Ivan, Cuddles and ChouChou. Yes, I know that's four, but I'm dreaming...right?

While my nightmare podium would include both Schlecks. And maybe Laurens Ten Dam. Kidding about that last part. I'm a big fan of LTD.

 

[Jeanne]

ok...after rounds of guessing, I voted for Andy also this time.

 

[Wallace]

By not putting real time into Contador in the Pyrenees the Bros Schleck lost their chance. AC's knee will get better and he'll get better. I'd be seriously surprised if either of them puts any time into him in the Alps. One ridiculous aspect of this race is that Frank and Andy seem to think the race is between them and Contador, which completely plays into Cadel's plans--he's been riding a very smart race. Basso will be stronger in the Alps, which will be fun to watch, but since there are some serious descents in those mountains, and since Ivan descends like pre-schooler on a tricycle, and since his ITT skills are almost as bad, he's not a threat for the top step. So it seems to me that the final winner of this race will be either Contador or Evans. God, I hope it's Evans.

 

[Cobblestones]

Money speaks:
(betfair 7:30 EDT)
A. Schleck: 2.96
C. Evans: 3.65
A. Contador: 5.2
T. Voeckler: 13.5
F. Schleck: 16
I. Basso: 32
S. Sanchez: 42
D. Cunego: 400

Seems like a reasonable guess for the top 8.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I still think AS will win, despite his stupidity.
Cuddles shares have certainly increased tho. But I am certain he will crack at least once.

AC is an unknown still, but I doubt we'll see him at his best.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'm expecting something from Contador on the Galibier. Whether that will be enough to win, I don't know.

 

[blaxland]

I'm expecting something from Contador on the Galibier. Whether that will be enough to win, I don't know.

Same goes...And me thinks Riis has a plan for that ascent...Can't wait to see..

 

[Havetts]

The three people who voted on Jelle are aware he's 12 minutes down on the GC, right?

The Legend of Plateau de Beille will live for another year! Or anyway its either A Schleck or Evans.

 

[The Hitch]

The Legend of Plateau de Beille will live for another year! Or anyway its either A Schleck or Evans.

Well I suppose if someone can get Vanendert to fail a test at some point in the next 4 days, then samu will be the winner of Plateau de Beille and the legend can continue

 

[Bennyl]

I would laugh if Contador came good and Ivan and Cadel held on with the 3 of them shuffling the Schlecks off the podium come Paris. It would be sweet to watch and the fallout that would be something to behold.

 

[SarahDane]

Watch for Jelle Vanendert to win, in order to fulfill the legend of the Plateu de beille, when...

He attacks and gains 7 minutes, placing him 9th one minute after Damiano Cunego.

Cunego doesn't realize Galibier was cut off due to snow, and bonks on the Aple d'Huez because of this.

Sanchez mistakes a bunch of goats with his own family, and states afterwards that he dropped out to prepare for the olympics.

Basso decides to take tips from the Schleck regarding tactics, and decides to wait for Schmyd. He shouldn't have.

Andy Schleck forgets to eat (and maybe also how to change his gears) and looses 8 minutes on the Alpe d´Huez.

Thomas Voeckler forgets to eat his spanish beaf before the Alpe d'Huez.

Cadel Evans is in yellow after the Alpe d-Huez (who would have thought) and goes crazy when Hinault tries to shake the hand of his precious lion. They get into a fight, simultaniously injuring Cadel to a degree that makes him lose too much time in the time trial the following day.

Contador is pulled out of the race, when Vino starts his new job on Astana, one of his functions being to clean up in all the old papers. He finds a receit for a caesar-salad for Bertie, on the alledged beef day.

Schleck seems a sure winner with more than 3 minutes to Vanendert before they battle it out in the time trial, but Frankie-boy is followed and stung by the families of the several bees that have already stung him this Tour de France. Jelle reveals some excellent TT skills and wins.

In august, Vino discovers he hasn't done his job very well, when he finds a receit for a spanish beef for Bertie, on the alledged beef day. Bertie is a free man, and lost the tour only because of Vino being better on his bike than in the office.

This is just for fun, and I don't mind any of these riders (except for hmmhmm*Andy*hmmhmm). Take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Franklin]

I recent that MY nickname is coupled with Frank Shreck!

 

[mr. tibbs]

*snip*

Good stuff, SD. Hinault shaking the hand of Cadel's stuffed lion. Haha, I'm going to carry that image for a long time.

 

[the chicken from T]

race situation

It all depends on how stage 18 and 19 are raced.

Evans is the big favorite at the moment.

If anyone of the top 7 is brave enough and decides to attack before the last col on thursday or friday, Cadel and Tommy will be in big trouble and the fight for podium will be between Alberto, Andy, Samuel and Ivan.
If not, the fight for podium will be between Tommy, Cadel, Andy and Alberto.

I do not see Frank as a serious contender.

 

[LaFlorecita]

OK, on stage 12 Fränk looked the strongest of the brothers. But on stage 14 Andy was clearly stronger, Fränk himself said he felt bad during the last few kilometres.
Nontheless, Fränk says he will win the race. But then again, Joost Posthuma says Andy is stronger than Fränk(last paragraph).
Who's the strongest? I'm lost.

 

[warmfuzzies]

The GC favorites must focus their strategy on distancing the yellow jersey. Taking time on each other would be tactical dessert. Right now, I doubt anyone but Evans would be happy riding into the ITT with the current GC splits. I expect we'll see a day where the strongest dozen experience a mountain selection.

 

[Merckx index]

Evans if he stays close to Bert on Stages 18 and 19
Bert if he can gap Evans on one of these stages
Andy if he and Bert drop Evans on 18/19, and he rides the ITT of his life
Frank if he, Andy and Bert drop Evans on 18/19, and he rides the ITT of his life

I think these four are the only ones now with a realistic shot at winning it all. Samu might gain more time on the Schlecks or Basso in tomorrow's descent, but I can't see him putting enough time on both Bert and Evans in the remaining stages to hold them off in the ITT. Ditto with Basso. TV probably could not hold his current edge over Evans in the ITT, and likely will lose some more, at the least.

But any of these three has a reasonable shot at the podium. If SS can pick up a little more time on tomorrow's descent, and stays with the leaders on 18/19, he could leapfrog over the Schlecks on the ITT. If Basso drops everyone but Bert and Andy on 18/19, he could be in third or close enough to it to podium after the ITT. TV needs to stay close to the leaders in 18/19.

 

[spalco]

I'm still sticking with Le Chou Chou, but it's getting harder and harder to predict. I think everyone in the GC up to Basso at 7th still has a chance, and I'm not confident to assign percentages.

When was the last time the Tour de France was this open at this stage? Has it ever been in the last half century?