Stage 16, San Martín del Rey Aurelio - La Farrapona, Lagos de Somiedo

[Sasquatch]

Would be a shame if the kom goes back to bonet

Why?

They want a stage win, and they are best to get it through Lulu. Having Lulu waste his energy to get KOM points is not the right move. They have Bonet there. No one else is going for it. So Lulu can just not do any work, stay in the pack, let Bonet pick up the points, and then launch an attack and go away with it.

It works in theory anyway.

 

[SafeBet]

De Marchi has been very quiet the past few days. I'm expecting fireworks from him today, unless he's ill.

 

[fauniera]

Speaking of fireworks, it would be nice if riders like Barguil or Navarro would try to get into the break. And who is going to stop them? Alto de la Colladonna is quite hard and all the big teams will probably try to get some of their own riders into that break as well. Should be fun. Really annoying that this is on a monday.

 

[TommyPlus]

Guesses on the size of the break?

Over or under 26.5

 

[mrhender]

Guesses on the size of the break?

Over or under 26.5

I think 10-15 will be the mark.. Climbs are too steep, and too many.
I think this will scare a lot of trying..

I'am guessing we will see some of the older guys going for late career glory..
Evans, Monfort, Zubeldia, Cunego etc...

If Wilco manages to join the break, I think he will take it...

 

[TommyPlus]

One of these to win from the break :-

Luis Leon Sanchez
Mikel Nieve
Jerome Coppel
Jose Serpa
Cadel Evans

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't get why some cycling fans in this thread want Contador to drop everyone and increase his already quite healthy 30-second lead. I don't get this mindset at all - even if you "hate" the other contenders. Surely it's much more entertaining if he continues to lose some time and manages to snatch the win in the end by just a couple seconds? The mental blow to Valverde or whoever comes second would be much harder also.

 

[Pantani_lives]

For the suspense it would be ideal if Valverde took the red jersey with 10 secs on Contador and 15 on Froome. That would lead to an exciting 10K time trial!

 

[SeriousSam]

If the Dawg has a good day today Contador might just unravel.

 

[SafeBet]

I think 10-15 will be the mark.. Climbs are too steep, and too many.
I think this will scare a lot of trying..

I'am guessing we will see some of the older guys going for late career glory..
Evans, Monfort, Zubeldia, Cunego etc...

If Wilco manages to join the break, I think he will take it...

Monfort and Zubeldia in the break together, the forum would go bananas.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

If the Dawg has a good day today Contador might just unravel.

froome has no chance todya. rain and descends

 

[mrhender]

Monfort and Zubeldia in the break together, the forum would go bananas.

Probably yes

Expect the unexpected....

Anyway I just hope for epic racing..

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Here's the weather:

 

[mrhender]

BTW this stage should have live tv-coverage from start to finish...

I don't understand how it can't be so...

 

[Miburo]

froome has no chance todya. rain and descends

Idk, i got this bad feeling that he might go mental.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I don't get why some cycling fans in this thread want Contador to drop everyone and increase his already quite healthy 30-second lead. I don't get this mindset at all - even if you "hate" the other contenders. Surely it's much more entertaining if he continues to lose some time and manages to snatch the win in the end by just a couple seconds? The mental blow to Valverde or whoever comes second would be much harder also.

It's simple really.

If he "manages to snatch the win in the end by just a couple seconds" it could've gone either way. Now, if you want Contador to win, you couldn't care less about excitement and entertainment. You'd rather see a somewhat boring race with Contador as more or less the certain winner, than an exciting race in which he has a 50% chance to lose.

 

[Savant12]

Idk, i got this bad feeling that he might go mental.

For exciting viewing, I think we all want to see Froome go full mental.

 

[burning]

Perfect conditions for this man

 

[Asturiano]

Here's the weather:

A big sunny day in Gijón (where I live) right now, just the same for Peloton too right now but it can change very fast.

 

[Asturiano]

BTW this stage should have live tv-coverage from start to finish...

I don't understand how it can't be so...

Not enough budget. Vuelta doesn't have as much money as Tour.

 

[Cimber]

For exciting viewing, I think we all want to see Froome go full mental.

Not really. I prefer Purito to go mental, early. And maybe Movistar to attack on the descent of the penultimo climb.

I know Contador wants to drop the others, but really , he should just cover attacks. Also TS would want a break to take it to eliminate bonus seconds

 

[Ryongsyong]

I can't see Froome's yo-yo tactics working here. If he is going to drop ten seconds on each of these climbs then he will have a lot of work to do to catch up with Contador. Hopefully, we see some attacks on the penultimate climb with only the main GC guys together for the final climb.

Err ... he's not actually yoyoing himself you know. He's going up at a steady pace and catches up when the others slow down. He and Contador have done the last 350km in the same time, but clearly he's used far less energy to do that. Whether he had less energy to start with, and whether he can actually do anything with this advantage, is another question and seems less certain.

More of an issue for him, is if it's raining and he's descending at "his own pace" too, then he's going to have some problems.

 

[Asturiano]

 

[SeriousSam]

It's simple really.

If he "manages to snatch the win in the end by just a couple seconds" it could've gone either way. Now, if you want Contador to win, you couldn't care less about excitement and entertainment. You'd rather see a somewhat boring race with Contador as more or less the certain winner, than an exciting race in which he has a 50% chance to lose.

If this is your view, you should be honest and admit that your problem with other riders' tactics is that they aren't good for Contador's prospects, as opposed to lacking in "courage".

Yesterday's "Valverde is a coward!" should have been "Valverde's tactics prevent Contador from putting his Dawg paranoia to rest, what a *******!"

 

[Pantani_lives]

I know Contador wants to drop the others, but really , he should just cover attacks. Also TS would want a break to take it to eliminate bonus seconds

If he's good he should attack in the final 5K, which are steep. However we've seen that he has a problem following the acceleration in the final K. Valverde can still win the Vuelta by taking some bonifications and some real seconds, so I agree it's better for Contador if a breakaway is successful.