Stage 18: Belluno - Rifugio Panarotta (Valsugana) 171 km

[gospina]

Interesting to see, although we can still just speculate about scenario if all riders arrived in the same group to the bottom of Van Martello. One question though. Why did you use 1m30s if teams agreed to 2m?

I had read that they had said 90 seconds. If we use 120 seconds,
Uran is 1st, Nairo is 2nd by 19 seconds. Rest remains in the same 1m30sec order. My guess is that it will be a moot point after tomorrow's stage

 

[Cookster15]

What about the 2008 Tour or 2009 Dauphiné though? Even the 2009 Vuelta when Evans did precisely nothing to gain back the time that was lost in the puncture incident? It is far too simplistic an answer to the question. There's more than just "cycling got cleaner" that led to the shift in Evans' fortunes. And Evans ranked on CQ #1 in the world in 2007, #3 in 2008 and 2009, but #6 in 2010 (yes, he got hurt at the Tour, but he wasn't going to contend for it, BMC 2010 weren't strong enough to support him at one GT let alone two). Evans was a timid racer riding for a team who had several competing goals and when they did try to support him, their selection policy and signing policy was naïve and foolish. And the 2011 Tour that he won had a convicted doper on the podium as well, of course.

Unless you mean the banning of the big psychological stumbling block for Evans that was Alejandro Valverde.

2008 Tour Evans crashed badly on about stage 8 or 9. He never recovered from that. 2009 Dauphiné - a training race. 2009 Vuelta, who knows he was racing for Lotto then and Evans did seem mentally fragile without team support that he eventually enjoyed at BMC. The wheel change fiasco by Lotto was inexcusable. I've explained my thinking about AC in 2011 in the clinic. Valverde? LOL - lets not go there. There is no doubt Evans raced timidly - but there were good reasons for that and for some to beat up on him over then is poor form (not you btw).

I was looking in here back in 2007 and couldn't believe all the wheel sucking, not attacking rubbish about Evans. I mean have these people never raced a bike? Anyone knows when you are at your limit you cannot attack. Particularly on a long climb.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

2008 Tour Evans crashed badly on about stage 8 or 9. He never recovered from that. 2009 Dauphiné - a training race. 2009 Vuelta, who knows he was racing for Lotto then and Evans did seem mentally fragile without team support that he eventually enjoyed at BMC. The wheel change fiasco by Lotto was inexcusable. I've explained my thinking about AC in 2011 in the clinic. Valverde? LOL - lets not go there. There is no doubt Evans raced timidly - but there were good reasons for that and for some to beat up on him over then is poor form (not you btw).

I was looking in here back in 2007 and couldn't believe all the wheel sucking, not attacking rubbish about Evans. I mean have these people never raced a bike? Anyone knows when you are at your limit you cannot attack. Particularly on a long climb.

Let's not rewrite history. The guy has made up for his lost time since that decisive World Championships win, but to say that it was rubbish to say he seldom attacked before then is a fallacy. He wasn't the Leipheimer clone he was sometimes made out to be, but Evans is a guy who has traditionally gone deep into the red to stay in the front group, so when he's really on the rivet, if he drops, he drops hard. He's like the polar opposite to Carlos Sastre, who would let go of the group and then ride the climb like there was nobody else there; several times we'd see him gapped early, only to reappear near the front at the end. But there were a number of times when Evans would sit in and be happy to go at the group's pace, and not take the initiative. For a long time, it seemed like he was too scared of losing to try to win (and for a long time, he held the advantage in the TT over his opponents and therefore he could afford to, as well, of course). It was only relatively late that he got over that. The World Championships win was a big part of that, and the psychological difference that the move to BMC made. The BMC team in 2010 was far too weak to support Evans, yet his results almost matched those of before then (plus he actually won important stuff like Flèche and the Montalcino stage); he had been given some disappointing support teams at Lotto, but at BMC he was handed some backup that was simply not good enough even on paper, yet it was almost as if knowing going in that the team wasn't strong enough (as opposed to just fearing it at Lotto) made him more determined to prove the doubters wrong and go all in for himself.

And I referenced Valverde simply because Valverde seemed to have a bit of a psychological hex on Evans for a while, and Evans developed a habit of being a nearly man in the races Valverde was winning. Of course, then The Don went bye-bye for a bit.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

2008 Tour Evans crashed badly on about stage 8 or 9. He never recovered from that. 2009 Dauphiné - a training race. 2009 Vuelta, who knows he was racing for Lotto then and Evans did seem mentally fragile without team support that he eventually enjoyed at BMC. The wheel change fiasco by Lotto was inexcusable. I've explained my thinking about AC in 2011 in the clinic. Valverde? LOL - lets not go there. There is no doubt Evans raced timidly - but there were good reasons for that and for some to beat up on him over then is poor form (not you btw).

I was looking in here back in 2007 and couldn't believe all the wheel sucking, not attacking rubbish about Evans. I mean have these people never raced a bike? Anyone knows when you are at your limit you cannot attack. Particularly on a long climb.

 

[movingtarget]

Let's not rewrite history. The guy has made up for his lost time since that decisive World Championships win, but to say that it was rubbish to say he seldom attacked before then is a fallacy. He wasn't the Leipheimer clone he was sometimes made out to be, but Evans is a guy who has traditionally gone deep into the red to stay in the front group, so when he's really on the rivet, if he drops, he drops hard. He's like the polar opposite to Carlos Sastre, who would let go of the group and then ride the climb like there was nobody else there; several times we'd see him gapped early, only to reappear near the front at the end. But there were a number of times when Evans would sit in and be happy to go at the group's pace, and not take the initiative. For a long time, it seemed like he was too scared of losing to try to win (and for a long time, he held the advantage in the TT over his opponents and therefore he could afford to, as well, of course). It was only relatively late that he got over that. The World Championships win was a big part of that, and the psychological difference that the move to BMC made. The BMC team in 2010 was far too weak to support Evans, yet his results almost matched those of before then (plus he actually won important stuff like Flèche and the Montalcino stage); he had been given some disappointing support teams at Lotto, but at BMC he was handed some backup that was simply not good enough even on paper, yet it was almost as if knowing going in that the team wasn't strong enough (as opposed to just fearing it at Lotto) made him more determined to prove the doubters wrong and go all in for himself.

And I referenced Valverde simply because Valverde seemed to have a bit of a psychological hex on Evans for a while, and Evans developed a habit of being a nearly man in the races Valverde was winning. Of course, then The Don went bye-bye for a bit.

Some people seem to think that the so called wheel sucker tag for Evans before 2009 was simply because that was the best he could do. Follow wheels and he usually only made up ground in the TTs. I think there is some truth in that. He was not riding conservatively, it was simply the best he could do. Evans won the Tour by being consistent not by attacking but by reacting to the attacks of others and riding well in the TT so his style never really changed even when he won. In reality he is very similar to Leipheimer in his style of riding. He was more versatile and talented than Leipheimer but the style was similar.

Lotto made a huge mistake not re-signing Horner for Evans even after Evans had praised Horner as the best domestique he had ever had on his team in the mountains. I think that was the beginning of the end for Evans at Lotto.

 

[movingtarget]

Alas, the Australian press hasn't heard the news yet.

"Cadel Evans may pedal on for Vuelta a Espana"

I think he will ride the Vuelta more as a tune up for the Worlds and to support Sanchez. I don't think his recovery supports two grand tours a year anymore but he he always completes his GTs so it's a bit of a strange one. He obviously won't start and pull out but if he does because of fatigue that is his shot at the Worlds gone as well. He said before that his Giro ride would decide his future plans so if he continues riding next year he has to change his schedule. I don't see him as the type to just ride as a domestique. Maybe he just loves riding the bike like Jens and Horner and wants to continue without pressure re getting results like before.