Tour de France Stage 4: Amiens – Rouen (174.2k)

[Red Rick]

I don‘t think the climbs should bother MVDP that much. Even the final climb is only 800 meters, you won‘t find any shorter in the final of a Tour stage.

Rodez is shorter, that's like 500m 10% coming in at high speed.

But for this stage specifically it would be handy if we had any datapoints from Van der Poel in Fleche.

 

[Jagartrott]

It'll all depend on how 'full' the main GC guys and main puncheur types will race the final climbs. In stage 2, they were not ridden 100% full and no-one really followed up on any attack after cresting the climb. Van der Poel can survive and win if the same scenario repeats (made more likely with a headwind), but I doubt he can really follow the best on these sort of climbs.

 

[Didinho]

Me thinking Wellens took the KOM jersey so Pogi can ride the TT in his tailormade suit. If he goes all in today he will probably be in yellow. Mathieu wants to defend the jersey today, if he can get over the steep parts he should attack himself in between the hills. Otherwise someone else win solo.

That being said, I predicted the 3 previous stage winners in Sporza Tourmanager correct. Any suggestions for today? Spoiler alert, I'm taking Vauquelin (late solo attack) or Remco in a 3 way sprint with Pogi and Vingo.

 

[rghysens]

Pogačar and probably Vignegaard to get rid of everyone else. Jorgenson, Almeida, Vauquelin, vdp in a 2nd group. Evenepoel losing a minute or so.

 

[Cycling111]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942500967217520814

View: https://x.com/ProCyclingStats/status/1942500967217520814

 

[rghysens]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942500967217520814

View: https://x.com/ProCyclingStats/status/1942500967217520814

Ohhhh dear. ..

 

[dobrien]

That being said, I predicted the 3 previous stage winners in Sporza Tourmanager correct. Any suggestions for today? Spoiler alert, I'm taking Vauquelin (late solo attack) or Remco in a 3 way sprint with Pogi and Vingo.

It would be awesome to see Vauquelin take this one; also would love to see Ala confirm that he's got something to say this Tour. I'm not French but I am always happy to see a Frenchman light it up for the home team!

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

@Devil's Elbow @Earns1985

Cheers! Yeah, I did remember the Tirreno stage but that's not too comparible because it was essentially a long range solo. I completely forgot about the Suisse stage.
I'm still a bit skeptical that he would be among the top 5 at the top if UAE/Visma go all out especially if it's not a fast run in into the climb due to the sharp curve at the bottom. But I still think he'd be close enough to contest for the stage and maybe Pogacar doesn't even attack, who knows.

 

[Cycling111]

All teams will be fighting for position anyway coming into that climb, I think the intermediate sprint will work to string out the bunch a bit maybe.

I don't agree.

If they had put the intermediate sprint on earlier, Jonathan Milan and other sprinters wouldn't be fighting for position before the climb.
All the teams will be fighting for position: sprinters, GC contenders, and the punchers who want the stage.

 

[fenns]

Looking at the route 30km from finish there's the Cote de Belbeuf 1.3km @ 9.3%.

Would be nice to think someone might attack but seems more likely UAE and Jumbo Visma will smother the stage.

 

[Didinho]

Most of the Rampe Saint-Hilaire is really small. Even without spectators. It gets a bit wider to the top. Positioning will be even more important at the start of the climb.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What's the hardest climb MVDP has ever won/gotten over with the top guys?

I feel like he sometimes gets slightly overrated on gradients above 8% but maybe that's just my selected memory.
I could see a scenario where he isn't among the first few to crest but because GC guys like Pog and Vingegaard will cancel each other out he comes back and wins from the reduced group.

Yeah, it's a plausible scenario that MVP loses a few seconds to the mutants at the top but catches them on the downhill and wins the finish.

 

[gavia88]

I would say MvdP is one of the favorite for Today, but a bit less than 2 days ago. First, the final is a bit thougher and especially the final climb is super tricky, I would say, already outside the "comfort" zone from MvdP. But, maybe more important, the final has more opportunities for all kind of attacks (all kind of riders), so it will be much less likely it wil be a sprint like 2 days ago. MvdP can't counter every attack. So, he needs the help from UEA or Visma to control the whole final or he should (counter-) attack himself. But considering he is the favorite, people will always follow him.

 

[Red Rick]

Most of the Rampe Saint-Hilaire is really small. Even without spectators. It gets a bit wider to the top. Positioning will be even more important at the start of the climb.

MvdP will remember his Alpecin heritage and just Roadblock FC that ***

 

[Mayomaniac]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942500967217520814

View: https://x.com/ProCyclingStats/status/1942500967217520814

El Supercrashico!

 

[Red Rick]

El Supercrashico!

Here's what you do.

You and your entire team follow the leadout for the intermediate sprint then you continue and get all your climby dudes in the first 20 on the first cat 3.

 

[Rackham]

Looks like Meeus is out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942532093675819322

View: https://x.com/Cocaloca99/status/1942532093675819322

 

[Berniece]

I'm still putting my money on MVDP. That last hill is only steep for 400m. The rest is fine. How much time can one really take there? If Vingegaard follows Pogacar, he won't work with him. If Pogacar drops everyone, they'll all work together to get him back. I don't see Pogacar finishing solo here.

 

[Berniece]

Looks like Meeus is out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942532093675819322

View: https://x.com/Cocaloca99/status/1942532093675819322

No, he's still riding according to pre-race interview at Sporza

 

[RobertCrawley]

Good morning, chaps!

It's another Mathieu kind of day. But the GC guys will want to stay in from to avoid crashes in the narrow final with all the $#(@ in the road.

 

[Rackham]

No, he's still riding according to pre-race interview at Sporza

Coming exclusively today...

"The mystery of Meeus".

7 riders signed in... 8 started... leaving X confused.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm still putting my money on MVDP. That last hill is only steep for 400m. The rest is fine. How much time can one really take there? If Vingegaard follows Pogacar, he won't work with him. If Pogacar drops everyone, they'll all work together to get him back. I don't see Pogacar finishing solo here.

That's steep for 800m and it will feel longer because of the sprint to the base, and then the first steep 400m will probably be a sprint leadout to the chicane.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Meeus is both in and out, and Wellness (stupid autocorrect) has probably already been dropped according to PCS.

 

[noob]

Look at the intro and tell me people doesn't like to watch crashes.

I flinch when watching it or look away. But it seems cyclists wants it to be part of cycling

 

[RobertCrawley]

The team says Thinco is OK, but a fall is a serious blow. It extremely difficult to do well in this race even in the absolute best of circumstances. A fall can make sleep more difficult if there's road rash and we know Thinkco is an emotional rider who will feel this. Let's hope he rides out of it.