Stage 9 TDS: Liestal ITT - 26.9km

[BroDeal]

Even if he doesn't win, he's already going to have microphones around him all the time, and use the platform to proclaim his innocence day after day. If he only wins a stage, or even ends up in yellow for a day, that will be a huge trump for him, and he'll be constantly talking about how true he is, and how clean he is, and how he never doped, never would, and this performance proves it.

Then what happens if months down the line, what Landis has proclaimed turns out to be validated by the federal investigation? Even if only some of it?

Flandis has Armstrong by the ball. If he wants to squeeze then he can make the Tour intolerable for Armstrong. All he has to do is release information slowly during the Tour, a juicy little nugget every day would cause a sh!t storm to envelop the race. It might be a good way to get some revenge on the ASO for taking away his title while celebrating Arsmtrong, Pantani, Ullrich, Riis, and others.

 

[kurtinsc]

Overall, Frank looked incredible. That TT bodes really well for him in the Tour.

Assuming nobody is peaking too early (someone probably did) this looks good for Lance if his goal is a podium. If he's still trying to win... well he has no shot. But if he rides for 3rd place I think he could repeat last year's result.

If Frank gets team leadership and can TT like this... he may be a better bet then Andy this year.

Regardless, those saying Lance didnt' have a shot of a finish better then a borderline top 10 should admit that he's looking like a solid top 5 finisher at this point. The Tour is still Contador's to lose, but Lance is looking decent.

 

[issoisso]

It never ceases to amaze me how every single year a ton of people say that X is better than Y and is going to be team leader or whatever, based on their June performance, and then are surprised when the inevitable happens and it turns out they peaked too early.

 

[Christian]

Flandis has Armstrong by the balls.

loool priceless!!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think Isso pretty much has it right. How many times have we seen someone dominate the Dauphine (Suisse, etc.), or someone get completely dropped there, and a month later in the Tour it's a completely different story? Amazing how short our memories are. Me too at times I guess.

Anyone remember the 2004 Dauphine? How about the 2006 Dauphine?

(Clinic related reasons aside).

 

[Publicus]

Overall, Frank looked incredible. That TT bodes really well for him in the Tour.

Assuming nobody is peaking too early (someone probably did) this looks good for Lance if his goal is a podium. If he's still trying to win... well he has no shot. But if he rides for 3rd place I think he could repeat last year's result.

If Frank gets team leadership and can TT like this... he may be a better bet then Andy this year.

Regardless, those saying Lance didnt' have a shot of a finish better then a borderline top 10 should admit that he's looking like a solid top 5 finisher at this point. The Tour is still Contador's to lose, but Lance is looking decent.

I don't think he looks like a solid top 5 finisher. Top 10, certainly. A possible for a top 5.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Flandis has Armstrong by the ball...

You think you're funny, don't you boy?

 

[Mellow Velo]

For every "peak too early", there's a Lance Dauphine or Swiss win.
Peaking too early only effects human beings.

Lance's lads look solid enough to tow him to around the top 5 mark, but he can't go any further under his own steam.
A race that used to be about making big gains in the ITTs and on one mountain stage is now about limiting time loses.

 

[Parrot23]

Let's not forget that the TdS has been tailored for Cancellara...

The TT today makes me wonder: beaten by Martin and nearly caught by Zabriskie. Has Cance. backed off on his program/batteries, whatever, no matter how absurd. Seems absurd, but.... Makes me wonder even more about his Spring.

And Schleck in the TT.

Confused, I am

 

[ttrider]

Difference is Frank is DEFINITELY not peaking his climbing was usual hes just improved his TT so yes he probably should lead Andy on that evidence

 

[issoisso]

Another fact that should be mentioned is that riders who peaked for the Classics or the Giro usually get their form earlier when training for their second peak, and not so much for July, while Andy didn't peak in April due to injury, so not only is he likely to take a bit longer to achieve form, he is also likely to achieve better form, as he is better rested.

Difference is Frank is DEFINITELY not peaking

How do you know?

 

[Parrot23]

I think Isso pretty much has it right. How many times have we seen someone dominate the Dauphine (Suisse, etc.), or someone get completely dropped there, and a month later in the Tour it's a completely different story? Amazing how short our memories are. Me too at times I guess.

Anyone remember the 2004 Dauphine? How about the 2006 Dauphine?

(Clinic related reasons aside).

Yes, very true, Alpe. But I don't agree with those here who are saying Lance has peaked too soon. He's been really short race miles. TDS form he needed.

MellowVelo, yes agree it's about limiting losses for him. But I'm skeptical about Frank Schleck's ability to deliver vs. a battle-tested and wily Armstrong at big moments. Doubt Lance will be weaker than at last year's Tour, so the other folks better be a lot stronger if they want him off the podium. Pressure will eat away at Frank, but not Lance.

There's not been a lot of talk about Basso and Evans. Focus on Frank Schleck plays into their hands, if they've not burnt their matches at the Giro.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think Isso pretty much has it right. How many times have we seen someone dominate the Dauphine (Suisse, etc.), or someone get completely dropped there, and a month later in the Tour it's a completely different story? Amazing how short our memories are. Me too at times I guess.

Anyone remember the 2004 Dauphine? How about the 2006 Dauphine?

(Clinic related reasons aside).

Thanks for the reminder of the 2006 Dauphiné. Forgot about Kohl being up on the podium there - so he wasn't quite the rags and riches tale he was trumped as in his 2008 breakout (and breakdown) performance. Man, he looked like a nodding dog toy when he climbed.

 

[BroDeal]

The TT today makes me wonder: beaten by Martin and nearly caught by Zabriskie. Has Cance. backed off on his program/batteries, whatever, no matter how absurd. Seems absurd, but.... Makes me wonder even more about his Spring.

And Schleck in the TT.

Confused, I am

Schleck took Cancellara's motorized bike by accident. Both were surprised.

 

[Publicus]

Yes, very true, Alpe. But I don't agree with those here who are saying Lance has peaked too soon. He's been really short race miles. TDS form he needed.

MellowVelo, yes agree it's about limiting losses for him. But I'm skeptical about Frank Schleck's ability to deliver vs. a battle-tested and wily Armstrong at big moments. Doubt Lance will be weaker than at last year's Tour, so the other folks better be a lot stronger if they want him off the podium. Pressure will eat away at Frank, but not Lance.

There's not been a lot of talk about Basso and Evans. Focus on Frank Schleck plays into their hands, if they've not burnt their matches at the Giro.

I don't think Lance will be weaker than last year, but conversely, I don't think he will be stronger (certainly nothing to date would support such a conclusion). More important, I think will be the changes in the course, the projected depth of the field and, I think this point is not addressed enough, he's going to have to race AC every stage to win. On the latter point, he did that exactly once. Verbier.

 

[thehog]

Thanks for the reminder of the 2006 Dauphiné. Forgot about Kohl being up on the podium there - so he wasn't quite the rags and riches tale he was trumped as in his 2008 breakout (and breakdown) performance. Man, he looked like a nodding dog toy when he climbed.

Vino at the 2007 Dauphine was the best. He'd obviously had dropped a pint and would give up on the mountain stages with 30 or kms to go. At one point he was laughing and waving at the camera as he dropped off. He knew he'd come back like tank with blood back in the system come July.

 

[auscyclefan94]

It would depend on HOW/WHY he won. If he suddenly starts dropping folks in the mountains (say the Brothers Schleck), it will be a very dark stain on the sport. If Andy or AC are hurt/ill/not up to snuff and Armstrong guts out a win by riding smart (minimize losses in the mountains) and pulls off a good TT (like here), then I don't think you can realistically do anything other than say chapeau and pull on your waders.

I don't want to think about Lance winning. I will hang my very self live on this forum.

 

[Parrot23]

I don't think Lance will be weaker than last year, but conversely, I don't think he will be stronger (certainly nothing to date would support such a conclusion). More important, I think will be the changes in the course, the projected depth of the field and, I think this point is not addressed enough, he's going to have to race AC every stage to win. On the latter point, he did that exactly once. Verbier.

Certainly agree on what you say on racing Bertie each time, but I think he's racing for spots 2 and 3 on podium. I'm not even thinking of Bertie here, but Lance vs. the others. The course if anything is better for him this year if he's climbing better than he is TT'ing.

One thing, too, remember they have all of Bertie's watt numbers on accelerations now, and remember Jani Brak dialing him back each time at the Dauphine by looking at/gauging his SRM carefully. Just a thought. I don't buy the explosiveness card here that it necessarily invalidates Lance's climbing. You know I think Bertie is going to win, but this is something else in the mix.

Not tenable to think Lance is going to be exactly the same, LOL. What, balanced on the head of a pin? Second in TDS is better than last year and 2 years of training in his legs doesn't lead me to believe he'll be worse.

Per the Hog on Vino, Lance is only going to get stronger in the next few weeks, way stronger.

 

[ferryman]

Another fact that should be mentioned is that riders who peaked for the Classics or the Giro usually get their form earlier when training for their second peak, and not so much for July, while Andy didn't peak in April due to injury, so not only is he likely to take a bit longer to achieve form, he is also likely to achieve better form, as he is better rested.



How do you know?

Good first point. I think Andy is a wee bit behind but getting there. I didn't see much of TDS live but from what I've read and seen it seems to me AS was testing himself with some accelerations. I think he has been on record on saying that if you let Bertie go it is almost impossible to get his wheel, so good on AS for putting in practice what he sees as a problem.


As for Frank, well I'm more and more getting a feeling this could be his year. His line in the ITT from above was very impressive. And he did look very smooth. And yes, I know it is F Schleck and a ITT but his whole position on the TT bike did look very good.

 

[The Hitch]

Just watched the race.
Who sais TT's are boring. Huh, who says that.

Cancellara wasnt in on peak form i dont think but still great performance by Tony Martin. Hes still young and could become next Cancellara. In fact i think he could be a good bet for the tt rainbow jersey since surely Canc must be getting tired of winning it all the time, particularly with the world rr 3 days later, considering Canc wants to win that as well.


As for tour, I dont think the riders have peaked to early as it wasnt that hard a tour de suiss (at least in Criterium they did the Alpe de huez) and most of the tour contenders stayed together most of the time. Frank went in the last km on stage 3 and Gesink went a bit earlier on the queen stage, but neither put in that much time. If riders are peaking to early then surely all of them- Frank, gesink, armstrong are peaking to early (unlikely)

i think Lance will now top 5 at least. Frank should do well. Even if he does an appauling tt in the tour, that would probably mean losing 2 mins to armstrong and he can get a lot of that back on the tourmalet alone ( if he and andy want to).

As for "what if bertie crashes" and Lance wins. well the odds on favourite rarely if ever crashes out like that. Maybe thats what Ulrich was hoping for all those years when he came 2nd
It didnt work then and it wont work for armstrong now

 

[hrotha]

But what if Armstrong crashes and withdraws while in yellow.

 

[van nelle]

Agree with Isso and you guys. No way one can paste and copy TDS results toTDF. Andy will be there for sure and I think Roman too.
+ Saxo will be strong as hell

 

[BroDeal]

The sad thing about this is that it looks like the BMC guys have come into form two months too late to help Evans at the Giro.

 

[Publicus]

Certainly agree on what you say on racing Bertie each time, but I think he's racing for spots 2 and 3 on podium. I'm not even thinking of Bertie here, but Lance vs. the others. The course if anything is better for him this year if he's climbing better than he is TT'ing.

One thing, too, remember they have all of Bertie's watt numbers on accelerations now, and remember Jani Brak dialing him back each time at the Dauphine by looking at/gauging his SRM carefully. Just a thought. I don't buy the explosiveness card here that it necessarily invalidates Lance's climbing. You know I think Bertie is going to win, but this is something else in the mix.

Not tenable to think Lance is going to be exactly the same, LOL. What, balanced on the head of a pin? Second in TDS is better than last year and 2 years of training in his legs doesn't lead me to believe he'll be worse.

Per the Hog on Vino, Lance is only going to get stronger in the next few weeks, way stronger.

If the goal is to watch their power meters, then I suspect we will see a lot of Verbier like performance from AC. Also I wouldn't put too much on AC's or JB's performance at the Dauphine. AC was coming off a 2 month break and JB, by his own admission, was targeting that race. Not taking anything away from Jani's ride, mind you.

As for Lance not getting any stronger or weaker, I would just say that athletes are known to plateau in their performance. I don't know that there is more to what he has to offer than what he's shown to date.

Agree with Isso and you guys. No way one can paste and copy TDS results toTDF. Andy will be there for sure and I think Roman too.
+ Saxo will be strong as hell

As will Liquigas. It's going to be a heck of Tour if the kids all come out to play and not hold too much back waiting on the final week.

 

[Publicus]

Agree with Isso and you guys. No way one can paste and copy TDS results toTDF. Andy will be there for sure and I think Roman too.
+ Saxo will be strong as hell

As will Liquigas. It's going to be a heck of Tour if the kids all come out to play and not hold too much back waiting on the final week.