State of the peloton 2022

[fatissimo]

Slovenia have a doping program? Like as in a state thing? No....

Have some guys in Slovenia got onto something or some things that has spread among a few of them? That seems more reasonable. Maybe some officials turn the blind eye as well...who knows, but if anyone things it's just by chance that Slovenia is the dominant nation in cycling at the moment, being no larger than the city I am living in, with even less of a cycling culture, I think you have to reconsider visiting "The Clinic".

 

[topt]

Slovenia have a doping program? Like as in a state thing? No....

Have some guys in Slovenia got onto something or some things that has spread among a few of them? That seems more reasonable. Maybe some officials turn the blind eye as well...who knows, but if anyone things it's just by chance that Slovenia is the dominant nation in cycling at the moment, being no larger than the city I am living in, with even less of a cycling culture, I think you have to reconsider visiting "The Clinic".

well, I guess you know since you are the one coming here with this accusations. So, Slovenia is on to some new drug that is distrubuting to their top riders, are there other athletes involved, would love to hear it, guys like Luka Doncic..... and where do you live that has more of a cycling coulture than Slovenia ?
and some officals are turning a blind eye, any recommendation where should I start investigating ?

 

[fbjim]

crossposting from the Pogacar thread since it's more appropriate here

I was actually pleasantly surprised in a "clinic" way today. I was certain this was going to be one of those EPO era MSR's where it was impossible to drop anyone on the Poggio and as a result you had Cipo, Petacchi and Cavendish winning.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Slovenia have a doping program? Like as in a state thing? No....

Have some guys in Slovenia got onto something or some things that has spread among a few of them? That seems more reasonable. Maybe some officials turn the blind eye as well...who knows, but if anyone things it's just by chance that Slovenia is the dominant nation in cycling at the moment, being no larger than the city I am living in, with even less of a cycling culture, I think you have to reconsider visiting "The Clinic".

So would a rider like Roglic coming out of Slovenia be unthinkable?
Would a rider like Pogacar coming out of Slovenia be unthinkable?

Assuming both answers are no ( and I think you would need to provide compelling reasons why not), then you would need to explain why the existence of Roglic makes the existence of Pogacar less likely. Or vice versa.

Or refrain from arguments based on 'chance' unless you understand the principle of independent probabilities.

 

[Netserk]

We saw several Slovenians race very well yesterday (Polanc, Tratnik, Rogla, Pogi, Mohoric), but I think that has more to do with their teams than their flag. When trying to explain Colbrelli's form last year, it makes far more sense to point the finger at Bahrain than Italy. Slovenians just happens to cluster in certain teams.

And just like no one could predict that Slovakia would produce the biggest talent of the 2010's, Slovenia just happens to be the home of Pogi.

I would be more inclined to think the fact that they are Slovenians play a more central role if you could demonstrate a plausible difference their NADO makes, or if you could make the case that their doping is team independent and that there's a Slovenian doping ring.

 

[Ripper]

We saw several Slovenians race very well yesterday (Polanc, Tratnik, Rogla, Pogi, Mohoric), but I think that has more to do with their teams than their flag. When trying to explain Colbrelli's form last year, it makes far more sense to point the finger at Bahrain than Italy. Slovenians just happens to cluster in certain teams.

And just like no one could predict that Slovakia would produce the biggest talent of the 2010's, Slovenia just happens to be the home of Pogi.

I would be more inclined to think the fact that they are Slovenians play a more central role if you could demonstrate a plausible difference their NADO makes, or if you could make the case that their doping is team independent and that there's a Slovenian doping ring.

Too add, BV and UAE are, as teams, dodgy as f***.

 

[therealthing]

UAE are now on 20 wins, Marc Hirschi just won his first race back, and first race for 154 days.

Last year it took them until July to reach 20 wins.

 

[fatissimo]

Slovakia produced one talent-Slovenia has produced 3. Slovakia is also 2.5 times larger in population than Slovenia, for what that is worth.....not much to people invested I'll reckon.

 

[fatissimo]

well, I guess you know since you are the one coming here with this accusations. So, Slovenia is on to some new drug that is distrubuting to their top riders, are there other athletes involved, would love to hear it, guys like Luka Doncic..... and where do you live that has more of a cycling coulture than Slovenia ?
and some officals are turning a blind eye, any recommendation where should I start investigating ?

I get it, you're invested. You see no issues with tiny countries pumping out world-beaters 3 at a time. Ok!

 

[fatissimo]

So would a rider like Roglic coming out of Slovenia be unthinkable?
Would a rider like Pogacar coming out of Slovenia be unthinkable?

Assuming both answers are no ( and I think you would need to provide compelling reasons why not), then you would need to explain why the existence of Roglic makes the existence of Pogacar less likely. Or vice versa.

Or refrain from arguments based on 'chance' unless you understand the principle of independent probabilities.

First off, it's The Clinic, I don't have to refrain from making any arguments, thank you.

Second, GT winner production isn't just a strict matter of chance. There is no way you can convince me that this is the case and it would need to be the case for your argument of independent probabilities to be valid.

Third, my argument, pretty simple really, is that instances of countries producing 3 champions, at the same time, when that country can barely field 40 or 50 elite riders, seems a bit rich. I'm not interested in listing all the reasons why I think these guys are dopers, that wasn't the gist of my post at all. I can pick on other countries-someone mentioned Ireland with Kelly/Roche. Ok, that fits, save for one fact-Ireland at the time could field large fields of elite riders (and did, often). This would suggest some greater possibility at producing champion cyclists.

In a country of say, 30,000 licensed racers, you have a greater possibility of producing a champion than of say, a country of maybe 100 licensed racers. This isn't controversial-is it? A related example; France has lots of pro cyclists and they have lots of bike racers-same as the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy....Switzerland has less these days, likely because there are fewer bike racers (which is true-numbers are way down compared to their peak).

Now, if we accept that numbers of racers=numbers of pros (more or less, depending on factors) in a given country, why is it unacceptable to point out that a country has produced VASTLY more pros and more champions than it's size and racing cyclist numbers would suggest? Does it mean that the ski jumper and the two other guys are definitively doping? No, of course not, but it doesn't point to something strange perhaps (lucky rolls of the cosmic dice?).

Anyway, you don't like my argument. That's ok! As a result I've tried to do a better job of communicating my thoughts on it and maybe I add something reasonable to the conversation as a result. Take care.

 

[Rackham]

The most interesting aspect IMO (& the part which gets overlooked) is the diametrically opposed career paths & origins of Pogacar & Roglic.

It makes the whole "Slovenia is a doping haven" angle all the more complicated to ascertain when neither of Slovenia's two GT champs come from the same school or background. Roglic in particular has a wild personal story & trajectory which makes him an outlier in the entire sport. Ski jumper - janitor - amateur road bike racer - turned pro late. It's a crazy story & Slovenia itself has very little to do with it.

Pogacar on the other hand I feel is a more cynical approach, i.e. a sort of robotic transformation by Gianetti of a child prodigy into a cyborg serial winner without any flaws whatsoever. Once again though what does Slovenia have to do with it? Not much, I think. It's certainly not a traditional "Soviet era" style state doping factory like we'd see in the Olympics in the 1980's, i.e. where athletes were groomed from a young age by the state itself to be PED fuelled robots. Pogacar is UAE's product, not Slovenia's.

I'm certainly not going to discount the possibility Slovenia has a completely different culture towards doping than an old cycling powerhouse like France for example (where athletes are strictly monitored), but the same accusation can be levelled at a country like Spain as well (i.e. more laissez-faire than France). Yet does Spain currently produce serial GT winners proportional to its population size? No.

 

[Netserk]

Slovakia produced one talent-Slovenia has produced 3. Slovakia is also 2.5 times larger in population than Slovenia, for what that is worth.....not much to people invested I'll reckon.

Population in itself doesn't explain much. Why did Firenze and not Milano produce the famous renaissance painters?

Sagan is not just "a" talent, he is the talent of the 2010's. While Mohoric is the only rider to win junior and U23 WCRR back-to-back (is your explanation for that Slovenian doping too?), I wouldn't put him in the same category.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Population in itself doesn't explain much. Why did Firenze and not Milano produce the famous renaissance painters?

Sagan is not just "a" talent, he is the talent of the 2010's. While Mohoric is the only rider to win junior and U23 WCRR back-to-back (is your explanation for that Slovenian doping too?), I wouldn't put him in the same category.

I agree, but before the Plague hit Firenze it was pretty much the same size as Milano. I don't know if it's a good comparison, but the rise of the rennaissance painters has to do with the patronage of the rules of the city states in the Toscana and the will to use art to demonstrate your wealth, influence and power.
I guess the best way to compare things would be to look about the number of riders in the youth ranks over various years and the developmental structures/amount of teams. Those things are easier to compare between various countries. That one also kinda explains why Italy is loosing more and more of it's status, the number of riders in the youth ranks is decreasing every year, sometimes even around 10% per year. Of course Italy no longer has the doping infrastructure that they had in the 80ies and 90ies when it comes to endurance sports, but the talent pool is also constantly shrinking.

 

[fbjim]

Apart from the other obvious problems with an argument based on nothing more than "Slovenia is small", "number of grand tour winners" is incredibly granular. One GT winner would be normal, 2 GT winners is incredibly suspicious. That's a lot of change from a difference of 1 rider!

 

[Rackham]

Can we place the current "illness" of large parts of the peloton in this category of the forum? i.e. I was literally reading about Pidcock earlier today & his mysterious illness which means his season is currently on hold & now Colbrelli has just had a major health scare in Catalunya.

Add all this on top of Paris-Nice where fewer than 60 riders finished due to illness & other problems. Now I'm not going to randomly throw around "reasons" or speculations, but we should probably admit this last month & all the sick riders (& now Colbrelli's problem) is not normal or a regular occurrence.

I mean the current "state of the peloton" is bad. Literally.

 

[Roku]

IMHO all the bronchitis and infections are Covid cases, not doping related. It does not make any sense to lose 15 days of racing, including some of your major goals for a doping tune-up (or avoiding being tested).

 

[YavorD]

Why would Slovenia has anything in common for the DEVELOPMENT as a global stars of Pog/Rog if both of them are riding for non slovenian teams? Okay, Pog had some good results as junior, but not stellar. I mean, they're current results are down to their trade teams. Both of them rather shady, but honestly I fail to mention a team I would say "They're deffo clean.."
What I find suspicious is how Slovenia tends to produce very good talents each 3 or 4 years. Going back to Brajkovic, Spilak (was seen as a good talent, I think and his results justify that), Mohoric, Roglic (yes, not a usual case, but still) and Pogacar, compered to the population and actual cycling culture. Never been there, but I guess it's not exactly Netherlands or Denmark level of cycling. Maybe indeed someone is closing his eyes on what really happens in the young riders development.

 

[GuntherL1]

Can we place the current "illness" of large parts of the peloton in this category of the forum? i.e. I was literally reading about Pidcock earlier today & his mysterious illness which means his season is currently on hold & now Colbrelli has just had a major health scare in Catalunya.

Add all this on top of Paris-Nice where fewer than 60 riders finished due to illness & other problems. Now I'm not going to randomly throw around "reasons" or speculations, but we should probably admit this last month & all the sick riders (& now Colbrelli's problem) is not normal or a regular occurrence.

I mean the current "state of the peloton" is bad. Literally.

The cause of this ill health becomes obvious when you take into account that the health of many athletes in other sports is also 'problematic'. No, it's not Covid as these health problems barely existed in 2020.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Unsure where to post this but I've been really enjoying this guys channel, a lot of doping content so it's going in the clinic.

It's a bit like if someone off here got really good at making Youtube videos.

That Peter Urgumov thing I didn't know about, check out that Mountain Time Trial result. Wild stuff!

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCygx6ccHSmccJWJ-FVmaP1A

 

[myrideissteelerthanyours]

I dislike Pog and Rog for me they are not fun and I want to believe they are on super megadope but when I look at them on tape I see smooth high cadence and wonder if maybe its not their fault just the evolution of nutrition/training + equipment and if it wasn't them it would be someone else

 

[fbjim]

If you're going all the way to guys like Spilak or Brajkovic to reach for Slovenia being "unusually" good, you might as well bring up Luxembourg producing Bob Jungels and Kevin Geniets along with the Schlecks from a population of about a half million.

Frankly a lot of this just smacks of "Real cycling nation" bias (with the UK included, per the English-speaking media). It's fine for the UK to produce Froome, Thomas, Pidcock, TGH, et al, despite not being a "traditional" cycling nation, but you gotta watch out for those weird Eastern Europeans with the funny names...

 

[Nick2413]

If you're going all the way to guys like Spilak or Brajkovic to reach for Slovenia being "unusually" good, you might as well bring up Luxembourg producing Bob Jungels and Kevin Geniets along with the Schlecks from a population of about a half million.

Frankly a lot of this just smacks of "Real cycling nation" bias (with the UK included, per the English-speaking media). It's fine for the UK to produce Froome, Thomas, Pidcock, TGH, et al, despite not being a "traditional" cycling nation, but you gotta watch out for those weird Eastern Europeans with the funny names...

I have no horse in this race and look at doping speculation purely as a source of entertainment, but technically the UK is over 30 times the population size of Slovenia. It is definitely an anomaly for one tiny country the size of Vienna to have so many stars, but I still don’t understand what people are suggesting is happening. To me it seems like a statistical anomaly and nothing else.

 

[Netserk]

I have no horse in this race and look at doping speculation purely as a source of entertainment, but technically the UK is over 30 times the population size of Slovenia. It is definitely an anomaly for one tiny country the size of Vienna to have so many stars, but I still don’t understand what people are suggesting is happening. To me it seems like a statistical anomaly and nothing else.

Same population size as Euskadi/Basque Country. Cycling is not football, it's niche enough for very small places to be hotbeds (that applies to Euskadi, not Slovenia, but the point is that it's not about population size).

My vague impression is that Slovenia is an usually sport orientated country, even more so than its neighbours.

 

[fmk_RoI]

We have just had three different Australians winning three stages back-to-back at the Volta a Catalunya. This is an anomaly. What sort of programme are the Australians on, extract of Kangaroo juice?

 

[fatissimo]

We have just had three different Australians winning three stages back-to-back at the Volta a Catalunya. This is an anomaly. What sort of programme are the Australians on, extract of Kangaroo juice?

Well, given the number of Aussie pros and the fact that they can field more than 40 elite riders at a race, it's clearly not an anomaly at all. Slovenia on the other hand, not so much. So, if you're looking for a red flag, that's probably not it. Not that you might not find others in Australia, they just don't scream at you like our tiny little nation of Slovenia.