State of the peloton 2022

[fatissimo]

Same population size as Euskadi/Basque Country. Cycling is not football, it's niche enough for very small places to be hotbeds (that applies to Euskadi, not Slovenia, but the point is that it's not about population size).

My vague impression is that Slovenia is an usually sport orientated country, even more so than its neighbours.

But not cycling oriented like the Basque Country. Sports is general, it's not cycling. Finland and Canada love ice hockey....but they don't produce much in the way of pro cyclists overall.

 

[fatissimo]

Just saw this-clearly I'm not the only one thinking something is odd.

View: https://youtu.be/pOKSn-BcB1g

 

[hrotha]

I'm not familiar with the Slovenian cycling scene, but I always thought it was rather robust? They've always had remarkably stable teams like Adria Mobil, or Perutnina before that, they have some long-running races like the Tour of Slovenia and the GP Kranj, it's been common for decades for Slovenian riders to race in Italian teams. Sure, it's not Euskadi or Flanders but it's not a backwater either.

 

[roundabout]

IIRC pretty much every top Slovenian cyclist before the current very successful group ran into doping issues one way or another. I guess Bole would be the most successful Slovenian rider from before the emergence of the current batch that did not have doping issues.

Page 31 - Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

Page 31 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

forum.cyclingnews.com

 

[Mayomaniac]

I'm not familiar with the Slovenian cycling scene, but I always thought it was rather robust? They've always had remarkably stable teams like Adria Mobil, or Perutnina before that, they have some long-running races like the Tour of Slovenia and the GP Kranj, it's been common for decades for Slovenian riders to race in Italian teams. Sure, it's not Euskadi or Flanders but it's not a backwater either.

To me Adria Mobil in the 2010s always seemed like one of those CT teams with lots of older guys who couldn't replicate the same results at PCT level, when they had to deal with the Bio-Passport. Roglic is probably one of the most credible riders to come from that team during that timeframe.

 

[hrotha]

Yeah I'm not talking about the credibility of the Slovenian cycling scene or anything like that, just about infrastructure, popularity, sustainability and what that will imply for the available talent pool in a small country.

 

[fbjim]

We have just had three different Australians winning three stages back-to-back at the Volta a Catalunya. This is an anomaly. What sort of programme are the Australians on, extract of Kangaroo juice?

Yes, but remember. They speak English, they must be good lads.

 

[SHAD0W93]

We have just had three different Australians winning three stages back-to-back at the Volta a Catalunya. This is an anomaly. What sort of programme are the Australians on, extract of Kangaroo juice?

It’s from the aggression of the kangaroo and the calmness of the koala bear.

 

[Ghirmay4Ever]

We have just had three different Australians winning three stages back-to-back at the Volta a Catalunya. This is an anomaly. What sort of programme are the Australians on, extract of Kangaroo juice?

The race lineup at Catalunya sucks though, all the aliens are on the sideline as illness sweeps through stage races.

 

[red_flanders]

I'm not familiar with the Slovenian cycling scene, but I always thought it was rather robust? They've always had remarkably stable teams like Adria Mobil, or Perutnina before that, they have some long-running races like the Tour of Slovenia and the GP Kranj, it's been common for decades for Slovenian riders to race in Italian teams. Sure, it's not Euskadi or Flanders but it's not a backwater either.

Even if it were the center of world cycling, the success of the 3 Slovenians would be a huge statistical outlier given the population. It's about 18% of tiny Belgium.

 

[ppanther92]

Is anyone here great at stats and probability? What are the chances that a country of 2.1 million produces 2 of the most dominant riders in pro cycling, at around the same time? I live in an area of 14 million, with a bigger racing scene than Slovenia and we've only produced 4 or 5 World Tour riders in 40 years. Are we just that soft? Is it genetic? Someone help me understand this. I don't tune into racing too often these days, but geez, Paris-Nice and Tirreno, dominated by two Slovenians.

That seriously makes me wonder as well. I mean, in the end a bad argument to place accusations on, I guess, but I just would love to hear the odds. In fact, using the Procyclingstats point system, this extremely small country has the #1 (Pogacar), #3 (Roglic, with WvA being #2), and #7 (Mohoric) of the best cyclists in the world. Really insane statistic.

 

[Netserk]

There's 7 Slovenian WT riders, none on ProTeams. Traknik, Mezgec and Polanc are solid WT riders, but this is all about 3 riders. Mohoric won the U23 WCRR when he was 18, and he has been a pro since then, now in his 9th season. When Mohoric became pro, Pogi was 15, Rogla had just signed for the Slovenian Continental team Adria Mobil (just two years after he changed focus from ski jumping to cycling).

The three of them are from quite different cohorts (1989, 1994, 1998), they have never ridden for the same teams (not even in Slovenia), they have developed as riders as independently as it gets. There's nothing other than the flag in common between them as riders.

Given that, what are the causal mechanism that make their nationality of import? The alternative explanation is that it's three talents on three teams that are part of the current frontier of performance in cycling.

 

[roundabout]

What's the explanation for why they are 1st, 1st and 2nd in the ranking within their teams that are 1st,2nd and 5th in the World?

 

[Netserk]

What's the explanation for why they are 1st, 1st and 2nd in the ranking within their teams that are 1st,2nd and 5th in the World?

That they all are great talents who responds well to the current regime (and that they are not on a team like Ineos that mostly buys established names, but ones that 'improves' the riders a lot). What else? The NADO? A team independent Slovenian doping ring?

None of them are super slim, I guess that is part of the difference between now and 5 years ago.

 

[fatissimo]

There's 7 Slovenian WT riders, none on ProTeams. Traknik, Mezgec and Polanc are solid WT riders, but this is all about 3 riders. Mohoric won the U23 WCRR when he was 18, and he has been a pro since then, now in his 9th season. When Mohoric became pro, Pogi was 15, Rogla had just signed for the Slovenian Continental team Adria Mobil (just two years after he changed focus from ski jumping to cycling).

The three of them are from quite different cohorts (1989, 1994, 1998), they have never ridden for the same teams (not even in Slovenia), they have developed as riders as independently as it gets. There's nothing other than the flag in common between them as riders.

Given that, what are the causal mechanism that make their nationality of import? The alternative explanation is that it's three talents on three teams that are part of the current frontier of performance in cycling.

In a country I have spent time in, the doping of several generations was all traced back to one guy. Cohort or not, they can all be part of the same ring. My original query wasn't related to the "why" though, I was really just pointing out the absurdity of such a tiny places spitting out the 3 champs at the same time (more or less). Your observation that there are 7 Slovenian WT riders backs up my own questioning. 7 WT riders in a country that fields 40 or so riders at their nationals. wtf kind of ratio is that, almost 20% of your elite riders are World Tour? If the US had that, they might have hundreds of WT riders!

 

[Ripper]

In a country I have spent time in, the doping of several generations was all traced back to one guy. Cohort or not, they can all be part of the same ring. My original query wasn't related to the "why" though, I was really just pointing out the absurdity of such a tiny places spitting out the 3 champs at the same time (more or less). Your observation that there are 7 Slovenian WT riders backs up my own questioning. 7 WT riders in a country that fields 40 or so riders at their nationals. wtf kind of ratio is that, almost 20% of your elite riders are World Tour? If the US had that, they might have hundreds of WT riders!

Hi all, here's a slightly different take on it, just to stoke some thoughts. I have no idea about the Slovenian situation and as I have pointed out, there's more at play wrt some teams that are as dodgy as you can get.

So, most folks know I live in Canada. Remember when Canada had a simply amazing, world beating group of MTB racers (some who also kicked ass on the road)? We were punching above our weight, at least when you think of world class cycling nations, and it was fantastic, right ........ And yes, there were arguments that while Canada was not a nation with the same volume of road racing, we had a strong MTB scene (which was and is true, but still).

Well, we eventually all learned more about what drove some of those performances. Some was perhaps better known locally, but not all. So while I am not saying this is directly comparable, there is evidence of other nations where all of a sudden, statistically speaking, it does not completely make sense.

Or, whatever

 

[hulkgogan]

Hi all, here's a slightly different take on it, just to stoke some thoughts. I have no idea about the Slovenian situation and as I have pointed out, there's more at play wrt some teams that are as dodgy as you can get.

So, most folks know I live in Canada. Remember when Canada had a simply amazing, world beating group of MTB racers (some who also kicked ass on the road)? We were punching above our weight, at least when you think of world class cycling nations, and it was fantastic, right ........ And yes, there were arguments that while Canada was not a nation with the same volume of road racing, we had a strong MTB scene (which was and is true, but still).

Well, we eventually all learned more about what drove some of those performances. Some was perhaps better known locally, but not all. So while I am not saying this is directly comparable, there is evidence of other nations where all of a sudden, statistically speaking, it does not completely make sense.

Or, whatever

Let me see, Green, McGrath, Hesjedal, Sheppard, the Victoria mafia. Molday, I've heard conflicting stories about him and Hestler is suspect given he wasn't much better than national level then suddenly finished 13th in the 97 World Champs as a heavy rider.

Apparently Kabush wouldn't train with them in the winter as it did his head in.

 

[Scarponi]

What’s with all the 1-2s from same teams this year, surely the most by March ever loo

 

[Scarponi]

We have just had three different Australians winning three stages back-to-back at the Volta a Catalunya. This is an anomaly. What sort of programme are the Australians on, extract of Kangaroo juice?

I legit eat kangaroo meat twice a week lol. Good source of protein

 

[fbjim]

you can point out it's an outlier over and over again, the problem is that without any specific evidence of an actual doping ring, coincidences and statistical outliers simply happen, and you can't really go further than that.

 

[Black Betsy]

Yeah I'm not talking about the credibility of the Slovenian cycling scene or anything like that, just about infrastructure, popularity, sustainability and what that will imply for the available talent pool in a small country.

Missing my dearly beloved Kellys bike

 

[fatissimo]

Hi all, here's a slightly different take on it, just to stoke some thoughts. I have no idea about the Slovenian situation and as I have pointed out, there's more at play wrt some teams that are as dodgy as you can get.

So, most folks know I live in Canada. Remember when Canada had a simply amazing, world beating group of MTB racers (some who also kicked ass on the road)? We were punching above our weight, at least when you think of world class cycling nations, and it was fantastic, right ........ And yes, there were arguments that while Canada was not a nation with the same volume of road racing, we had a strong MTB scene (which was and is true, but still).

Well, we eventually all learned more about what drove some of those performances. Some was perhaps better known locally, but not all. So while I am not saying this is directly comparable, there is evidence of other nations where all of a sudden, statistically speaking, it does not completely make sense.

Or, whatever

Absolutely, this is

you can point out it's an outlier over and over again, the problem is that without any specific evidence of an actual doping ring, coincidences and statistical outliers simply happen, and you can't really go further than that.

No one is suggesting statistics will provide the smoking gun. What they can provide though, is another window for the critical observer to consider the state of cycling. That's all.

 

[TMJ]

Something incredible is clearly happening.
We will probably never learn the real details, but whatever it is I bet it would stun even the most hardened cynics.

 

[Red Rick]

Apart from nationality, nothing ties these 3 riders together. However they do ride on 3 of the most overperforming teams in the sport.

Also I would bet Mohoric doesnt even break the top 30 for pure wattspushers

 

[XlandaluzeX]

you can point out it's an outlier over and over again, the problem is that without any specific evidence of an actual doping ring, coincidences and statistical outliers simply happen, and you can't really go further than that.

Probability only tells you how likely it is for it to be accidental/aleatory effect. If its extremely unlikely, it suggest you are missing on some "hidden" variable or variables with explanatory power and failed to include them in your model. Could be climate, geography, popularity of the sport, local federation pumping money, good coaches, better equipment, better teammates, good agents or whatever, that explain this overrepresentation at the top. In mature professional sports most these factors are pretty even and its usually doping

when there is an statistical anomaly, theres a cause for it, the whole data science field is based on this assumption