Strade Bianche 2026, March 7, one-day race

[canina82]

Perfect if you want a climber to win… you wouldn’t see WVA or MVDP win if Pogacar wasn’t riding it

They wouldn't also in the old route against current Pogacar. That's my point.
BTW I'm pretty sure MVP can win without Pogacar in the race. 2024 WC was harder and MVP was probably the strongest behind Pogacar.

 

[Berniece]

They wouldn't also in the old route against current Pogacar. That's my point.
BTW I'm pretty sure MVP can win without Pogacar in the race. 2024 WC was harder and MVP was probably the strongest behind Pogacar.

MVDP trained specifically for that WC, and lost a lot of weight.

 

[AmRacer]

MVDP trained specifically for that WC, and lost a lot of weight.

Shocking

 

[KoopaCycling]

Strade Bianchi, a race I used to look forward to. Now i'm only interested to see how Del Toro & Seixas will fare (against each other). I'm not that interested in the Pogacar show. At least in the Ardennes you get a feeling there is a small chance.

In Strade Bianchi all that needs to happen is for Pogacar to not crash. If i watch it will be on the background whilst mostly doing something else.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Strade Bianchi, a race I used to look forward to. Now i'm only interested to see how Del Toro & Seixas will fare (against each other). I'm not that interested in the Pogacar show. At least in the Ardennes you get a feeling there is a small chance.

In Strade Bianchi all that needs to happen is for Pogacar to not crash. If i watch it will be on the background whilst mostly doing something else.

Womens race as well to enjoy.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

In Strade Bianchi all that needs to happen is for Pogacar to not crash. If i watch it will be on the background whilst mostly doing something else.

That didn't stop him last year, but it did add a little bit of suspense for a while.

 

[SafeBet]

They wouldn't also in the old route against current Pogacar. That's my point.
BTW I'm pretty sure MVP can win without Pogacar in the race. 2024 WC was harder and MVP was probably the strongest behind Pogacar.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2029136482812743945

View: https://x.com/directvelo/status/2029136482812743945?s=20

 

[Devil's Elbow]

MSR is very exciting due to Pogacar

False. Up until 2016 the race kind of sucked, but every edition from 2017 onwards was already very dynamic, and in fact Pogacar's first four attempts were all in the same vein as the editions in that period he didn't take part in.

That being said, Pogacar is arguably needed right now to give Alpecin a challenge.

 

[Berniece]

False. Up until 2016 the race kind of sucked, but every edition from 2017 onwards was already very dynamic, and in fact Pogacar's first four attempts were all in the same vein as the editions in that period he didn't take part in.

That being said, Pogacar is arguably needed right now to give Alpecin a challenge.

I'm not sure we would've seen Alpecin winning 3 times in a row without Pogacar.

 

[Cycling111]

I'm not sure we would've seen Alpecin winning 3 times in a row without Pogacar.

I think so, look at their dominance in Roubaix.Without Pogacar last year they would have finished 1-2 again in Roubaix.

 

[Cycling111]

False. Up until 2016 the race kind of sucked, but every edition from 2017 onwards was already very dynamic, and in fact Pogacar's first four attempts were all in the same vein as the editions in that period he didn't take part in.

That being said, Pogacar is arguably needed right now to give Alpecin a challenge.

Sure? I remember something different. I remember for years people complaining that Milano-San Remo was so boring that even they said the race needed La Manie because it was an incredibly easy and boring race.

Perspectives change a lot, like with the Tour de France; Sky's Tour de France seemed boring then. Those tours have more fans now than before...

I've been hearing for years that Milan-San Remo was the most boring race of the year. It was a race with zero expectation; it was only talked about during race week.

There is no denying that there is now much more anticipation to see how Pogacar can win than before, when it was possibly the most criticized race of the year.

 

[Berniece]

I think so, look at their dominance in Roubaix.Without Pogacar last year they would have finished 1-2 again in Roubaix.

That’s a completely different race where their two riders are always top 5 contenders. That’s not the case in MSR. First of all, Alpecin doesn’t have the team to launch MVDP like UAE launches Pogacar, not for Cipressa and not for Poggio. So I doubt MVDP is able to attack like Pogacar does, and I don’t think he could drop everyone. So if MVDP goes to the finish line it might be with a smaller group.

If that group gets taken by the next group which contains Philipsen, there are also other sprinters there.

Basically what I’m saying is that UAE makes the race so hard, that plays into the cards of Alpecin. If they didn’t make the race that hard there would be more contenders to take the win.

 

[Cycling111]

That’s a completely different race where their two riders are always top 5 contenders. That’s not the case in MSR. First of all, Alpecin doesn’t have the team to launch MVDP like UAE launches Pogacar, not for Cipressa and not for Poggio. So I doubt MVDP is able to attack like Pogacar does, and I don’t think he could drop everyone. So if MVDP goes to the finish line it might be with a smaller group.

If that group gets taken by the next group which contains Philipsen, there are also other sprinters there.

Basically what I’m saying is that UAE makes the race so hard, that plays into the cards of Alpecin. If they didn’t make the race that hard there would be more contenders to take the win.

Yes, it's a different race, but Alpecin has the two top favorites for two different races. VDP is the favorite on a tougher race, and Phlipsen gets over the Poggio better than other sprinters like Milan or Merlier.

 

[AlfaLum]

I expect an easy win from Pogacar again. Del Toro, Pidcock and Seixas to fight for the other three podium spots seems most likely, allthough Seixas is an unknown quantity in this type of races.

Also expect Albert Withen Philipsen to fully get back on everybody's radar with a very good performance.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I'm not sure we would've seen Alpecin winning 3 times in a row without Pogacar.

That’s a completely different race where their two riders are always top 5 contenders. That’s not the case in MSR. First of all, Alpecin doesn’t have the team to launch MVDP like UAE launches Pogacar, not for Cipressa and not for Poggio. So I doubt MVDP is able to attack like Pogacar does, and I don’t think he could drop everyone. So if MVDP goes to the finish line it might be with a smaller group.

If that group gets taken by the next group which contains Philipsen, there are also other sprinters there.

Basically what I’m saying is that UAE makes the race so hard, that plays into the cards of Alpecin. If they didn’t make the race that hard there would be more contenders to take the win.

The alternative viewpoint is that when UAE didn't manage to make the race very hard in 2024, Van der Poel had a pretty easy time controlling things for Philipsen, all things considered. So there's definitely a good case that Pogacar makes the race harder for Alpecin. I don't really have a strong viewpoint either way because the Alpecin dominance has only lasted for three years and we haven't seen the full range of plausible UAE strategies yet.

 

[Berniece]

The alternative viewpoint is that when UAE didn't manage to make the race very hard in 2024, Van der Poel had a pretty easy time controlling things for Philipsen, all things considered. So there's definitely a good case that Pogacar makes the race harder for Alpecin. I don't really have a strong viewpoint either way because the Alpecin dominance has only lasted for three years and we haven't seen the full range of plausible UAE strategies yet.

That's true, but my assumption is that Philipsen isn't by default the best rider in that group. Now that you have Brennan, or the Pedersen from 2025 might have won that sprint in 2024.

 

[jono]

That didn't stop him last year, but it did add a little bit of suspense for a while.

His slide path after crash was maybe half a meter from ending his season, or possibly worse. Such a lucky boy.

 

[Squire]

Perspectives change a lot, like with the Tour de France; Sky's Tour de France seemed boring then. Those tours have more fans now than before...

Do they? 2012 to 2018 Tours de France were quite dreadful, and I haven't really seen much revisionism about that? In contrast, 2019-2023 were pretty great.

Not loving Strade Bianche lately. Seems easier to just brute force it now with the increased vertical metres since 2024. Or it's just that the main brute-forcer has become unbeatable. A touch under 3000 vertical metres seemed to produce really nice and close races usually, instead of the one-minute gaps between single riders or small groups in the top 10 we've seen in recent years.

 

[canina82]

Basically, MVP doesn't show up because he thinks he will lose against Pogacar and Pidcock.

“If you run into Pidcock or Pogacar at 100% it would be very hard” – Roodhooft explains why Mathieu van der Poel avoids Strade Bianche showdown

Mathieu van der Poel will not return to Strade Bianche in 2026, despite having won the race in spectacular fashion just five years ago. The Dutchman’s absence from the Tuscan gravel Classic has again...

cyclinguptodate.com

 

[Devil's Elbow]

or the Pedersen from 2025 might have won that sprint in 2024.

Yeah, no. The one thing Pedersen absolutely hasn't improved at as his classics results have gotten better is his sprint speed.

 

[canina82]

False. Up until 2016 the race kind of sucked, but every edition from 2017 onwards was already very dynamic, and in fact Pogacar's first four attempts were all in the same vein as the editions in that period he didn't take part in.

That being said, Pogacar is arguably needed right now to give Alpecin a challenge.

I can't agree with you. The race was only dynamic in the last 15 minutes (before the Poggio), even Cipressa was known as the most overrated climb in the world because nothing happened there despite being close to the finish.
Normally, unpredictability (we don't know who will win) is the reason to defend MSR but this is a weak argument IMO. FW has been horrible for years and this year we will probably have one of the most open races this year because I can see more than 10 riders able to win it. Is the route okay? I don't think so. I think MSR is heavily influenced by Pogacar and he just masks how bad is the route.

Sprint classics/stages (TdF for example) are very unpredictable nowadays but are they exciting? I don't think so.
If we decided to invite people who don't follow cycling to watch MSR, would they be entertained by 15' of good racing in 6h? Again, I don't think so. Every other monument is unlocked in the last hour. In MSR, top riders are still riding at 150 watts with 40 km to the finish.

This is just my opinion and how I see cycling.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I can't agree with you. The race was only dynamic in the last 15 minutes (before the Poggio), even Cipressa was known as the most overrated climb in the world because nothing happened there despite being close to the finish.

And when the Cipressa is raced like last year, there are precisely two plausible scenarios:

1. Pogacar drops Van der Poel and solos to the finish
2. Pogacar doesn't drop Van der Poel and loses the ensuing sprint, just like last year

It was really cool to see the Cipressa define the race for the first time in my lifetime, but it objectively makes the race less dynamic if that becomes the new norm, because there are a bajillion different ways the 2017-2024 norm can play out (and it did in fact play out quite differently every single year except maybe 2017 and 2020). The main argument for 2017-2024 is not unpredictability in the winner, it's unpredictability in the way the race is won. And the final 15 minutes of Sanremo did a better job at that than any other race in the world in the 2017-2024 meta (and that is obviously completely different from a sprint race, which you are conveniently ignoring).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I've been hearing for years that Milan-San Remo was the most boring race of the year. It was a race with zero expectation; it was only talked about during race week.

There is no denying that there is now much more anticipation to see how Pogacar can win than before, when it was possibly the most criticized race of the year.

The vast majority of anticipation for this Sanremo is coming either from Pogacar fans, or from the cycling media who have a commercial interest in hyping literally everything up. I think this take suggests you're a little bit too much in a bubble, tbh.

 

[Red Rick]

The vast majority of anticipation for this Sanremo is coming either from Pogacar fans, or from the cycling media who have a commercial interest in hyping literally everything up. I think this take suggests you're a little bit too much in a bubble, tbh.

Hey now, Sanremo is already over for some Pogacar fans because Narvaez and Wellens are out

 

[Sciatic]

The vast majority of anticipation for this Sanremo is coming either from Pogacar fans, or from the cycling media who have a commercial interest in hyping literally everything up. I think this take suggests you're a little bit too much in a bubble, tbh.

I don’t know how you define “the vast majority” but there are plenty of plain ole’ cycling fans like myself who look forward with anticipation to MSR. It’s the 1st monument of the year, and always an interesting cast of characters.