I have been following msr for more than a decade now, and I remember watching sagan trying and fail to win this race being the favourite almost every year. The reason why sagan never won and vdp has won twice is pogacar, I believe nobody could argue with that. If vdp had the entire peloton looking at him (like sagan had) he could not win msr, simply because if he had to initiate an attack on poggio himself (with everybody on his wheel and not after pog has attacked) he could not drop everybody, the group contesting the win would be inevitably be much larger and the likes of matthews, philipsen, even kooij in the near future would beat him. The only way in which he could win would be with an attack like stuyven but being the favourite he would be too marked for that