Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Arvid Falk]

People shouldn't apply cycling's logic to Pogi. He would be destroyed in 2022 RVV too. The same boring story. People are always underestimating all the time because he is a climber and a climber can't win gravel races, cobbled races, etc.

What doesn't mean to underestimate Pog in PR? To say he is not the top favorite? Most post I've read says he is one of the contenders behind the favorite MVDP. Is that to underestimate him?

 

[Red Rick]

I could count on one hand the number of times a big leader has sacrificed their own position in a major race while fully fit in the last 10 years.

WVA - Gifted GW to Laporte in a 2 up break
MVDP - Worked for Philipsen in the final of MSR 2024
Pogacar - stayed with McNulty in 2021 Itzulia final stage when McNulty cracked and the race sailed off up the road.

It is very hard to take your comment seriously when you limit that commentary to a single rider.

I would actually add Landa in the 2015 Giro and Quitnana in the 2015 Tour, tho arguably they weren't the leaders

Also Nibali took out Aru's greatest competitor for the 2015 Vuelta.

 

[Berniece]

I could count on one hand the number of times a big leader has sacrificed their own position in a major race while fully fit in the last 10 years.

WVA - Gifted GW to Laporte in a 2 up break
MVDP - Worked for Philipsen in the final of MSR 2024
Pogacar - stayed with McNulty in 2021 Itzulia final stage when McNulty cracked and the race sailed off up the road.

It is very hard to take your comment seriously when you limit that commentary to a single rider.

I’m not saying Pogi should sacrifice his own position, I’m saying everyone else of the team will.

 

[Salvarani]

People shouldn't apply cycling's logic to Pogi. He would be destroyed in 2022 RVV too. The same boring story. People are always underestimating all the time because he is a climber and a climber can't win gravel races, cobbled races, etc.

Agreed. Just the same old hoopla going on atm.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

Strade is a lot more climber friendly than any of the 3 missing monuments.

I really can't see how Pogacar will be a bigger threat to VdP than Van Aert.

He is human in hilly races with Van Aert or Van Der Poel in them. They kinda neutralize his attacks because they are just as powerful if not better when it comes to short efforts.

Most likely scenario for a Pog win?

The cobbles specialists unsuccessfully try to drop him on Kwaremont. He stays with a handful of the strongest riders.

Pog drops them on Paterberg and time trials all the way to the finish. The chasers behind him is too tired and selfish to cooperate.

VDP rode a smart race.

But Pogacar made him look normal. Unreal how Pogacar can just keep going

Some quotes to show how Pogacar was underrated (and still is). The last quote is a MVP's diehard fan (nothing wrong with that. I'm a Pogi fanboy too) a little bit a little bit shocked about Pogi's level.

 

[Froome]

Why not ? I am not a big of a fan but i respect him for what he said. Pogacar is the greatest of all time even Stevie Wonder would see that.

I will teach you a bit of history.

The greatest of all time when he was 26 years old, already had:

5 MSR
2 PR

Races pogacar never won.

He also had when he was 26 years old, 3 Giros and 4 Tours de France.

I think is time to stop this no sense delusional thing about this guy being the greatest of all time.
Just because he is your favourite ride, doesn't mean he is the greatest of all time.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I'm not mocking those who wrote these posts (I already wrote very silly posts). I'm just showing how people underestimate Pogacar's level.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I HATE the perspective that people take towards Roubaix this year. I know it‘s in fashion to pretend that Wout Van Aert is absolutely useless and suddenly washed but I would be very surprised if Pogačar could drop him out of the wheel. Most importantly, though, I don‘t see a way to win for him unless Mathieu Van der Poel punctures. So UAE would actually need to… I don‘t know… use their brain and send riders up the road. Pogačar needs to have Politt or Florian Vermeersch up the road and then wheelsuck. Hopefully the other teams also figure out that having riders up the road gives you a better chance of winning than praying for the Van der Poel mechanical. Otherwise we will only get to watch Pogačar, Van der Poel and maybe Van Aert ride around like three thermonuclear donkeys and Pogačar and probably Van Aert will look stupid in the end.

 

[Froome]

Obrigado!

Let's see Pog stomping VDP next week.

And it can't have any excuses from VDP part.

He is saying: this is the best form of my life.

So it will be even more delicious.

That's what you want to happen joao, doesn't mean things will happen like you want.

Desejos são diferentes da realidade.

 

[Brullnux]

I think people are grossly underestimating Pog's chances in Roubaix, partially because Roubaix itself is grossly overrated - especialyl the whole 'hell in the north' marketing angle which makes it look like The Hunger Games or something. Then there's Rob Hatch screaming about the Arenberg Trench like it's 1916 all over again. The whole 'danger imminent' thing about Roubaix is part of the hype machine. Sure it's a dangerous race but most cycling races are these days.

Point being: Pog is a good bike handler and has proven he can ride cobbles well. He'll be there or thereabouts the win. And VdP isn't invincible either. He's been beaten in two man sprints after a hard race before.

This is silly. Roubaix has by far and away the hardest cobbled sectors of any race on the calendar. Pogacar can ride cobbles 'well', but not as well as any specialist or XC/MTB guy. Pogacar is obviously a monster, but he just lacks experience on the cobbles. Flanders' cobbles are both much easier and uphill; Roubaix is much trickier and flat as a pancake. I'll be extremely surprised if Pogacar is able to follow MvdP throughout at the first time or asking – realistically, he'll be in the second group on the road fighting for a podium. I just don't get why people are underestimating the technical skills required to corner in Roubaix, do we not remember Ganna in 2023? Sure, Ganna is worse at this, but he lost an obscene amount of time and effort on the cobbles.

 

[Peyroteo94]

What doesn't mean to underestimate Pog in PR? To say he is not the top favorite? Most post I've read says he is one of the contenders behind the favorite MVDP. Is that to underestimate him?

Go 1 month earlier in this thread and you will find people saying he will be destroyed by MVP and he doesn't stand a chance.

 

[hayneplane]

I would actually add Landa in the 2015 Giro and Quitnana in the 2015 Tour, tho arguably they weren't the leaders

Also Nibali took out Aru's greatest competitor for the 2015 Vuelta.

Landa was held back by the team is something I think virtually the whole forum will agree on. The Vuelta one was very special circumstances where they were miles clear of the next best rider from another team so could play around with victory certain.

The one day race examples are more important precedents as less time for team/DS/riders to confer and make decisions.

 

[Salvarani]

It is awesome that Pog is just the GOAT

Great time to be a cycling fan

 

[Brullnux]

Go 1 month earlier in this thread and you will find people saying he will be destroyed by MVP and he doesn't stand a chance.

It will look more like Glasgow than 2023 Ronde.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Landa was held back by the team is something I think virtually the whole forum will agree on. The Vuelta one was very special circumstances where they were miles clear of the next best rider from another team so could play around with victory certain.

The one day race examples are more important precedents as less time for team/DS/riders to confer and make decisions.

Even if he wasn't held back, he wouldn't win the Giro.

 

[hayneplane]

It wasn't an active choice to end up behind the split on the descent.

It was an active choice not to attack out of the group he was left in

 

[Netserk]

It was an active choice not to attack out of the group he was left in

Huh? He went on the next climb after the split. Only Vingegaard and Yates could follow him.

 

[hayneplane]

Even if he wasn't held back, he wouldn't win the Giro.

Contador still would but Landa was stronger than Aru and if their nationality was reversed I bet the pecking order would have been different.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This is silly. Roubaix has by far and away the hardest cobbled sectors of any race on the calendar. Pogacar can ride cobbles 'well', but not as well as any specialist or XC/MTB guy. Pogacar is obviously a monster, but he just lacks experience on the cobbles. Flanders' cobbles are both much easier and uphill; Roubaix is much trickier and flat as a pancake. I'll be extremely surprised if Pogacar is able to follow MvdP throughout at the first time or asking – realistically, he'll be in the second group on the road fighting for a podium. I just don't get why people are underestimating the technical skills required to corner in Roubaix, do we not remember Ganna in 2023? Sure, Ganna is worse at this, but he lost an obscene amount of time and effort on the cobbles.

But Pogacar is very underrated when we talk about bike handling.

 

[Brullnux]

But Pogacar is very underrated when we talk about bike handling.

True, not like he crashed two weeks ago trying to push the pace on a simple descent

 

[QueenStagiaire]

True, not like he crashed two weeks ago trying to push the pace on a simple descent

Three weeks ago, point still stands though.

 

[Peyroteo94]

True, not like he crashed two weeks ago trying to push the pace on a simple descent

Just like MVP crashed in Glasgow while leading the race... what is exactly your point?

 

[Arvid Falk]

If it's dry I think Pog will be fine bike handling wise. If wet I could see more problems especially against someone like MVDP who just stormed over cobbles even in the wet edition taking a second in every corner.

 

[Brullnux]

It's sort of besides the poin, though, because I don't think being an above average bike handler translates perfectly onto Roubaix cobble skills. Nibali was a better bike handler than Pogacar, but still needed to follow Fuglsang (mtb) on these types of cobbles.

Generally speaking (and this is a generalisation) you need that XC/MTB background to be able to cope with specialists the first time you do this race (like Pidcock). Experience here matters, and I don't think Pogacar won't ever win Paris-Roubaix, I just think he doesn't have much of a chance first time round. All it takes is for Pogacar to lose the wheel round one corner on Mons en Pevele or the Carrefour and the elastic is broken and he loses.

 

[Shortcut]

I HATE the perspective that people take towards Roubaix this year. I know it‘s in fashion to pretend that Wout Van Aert is absolutely useless and suddenly washed but I would be very surprised if Pogačar could drop him out of the wheel. Most importantly, though, I don‘t see a way to win for him unless Mathieu Van der Poel punctures. So UAE would actually need to… I don‘t know… use their brain and send riders up the road. Pogačar needs to have Politt or Florian Vermeersch up the road and then wheelsuck. Hopefully the other teams also figure out that having riders up the road gives you a better chance of winning than praying for the Van der Poel mechanical. Otherwise we will only get to watch Pogačar, Van der Poel and maybe Van Aert ride around like three thermonuclear donkeys and Pogačar and probably Van Aert will look stupid in the end.

Why haven’t they tried this at E3? Because cycling doesn’t work the same way it used to since Pogacar, MvDP, and, in some situations, Remco have taken over one-day races. Simply put, 50–80 km from the finish, the peloton is no longer capable of keeping up with solo attacks from these three, even when there are 30 riders together. Even if Politt or Wellens managed to break away (which they wouldn’t be allowed to), MvDP would still easily catch them.
Pogacar’s advantage on the cobbles isn’t so much about bike handling as it is about positioning, where he is probably the best in the world. The only time he misjudged his positioning was at this year’s MSR. The idea that he would look foolish if he got dropped by MvDP at the finish while still ending up on the podium just proves how different the standards are for him (which is normal when discussing the GOAT). If MvDP were the one getting dropped by Pogacar on the final climb at Il Lombardia, everyone would be singing his praises.