Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Brullnux]

It's sort of besides the poin, though, because I don't think being an above average bike handler translates perfectly onto Roubaix cobble skills. Nibali was a better bike handler than Pogacar, but still needed to follow Fuglsang (mtb) on these types of cobbles.

Generally speaking (and this is a generalisation) you need that XC/MTB background to be able to cope with specialists the first time you do this race (like Pidcock). Experience here matters, and I don't think Pogacar won't ever win Paris-Roubaix, I just think he doesn't have much of a chance first time round. All it takes is for Pogacar to lose the wheel round one corner on Mons en Pevele or the Carrefour and the elastic is broken and he loses.

 

[Shortcut]

I HATE the perspective that people take towards Roubaix this year. I know it‘s in fashion to pretend that Wout Van Aert is absolutely useless and suddenly washed but I would be very surprised if Pogačar could drop him out of the wheel. Most importantly, though, I don‘t see a way to win for him unless Mathieu Van der Poel punctures. So UAE would actually need to… I don‘t know… use their brain and send riders up the road. Pogačar needs to have Politt or Florian Vermeersch up the road and then wheelsuck. Hopefully the other teams also figure out that having riders up the road gives you a better chance of winning than praying for the Van der Poel mechanical. Otherwise we will only get to watch Pogačar, Van der Poel and maybe Van Aert ride around like three thermonuclear donkeys and Pogačar and probably Van Aert will look stupid in the end.

Why haven’t they tried this at E3? Because cycling doesn’t work the same way it used to since Pogacar, MvDP, and, in some situations, Remco have taken over one-day races. Simply put, 50–80 km from the finish, the peloton is no longer capable of keeping up with solo attacks from these three, even when there are 30 riders together. Even if Politt or Wellens managed to break away (which they wouldn’t be allowed to), MvDP would still easily catch them.
Pogacar’s advantage on the cobbles isn’t so much about bike handling as it is about positioning, where he is probably the best in the world. The only time he misjudged his positioning was at this year’s MSR. The idea that he would look foolish if he got dropped by MvDP at the finish while still ending up on the podium just proves how different the standards are for him (which is normal when discussing the GOAT). If MvDP were the one getting dropped by Pogacar on the final climb at Il Lombardia, everyone would be singing his praises.

 

[Shortcut]

If it's dry I think Pog will be fine bike handling wise. If wet I could see more problems especially against someone like MVDP who just stormed over cobbles even in the wet edition taking a second in every corner.

After cobbles if MvDP is about 10-20 second in front of Pogacar, i can still see Pogacar catching him. He has more engine than Mads, Ganna and similar type of rider and he is also better TT rider than MvDP. He broke MvDP on Kwaremont but had only 10sec on top of it, after that he gained 20 seconds more in last 17km (he practically stopped last 1 km).

 

[Froome]

After cobbles if MvDP is about 10-20 second in front of Pogacar, i can still see Pogacar catching him. He has more engine than Mads, Ganna and similar type of rider and he is also better TT rider than MvDP. He broke MvDP on Kwaremont but had only 10sec on top of it, after that he gained 20 seconds more in last 17km (he practically stopped last 1 km).

The thing is, van der poel doesn't need to drop pogacar to win those races, because he can always beat him in the sprint.

 

[Arvid Falk]

Pog surely wants to win PR this year, but I also think it's about gaining experience and learning to ride the race. To better understand what he needs to do to one day win the race. Just like MSR and RVV. First year in RVV he did great and realized that Kwaremont is absolutely crucial for him to win the race. He sensed a weakness in MVDP on the climb and exploited it the next year. In MSR the strategy has changed, can't win by attacking on Poggio, needs to attack already on Cipressa with a strong leadout. Didn't really work out but not far from.

 

[Arvid Falk]

After cobbles if MvDP is about 10-20 second in front of Pogacar, i can still see Pogacar catching him. He has more engine than Mads, Ganna and similar type of rider and he is also better TT rider than MvDP. He broke MvDP on Kwaremont but had only 10sec on top of it, after that he gained 20 seconds more in last 17km (he practically stopped last 1 km).

Maybe there is something to it but I think the sample size is to smal to draw a definate conclusion. MVDP gained over a minute on three chasers in Worlds when he won.

RVV is more climbing than in PR and I think that fatigues MVDP a little bit more than Pog. PR is different.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pog surely wants to win PR this year, but I also think it's about gaining experience and learning to ride the race. To better understand what he needs to do to one day win the race. Just like MSR and RVV. First year in RVV he did great and realized that Kwaremont is absolutely crucial for him to win the race. He sensed a weakness in MVDP on the climb and exploited it the next year. In MSR the strategy has changed, can't win by attacking on Poggio, needs to attack already on Cipressa with a strong leadout. Didn't really work out but not far from.

I agree with you. He is there to win but also to learn. Maybe in 2/3 years he will have what it takes to win PR.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Maybe there is something to it but I think the sample size is to smal to draw a definate conclusion. MVDP gained over a minute on three chasers in Worlds when he won.

RVV is more climbing than in PR and I think that fatigues MVDP a little bit more than Pog. PR is different.

PR is what Pogacar loves. Zone 2 riding for 5 hours (by his own words).

 

[Shortcut]

The thing is, van der poel doesn't need to drop pogacar to win those races, because he can always beat him in the sprint.

You said he would look stupid if he losses against MvDP (best suited rider for P-R ever)in the sprint.. i don't believe he can win this year, but if he manages to come in TOP 5 would be amazing.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Why haven’t they tried this at E3? Because cycling doesn’t work the same way it used to since Pogacar, MvDP, and, in some situations, Remco have taken over one-day races. Simply put, 50–80 km from the finish, the peloton is no longer capable of keeping up with solo attacks from these three, even when there are 30 riders together. Even if Politt or Wellens managed to break away (which they wouldn’t be allowed to), MvDP would still easily catch them.
Pogacar’s advantage on the cobbles isn’t so much about bike handling as it is about positioning, where he is probably the best in the world. The only time he misjudged his positioning was at this year’s MSR. The idea that he would look foolish if he got dropped by MvDP at the finish while still ending up on the podium just proves how different the standards are for him (which is normal when discussing the GOAT). If MvDP were the one getting dropped by Pogacar on the final climb at Il Lombardia, everyone would be singing his praises.

Let‘s say there‘s a somewhat cooperative group with a strong UAE guy (and possibly a weaker Alpecin guy) in front and Van der Poel is a minute behind. That race situation is of course unlikely, but not impossible. Of course Van der Poel can close that gap, but we‘ve seen before that being ahead in Roubaix is a huge advantage, for example in 2016 when Hayman won because he spent less energy than the chasers, 2021 when Moscon only lost his advantage due to punctures or in 2022 when Van Baarle crushed the top stars who were caught behind in the early echelons. Of course this is not possible in 2025 with the current power differences, but if Pogačar (who has mutant strength) can follow Van der Poel and make him do way more of that difficult chase work, he can try to use that energy advantage later on. If Pogačar matches MvdP pull for pull for the entire race, I don‘t see him winning on pure force.

 

[Shortcut]

Let‘s say there‘s a somewhat cooperative group with a strong UAE guy (and possibly a weaker Alpecin guy) in front and Van der Poel is a minute behind. That race situation is of course unlikely, but not impossible. Of course Van der Poel can close that gap, but we‘ve seen before that being ahead in Roubaix is a huge advantage, for example in 2016 when Hayman won because he spent less energy than the chasers, 2021 when Moscon only lost his advantage due to punctures or in 2022 when Van Baarle crushed the top stars who were caught behind in the early echelons. Of course this is not possible in 2025 with the current power differences, but if Pogačar (who has mutant strength) can follow Van der Poel and make him do way more of that difficult chase work, he can try to use that energy advantage later on. If Pogačar matches MvdP pull for pull for the entire race, I don‘t see him winning on pure force.

I get your point, but those UAE guys are just not something to worry about for MvDP. I hope VWA can find some legs for P-R because that would be good for Pogacar and not so much for MvDP. Wout and Pogi just not pulling with MvDP ang catching him together as TT team outside cobbles would be great. Also MvDP couldn't just wait for finish.

 

[JoãoRamos]

That's what you want to happen joao, doesn't mean things will happen like you want.

Desejos são diferentes da realidade.

I know. But once again, in 2023, nobody believed he could smoke VDP.

And the rest is history.

Comparing Pog today with his 2023 version, I would be very worried if I was VDP.

It will be total carnage. Let's see who is right.

 

[Froome]

You said he would look stupid if he losses against MvDP (best suited rider for P-R ever)in the sprint.. i don't believe he can win this year, but if he manages to come in TOP 5 would be amazing.

I didn't said he would look stupid if he loses in the sprint against van der poel, van der poel sprint is just stronger, so he can play with that.

Top 5 would be a great result, and he can do it.

 

[Froome]

I know. But once again, in 2023, nobody believed he could smoke VDP.

And the rest is history.

Comparing Pog today with his 2023 version, I would be very worried if I was VDP.

It will be total carnage. Let's see who is right.

Bot of them are better today than they were in 2023, just like the other top riders.

Van der poel also had some back issues in the past.

 

[JoãoRamos]

Bot of them are better today than they were in 2023, just like the other top riders.

Van der poel also had some back issues in the past.

Yes, VDP also can be better than his 2023 version.

But honestly, imho, I think the Pog's leap was higher than VDP.

Just take a look at his last year, by many people the greatest season of all time (triple crown + 2 monuments + strade).

And judging by 2025 MSR (I know Pog lost, but he changed the entire dynamic of the race), his form is awesome.

Hopefully, no crashes, no punctures, nothing on next Sunday. And let's enjoy a great race.
I expect a brutal one, with a lot of dead bodies after 220 km. Let's wait and see.

 

[JoãoRamos]

If it's dry I think Pog will be fine bike handling wise. If wet I could see more problems especially against someone like MVDP who just stormed over cobbles even in the wet edition taking a second in every corner.

Totally agree. Pog needs a sunny day to increase his chances.

 

[scribers]

MVP started to rebuild his body for climbing races such as LBL and Worlds last season before supposedly abandoning the project. But I think it’s paid dividends on his typical terrain when up against pogi and the field generally.

 

[Extinction]

Like I said earlier: so is Pat for example. But I don't mind him. RdV just never, ever shows any respect to riders that raced after him. He only tries to downtalk their performance.
You never see Merckx or Hinault or whoever talk like that. It's not a generational thing: he's just a ***.

In fact, I said it was his generation. I remember when Merckx belittled Lemond for not winning classics as he did, with a caustic appraisal of his "lack of integrity." Evidently Merckx felt the need to air his grievances publicly. It's just hard talk. I don't mind it, because it adds flavor to a usually insipid soup of rather formulaic niceties. At least RdV is consistenty sour, which is entertaining, at least to me.

 

[JoãoRamos]

MVP started to rebuild his body for climbing races such as LBL and Worlds last season before supposedly abandoning the project. But I think it’s paid dividends on his typical terrain when up against pogi and the field generally.

I don't know if I can believe. MSR 2025 is a very small sample.

First, VDP only goes for the races he knows he will dominate.

Why doesn't he race LBL? Lombardia?

Even Strade he is avoiding not to be stomped by Pogacar.

On the other hand, Pogacar may lose, but he is not afraid to ride the races that are not tailored for him.

 

[scribers]

I think mvp accepts he can podium LBL but cannot win against pogi or even remco. Lombardia will never happen. It’s like pogi lining up for a sprinters classics (which mvp wouldn’t either)

 

[JoãoRamos]

I think mvp accepts he can podium LBL but cannot win against pogi or even remco. Lombardia will never happen. It’s like pogi lining up for a sprinters classics (which mvp wouldn’t either)

It's a monument. VDP should definitely be riding it.

RVV, P-R, MSR are races that are not for climbers. Just take a look at the numbers of TDF winners that started those races. But Pogi starts them anyway.

So imho VDP only wants to ride the races he knows he is the favorite.
Ride LBL and Lombardia. These are monuments. Go for them.

 

[jono]

I don't know if I can believe. MSR 2025 is a very small sample.

First, VDP only goes for the races he knows he will dominate.

Why doesn't he race LBL? Lombardia?

Even Strade he is avoiding not to be stomped by Pogacar.

On the other hand, Pogacar may lose, but he is not afraid to ride the races that are not tailored for him.

He has raced Lombardia. He raced Amstel and Liege and an unfavorable Worlds course last year.

Having to accommodate a secondary peak in December-January for cyclocross makes racing everything more difficult as well, in particular Strade and Lombardia.

 

[JoãoRamos]

He has raced Lombardia. He raced Amstel and Liege and an unfavorable Worlds course last year.

Having to accommodate a secondary peak in December-January for cyclocross makes racing everything more difficult as well, in particular Strade and Lombardia.

He said he is not riding Strade anymore because now it's too hard for him.

So imho he is hiding from these races because he knows he has no chance whatsoever.

 

[scribers]

he will be a cycling god without ultra climbing and sprinters abilities. No sense lining up for races that don’t suit him. For example, it’s difficult to watch him in the tour, as there’s nothing for him to do besides domestique work.

 

[JoãoRamos]

he will be a cycling god without ultra climbing and sprinters abilities. No sense lining up for races that don’t suit him. For example, it’s difficult to watch him in the tour, as there’s nothing for him to do besides domestique work.

Yes, but there is no sense for Pogi to line up for P-R, MSR.

But he does it anyway. Even those Worlds not suited for him, he lines up as well.

Look, VDP is a Strade winner, and he just is too afraid to ride it nowadays.

At the end of the day, even people saying VDP is the best classics rider of this era, I know that Pogi will have more monuments and palmares than him when all is said and done. And this brings me peace.