Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Cycling111]

He needs to win PR and MSR in the next 2 years. If not, I don't believe he will do it anymore.

VDP is better than ever at 30.
Pedersen is stronger than ever at 30.
Roglic is finding it increasingly difficult to perform all year, but he's a favorite for the Giro at 36.
Gilbert won Roubaix at 36.

We don't know when Pogacar's decline will begin.
It's normal to slow down performance first in long-duration races like the GTs. He might continue trying the classics for 2-3 years when he can't compete in the Tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

in a post race video he and Vermeersch both say "we'll come back"

They can be a deadly duo if everything goes right.

 

[Red Rick]

VDP is better than ever at 30.
Pedersen is stronger than ever at 30.
Roglic is finding it increasingly difficult to perform all year, but he's a favorite for the Giro at 36.
Gilbert won Roubaix at 36.

We don't know when Pogacar's decline will begin.
It's normal to slow down performance first in long-duration races like the GTs. He might continue trying the classics for 2-3 years when he can't compete in the Tour.

Pogacar is the level where you don't age out of winning heaps but it requires new riders spawning that hit that level.

For Pogacar it's huge that he's like 5 years younger than Van der Poel

 

[Peyroteo94]

VDP is better than ever at 30.
Pedersen is stronger than ever at 30.
Roglic is finding it increasingly difficult to perform all year, but he's a favorite for the Giro at 36.
Gilbert won Roubaix at 36.

We don't know when Pogacar's decline will begin.
It's normal to slow down performance first in long-duration races like the GTs. He might continue trying the classics for 2-3 years when he can't compete in the Tour.

It is just a feeling. Pogacar will not be this dominant forever.

 

[Cycling111]

They can be a deadly duo if everything goes right.

He'd have to change his attitude from the other day.
When VDP attacks on the road, it has to be Pogacar who closes the gap with Pedersen in his wheel. While they're in the same group, Vermeersch never gave a relay.
While he was in the same group, Vermeersch never helped Pogacar at any point during the race.
Pogacar could have gonealone to PR because the team didn't help him at all.

It is just a feeling. Pogacar will not be this dominant forever.

Obviously, but Van der Poel, for example, started very young and now at 30, he's stronger than ever.

I think Pogacar's dominance will first fall in GT. It's what happened to other dominant riders. First, they stopped dominating the Tour, but they continued for a couple more years winning classics that require less prolonged effort.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He'd have to change his attitude from the other day.
When VDP attacks on the road, it has to be Pogacar who closes the gap with Pedersen in his wheel. While they're in the same group, Vermeersch never gave a relay.
While he was in the same group, Vermeersch never helped Pogacar at any point during the race.
Pogacar could have gonealone to PR because the team didn't help him at all.


Obviously, but Van der Poel, for example, started very young and now at 30, he's stronger than ever.

I think Pogacar's dominance will first fall in GT. It's what happened to other dominant riders. First, they stopped dominating the Tour, but they continued for a couple more years winning classics that require less prolonged effort.

Pogacar never relies on his team to close gaps to his main rival and he is right. Racing situation was good before his crash. Philipsen was gone, Veermersch coming from behind could help him to gamble with MVP. A pity he crashed

 

[Jan the Man]

Point taken on sprinters. The do tend to always be at the ready and the wins frequently reflect this. the example by cookster of Valverde is another good one and outlier.

I do take exception to Remco as he typically has a handful of races he just doesn't 'show up' to when he's there. Such as P-N last year. He was wonky in the vuelta two years ago. Seemed to hold form between the tour + olympics and maybe sagged a bit for Lombardia. He crashes with great cause so much, we don't have reliable data.

Remco finished 2nd in Lombardia last year and would have won comfortably but for Pogi racing.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Remco finished 2nd in Lombardia last year and would have won comfortably but for Pogi racing.

You could put any Remco (even the best ever) and he wouldn't stand a chance in GdL.

 

[Shortcut]

It is just a feeling. Pogacar will not be this dominant forever.

I have the same feeling but just GT-wise. It all depends what happens in next two years. If he wins 2X TdF+ 1 Vuelta, he can than take "easy". Even if he is not the best anymore he can probably still wins Giro or Vuelta years after that. On Monuments i can see hin growing and not declining. He seems to take those losses (MSR and P-R) pretty hard and that is suprising for me. It is really just about MvDP and not others (i don't see anyone coming in next years except maybe Brennan) and MvDP being in this amazing shape. The other guys came close to Pogi and MvDP at RVV and P-R because those two are killing themself with all those accelerations. It so much more easy to just go your own tempo that doing what those two monsters are doing. You could see how easy is for them when other is not on the start at Strade and E3.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I have the same feeling but just GT-wise. It all depends what happens in next two years. If he wins 2X TdF+ 1 Vuelta, he can than take "easy". Even if he is not the best anymore he can probably still wins Giro or Vuelta years after that. On Monuments i can see hin growing and not declining. He seems to take those losses (MSR and P-R) pretty hard and that is suprising for me. It is really just about MvDP and not others (i don't see anyone coming in next years except maybe Brennan) and MvDP being in this amazing shape. The other guys came close to Pogi and MvDP at RVV and P-R because those two are killing themself with all those accelerations. It so much more easy to just go your own tempo that doing what those two monsters are doing. You could see how easy is for them when other is not on the start at Strade and E3.

I'm not seeing anyone close to his level in GTs for a couple years (bar Vingegaard). Vingegaard is almost 2 years older and he seems more fragile than ever. If he somehow doesn't compete with Pogacar, Pogacar (unless he crashes) will break the TdF record

 

[Cycling111]

I have the same feeling but just GT-wise. It all depends what happens in next two years. If he wins 2X TdF+ 1 Vuelta, he can than take "easy". Even if he is not the best anymore he can probably still wins Giro or Vuelta years after that. On Monuments i can see hin growing and not declining. He seems to take those losses (MSR and P-R) pretty hard and that is suprising for me. It is really just about MvDP and not others (i don't see anyone coming in next years except maybe Brennan) and MvDP being in this amazing shape. The other guys came close to Pogi and MvDP at RVV and P-R because those two are killing themself with all those accelerations. It so much more easy to just go your own tempo that doing what those two monsters are doing. You could see how easy is for them when other is not on the start at Strade and E3.

In the history of cycling, it's been more common to see winners of monumentos or major classics over 30 years old than Tour de France winners over 30.

Experience helps a lot in PR, and also because it's harder to maintain three-week performance over 30, however, one-day performance can be achieved at a mature age.

Van der Poel won his first Roubaix at 28. Experience is very important in Roubaix, especially for someone less specialized like Pogacar. I think with two more editions, he'll improve his performance in Roubaix. If he doesn't make certain mistakes, he'll use less energy in a race like this.

 

[BubbaChuck]

''The average age of the tour winner is 28 years, ranging from the youngest Henri Cornet winning in 1904 at only 20 years of age, the oldest Firmin Lambot winning in 1922 aged 36. In recent years, the winners were generally above the average age, being experienced riders in their early thirties.''Pog will get only stronger and stronger.I expect pog to reach level called untouchable in 2 years,lmao.

 

[BubbaChuck]

my prediction pog will be youngest and oldest tour winner in last 100 years.

 

[Cycling111]

my prediction pog will be youngest and oldest tour winner in last 100 years.

I don't think so. Performance in GT declines earlier. He could win Giro and specially La Vuelta over 30, and with classics at the end of his career.


Hinault destroyed Sallanches.
I don't want to imagine what Pogacar can do.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912065512311284175

View: https://x.com/laflammerouge16/status/1912065512311284175

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Did u see Mvdp in E3, SanRemo and Roubaix?
He was not even close in Flanders!

If he would, he would ride away and finish with Pog or X seconds behind him but still way in front of Pedersen,Wva and Stuyven.

To claim, he gots destroyed by Pog(to close to the sun) and thats why he finsihed with group 2 is ridiculous if u consider his races in 2025.....
(that does not mean he would win or finish with Pog... thats something different).

this was my point

I can accept he'd be 2nd at like 30 seconds or 15. But he was nowhere near his e3/msr level

 

[Peyroteo94]

In the history of cycling, it's been more common to see winners of monumentos or major classics over 30 years old than Tour de France winners over 30.

Experience helps a lot in PR, and also because it's harder to maintain three-week performance over 30, however, one-day performance can be achieved at a mature age.

Van der Poel won his first Roubaix at 28. Experience is very important in Roubaix, especially for someone less specialized like Pogacar. I think with two more editions, he'll improve his performance in Roubaix. If he doesn't make certain mistakes, he'll use less energy in a race like this.

You have a lot of winners over 30 years in the last 35 years (specialization era).
Indurain 2x (30 and 31 when he won the Tour)
Armstrong 4x
Riis
Sastre
Evans
Froome 3x
Thomas

11 times in 35 editions. 31% is not that rare.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

MVP also said without that crash, they would be together in the velodrome.
However, Pogacar never took the gap under 15 seconds (and not 12). Other thing important to say is the fact he raced without powermeter for the last 38 km.

Van der Poel's power meter broke after Arenberg so he rode without power for 90

 

[Peyroteo94]

my prediction pog will be youngest and oldest tour winner in last 100 years.

He is the youngest winner? And who is the oldest winner?
Edit: I didn't see you wrote the oldest

 

[Peyroteo94]

Van der Poel's power meter broke after Arenberg so he rode without power for 90

Yup, I didn't know when I wrote that post.
It was a shame to see that crash, specially due to him losing 30 seconds just in that moment. The new bike was also with his front wheel's brake giving problems (the reason to switch bike again). A shame, he would be a interesting battle in Carrefour, MVP was flying there! Next year, we will see this battle again and I can't wait!

 

[Peyroteo94]

I don't think so. Performance in GT declines earlier. He could win Giro and specially La Vuelta over 30, and with classics at the end of his career.


Hinault destroyed Sallanches.
I don't want to imagine what Pogacar can do.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912065512311284175

View: https://x.com/laflammerouge16/status/1912065512311284175

Slovenia is weak. This will be a very hard WC to control. If he had UAE there, it woulf be a easy win but with Slovenia, things can go wild with 140 km to go.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

In hilly classics we never see Pogacar going to his limits like he did in PR.
His LBL 2024 win is perfect example of that. Go hard for 5/10 km and then zone 2 ride until the finish.

it also makes total sense. If you have a guy with the power of a flat classics guy but he weights 10-15kg less he will be an absolute monster in the hilly classics and climbs. He can just cruise to the win in Liege and Lombardia.

 

[Cycling111]

You have a lot of winners over 30 years in the last 35 years (specialization era).
Indurain 2x (30 and 31 when he won the Tour)
Armstrong 4x
Riis
Sastre
Evans
Froome 3x
Thomas

11 times in 35 editions. 31% is not that rare.

Yes, earlier 30´s and riders who exploded later.
There have been riders 35 or older who have won classics rather than a Tour de France.

And for someone who started very young, it's harder to perform in a TDF over 30 than in the classics. Van der Poel has been in the sport for many years, and at 30, he doesn't notice any decline. It's very likely that Remco and Pogacar at 30 won't be able to win a TDF, but they could win Liège and one-day efforts.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pogacar is the level where you don't age out of winning heaps but it requires new riders spawning that hit that level.

For Pogacar it's huge that he's like 5 years younger than Van der Poel

its not 5. Its 3

 

[scribers]

Pogacar will be quite competitive at whatever he wants to race into his 30’s

 

[Peyroteo94]

it also makes total sense. If you have a guy with the power of a flat classics guy but he weights 10-15kg less he will be an absolute monster in the hilly classics and climbs. He can just cruise to the win in Liege and Lombardia.

I completely agree. It is just absurd how he can probably produce 50-100 watts more than his rivals (Vingegaard, Roglic, Remco, Landa).