Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Do we know if Pog comes in heavier this year to LBL than last year? Last year he hade done Catalunya and was going to the Giro. This year the schedule have been different, focus during the spring has been one day races, doing both RVV and PR.

Question is if Pog is less prepared for LBL this year than last year. Is he a kilo heavier? Is his climbing shape at this time as good as it was last year. After all LBL is about 4300 m elevation gain. I wonder if the race this year will take a bit more of a toll on him than last year.

Last year his main focus was on stage-racing (GT double attempt) while this year he did cobbles monuments double so he was probably lighter exactly one year ago. IMO a different form trajectory (i.e. possible fatigue and post-peak form) is likely a more important factor though.

 

[Medvind]

Last year his main focus was on stage-racing (GT double attempt) while this year he did cobbles monuments double so he was probably lighter exactly one year ago. IMO a different form trajectory (i.e. possible fatigue and post-peak form) is likely a more important factor though.

Of course agree with this and should have mentioned it. But beside this I wonder if there are other factors like weight and different preperation this year that contributes to make him less prepared for LBL this year. And as you say, probably a bit heavier because he needed a kilo or two more in the cobbles races.

 

[AmRacer]

Of course agree with this and should have mentioned it. But beside this I wonder if there are other factors like weight and different preperation this year that contributes to make him less prepared for LBL this year. And as you say, probably a bit heavier because he needed a kilo or two more in the cobbles races.

Last year, he had an easy route to LBL.

 

[Medvind]

Last year, he had an easy route to LBL.

Yes, I know that, but I also guess the training was different last year (no cobbles, Giro-Tour double) than this year and I wonder if that will play a smal factor tomorrow. Climbing legs might not just be as good as last year, not just because of more fatigue but also becuase of less climbing training. Or am I reaching here?

 

[AmRacer]

Yes, I know that, but I also guess the training was different last year (no cobbles, Giro-Tour double) than this year and I wonder if that will play a smal factor tomorrow. Climbing legs might not just be as good as last year, not just because of more fatigue but also becuase of less climbing training. Or am I reaching here?

Pogi 2024 LBL should be better than Pogi 2025 LBL, but he might be a better rider 2025.

 

[Medvind]

Pogi 2024 LBL should be better than Pogi 2025 LBL, but he might be a better rider 2025.

Yes, he might be, at least his power on shorter efforts seems better. Will be interesting to see if he will continue to improve on longer climbing efforts. I actually doubt he can improve much more in this sense, because what we saw last year was already an incredible level.

 

[Peyroteo94]

If he feels good and his doms are spent, yes, then I think he will go on La Redoute. Otherwise, he might wait to Faucons.

Question is if Remco believe he can win by following Pog from La Redoute, knowing the distance from La Redoute to Faucons is only 20k and quite hilly. If Remco is sure he can come back after Faucons, thinking he can limit the loss on Faucons to only 5-10s, then he might let Pog dictate the race and just follow him and take turns.

But something tells me that Remco will not let Pog dictate the race. He might bet on Pog's shape worsening a bit after a long spring campaign and that a really hard race is to Remco's benefit. So I wouldn't rule out an attack by Remco before La Redoute, baiting Pog in to a long mano a mano where Remco can use his tt skills and great aero position, like he did against WVA in BP. If it will work is another question, but it might be his best chance.

Lets say we have a La Redoute attack by Pog and Remco manages to follow him, If UAE doms a spent, I'm open for Remco not working with Pog, let other strong riders come back and make it a chaotic situation where riders start attacking and let Pog cover the attacks, or force him to attack away again, and when the situation is right he should attack himself. But I'm of course very doubtful Remco would try this tactic because it would signal he can't win by his own strenght over Pog, and Remco is a proudful guy so he will probably just work with Pog and believe he can beat him in a mano a mano battle from La Redoute to the finish. I give Remco 10-20 % chance of winning in this scenario.

I don't see Remco's advantage in doing a long range attack with Pogacar. Pogacar is not WVA, specially when we are talking about hilly terrain. His best bet is waiting for Pogacar and pray to follow him in La Redoute and Roche aux Faucons, then he should try to win the sprint.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Do we know if Pog comes in heavier this year to LBL than last year? Last year he hade done Catalunya and was going to the Giro. This year the schedule have been different, focus during the spring has been one day races, doing both RVV and PR.

Question is if Pog is less prepared for LBL this year than last year. Is he a kilo heavier? Is his climbing shape at this time as good as it was last year. After all LBL is about 4300 m elevation gain. I wonder if the race this year will take a bit more of a toll on him than last year.

Pogacar is a natural climber. He can be 2 kilos heavier and still is the best climber in the world (unless Vingegaard is in his July shape).

 

[Peyroteo94]

I want Pogacar to win, specially with a Poggenheimer just like last year however if I had to ask for something, it would be a race with no crashes because I want to see Pogacar and Remco in the Tour without any limitation.

 

[Medvind]

Pogacar is a natural climber. He can be 2 kilos heavier and still is the best climber in the world (unless Vingegaard is in his July shape).

Of course he is the best climber, I was not questing that. My question is if several factors together might make him less sharp in this year's LBL. Possible fatigue, bit heavier, climbing shape not on same level at this time as last.

I of course believe that a Pog in less shape than last year probably wins anyway. He doesn't need to be in 100 % to win. But if the shape isn't 100 % and Remco has a super day, well, then he might lose.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Of course he is the best climber, I was not questing that. My question is if several factors together might make him less sharp in this year's LBL. Possible fatigue, bit heavier, climbing shape not on same level at this time as last.

I of course believe that a Pog in less shape than last year probably wins anyway. He doesn't need to be in 100 % to win. But if the shape isn't 100 % and Remco has a super day, well, then he might lose.

The only question is fatigue. Next year he was starving hungry to race again after a training camp (wasn't the conventional altitude training camp), this spark, this desire of racing again is not there, so I believe he can lose the race. It is very hard to see him being dropped by Evenepoel but a sprint loss is a possible scenario IMHO.

 

[YavorD]

I don't see Remco's advantage in doing a long range attack with Pogacar. Pogacar is not WVA, specially when we are talking about hilly terrain. His best bet is waiting for Pogacar and pray to follow him in La Redoute and Roche aux Faucons, then he should try to win the sprint.

If Evenepoel is strong enough to follow Pogacar on Redoute and RaF, then he is strong enough to take on Pogacar in a long 1:1 battle.
Surely just waiting isn't his best bet if he feels strong/feels that Pogacar is worsening or both.
As waiting narrows it down to an acceleration/sprint game and Pog should be better on both.

 

[Medvind]

The only question is fatigue. Next year he was starving hungry to race again after a training camp (wasn't the conventional altitude training camp), this spark, this desire of racing again is not there, so I believe he can lose the race. It is very hard to see him being dropped by Evenepoel but a sprint loss is a possible scenario IMHO.

Agree, he will not drop Pog on any climb, so if he wins it will be in a sprint. Sure, there is a smal possibilty he could get away on flatter terrain if a more chaotic situation with several rider develops, but UAE will probably see to it that this doesn't become a reality.

My point in mentioning weight and maybe less climbing shape than last year is not that they are deciding factors, but that they will add on if Pog is a bit fatigued going in to the race.

But there is one thing I've learned about Pog over the years. When you feel he might performe less good, he proves you wrong. So, I could also see him demolish everyone tomorrow, even Remco. He takes 10 s on La Redoute and on the hilly terrain afterwards Remco never gets back. Race over, Pog wins with a minute.

 

[Peyroteo94]

If Evenepoel is strong enough to follow Pogacar on Redoute and RaF, then he is strong enough to take on Pogacar in a long 1:1 battle.
Surely just waiting isn't his best bet if he feels strong/feels that Pogacar is worsening or both.
As waiting narrows it down to an acceleration/sprint game and Pog should be better on both.

Remco is explosive. A harder race benefits Pogacar more than Remco IMHO (probably we disagree on this), since he is a better climber. A waiting game would keep Remco fresher and probably able to not lose more than 15 seconds just in case he gets dropped and then do his best to catch Pogacar. In FW, we had a very hard race and I don't see where was Pogacar weaker. There are a lot of examples (this year) that a harder race benefits Pogacar. Of course I can be totally wrong.

 

[pelotonIQ]

1km @12% avg with a 14-16% section in the middle. Remco is not built for this steepness, his biggest limitation in climbing are double-digit gradients.

 

[YavorD]

Remco is explosive. A harder race benefits Pogacar more than Remco IMHO (probably we disagree on this), since he is a better climber. A waiting game would keep Remco fresher and probably able to not lose more than 15 seconds just in case he gets dropped and then do his best to catch Pogacar. In FW, we had a very hard race and I don't see where was Pogacar weaker. There are a lot of examples (this year) that a harder race benefits Pogacar. Of course I can be totally wrong.

Well, Pogacar has actually beaten Pedersen on a sprint. A fresh Pogaca should naturally have much better kick or sprint than Evenepoel so just waiting for a sprint is hoping for a miracle.

Pogacar being tired after the long campaign is more likely that Evenepoel beating him on a sprint IMO, so Evenepoel should exploit that.

 

[Medvind]

Remco is explosive. A harder race benefits Pogacar more than Remco IMHO (probably we disagree on this), since he is a better climber. A waiting game would keep Remco fresher and probably able to not lose more than 15 seconds just in case he gets dropped and then do his best to catch Pogacar. In FW, we had a very hard race and I don't see where was Pogacar weaker. There are a lot of examples (this year) that a harder race benefits Pogacar. Of course I can be totally wrong.

Versus a fresh Pog I wouldn't give Remco an advantage but versus a bit more fatigued Pog I think a hard race could be to Remco's advantage. But is LBL terrian the most suitable one for a long mano a mano battle against Pog? Not sure.

I'm acutally a bit torn witch strategy is best for Remco. Ride more passive and save energy towards the end and hope to ride back after Pog attacks on RaF and go to a sprint? But if UAE can dictate the race and get Pog relatively fresh to RaF, I think he will explode away from Remco on the climb and Remco will never get back. If Remco can get together with Pog to RaF after a really hard race then some of the sting in Pog's legs might be gone and he can't force a strong attack on RaF.

 

[Peyroteo94]

1km @12% avg with a 14-16% section in the middle. Remco is not built for this steepness, his biggest limitation in climbing are double-digit gradients.

In my opinion, his biggest limitation is doing long climbs. He won a Vuelta so I don't think double digits gradients are his problem.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Well, Pogacar has actually beaten Pedersen on a sprint. A fresh Pogaca should naturally have much better kick or sprint than Evenepoel so just waiting for a sprint is hoping for a miracle.

Pogacar being tired after the long campaign is more likely that Evenepoel beating him on a sprint IMO, so Evenepoel should exploit that.

I think you are underestimating Remco's sprint. He is no longer the same rider he was in 2021 (didn't have a sprint ability at all). I think a harder race will make Remco more tired than Pogacar so more chances he will not catch Pogacar if he gets dropped.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Versus a fresh Pog I wouldn't give Remco an advantage but versus a bit more fatigued Pog I think a hard race could be to Remco's advantage. But is LBL terrian the most suitable one for a long mano a mano battle against Pog? Not sure.

I'm acutally a bit torn witch strategy is best for Remco. Ride more passive and save energy towards the end and hope to ride back after Pog attacks on RaF and go to a sprint? But if UAE can dictate the race and get Pog relatively fresh to RaF, I think he will explode away from Remco on the climb and Remco will never get back. If Remco can get together with Pog to RaF after a really hard race then some of the sting in Pog's legs might be gone and he can't force a strong attack on RaF.

The problem is this seems a really wishful thinking. There is zero evidence that a harder race will compromise Pogacar's chances. His entire classics season have been done with a pattern. Attack early to force a early selection and kill his rivals legs, then attack later to drop them all. This is Pogacar's favorite way of racing.
Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[pelotonIQ]

In my opinion, his biggest limitation is doing long climbs. He won a Vuelta so I don't think double digits gradients are his problem.

Usually the vuelta has a lot of steep climbs except the vuelta he won, with only 1 steep climb to the finish line on stage 9 with 3,8km 13% in which he had a climbing gear ratio and rode steadily. LBL is a different monster it's going to be attacks.

 

[YavorD]

I think you are underestimating Remco's sprint. He is no longer the same rider he was in 2021 (didn't have a sprint ability at all). I think a harder race will make Remco more tired than Pogacar so more chances he will not catch Pogacar if he gets dropped.

I don't really. Possibly I'm overestimating Pogacar's sprint, but I know Evenepoel is legit. I simply think that Pogacar is considerably better sprinter.
And while the latter is true, it also means more chances for Evenepoel to beat Pogacar in a sprint if he isn't dropped/he catches back.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Usually the vuelta has a lot of steep climbs except the vuelta he won, with only 1 steep climb to the finish line on stage 9 with 3,8km 13% in which he had a climbing gear ratio and rode steadily. LBL is a different monster it's going to be attacks.

But he won a lot of time in that stage. For example Roglic who is very good in steep gradients (I know he wasn't st his best) lost more than a minute to Evenepoel in 4 km. That's a lot.

 

[Savant12]

A lot of overthinking going on. Pog just needs to decide when to drop everyone and ride to victory.

 

[Medvind]

The problem is this seems a really wishful thinking. There is zero evidence that a harder race will compromise Pogacar's chances. His entire classics season have been done with a pattern. Attack early to force a early selection and kill his rivals legs, then attack later to drop them all. This is Pogacar's favorite way of racing.
Correct me if I am wrong.

It's not wishful, it's based on Pog being up against Remco who is a different animal than other competitors, one who is a stellar tt rider and who himself mauls down the competition in long races (Olympics, Worlds 22, LBL, San Sebastian) and the fact that Pog has had a long spring campaign and that he might just be a bit weaker than usual. As I said before, a fresh Pog like in SB or RVV is one thing, then Remco would have a tough time.

And remember, we are here talkning about what Remco's best strategy is to win, which doesn't mean he will, it's about improving his chances. Is it better to bet on catching Pog after he attacks on RaF and hope to win a sprint? Maybe it is, but I'm not sure after what I saw Pog doing on Huy in just 300 m.