What Pogacar did this spring is nothing short of science fiction.
He attacked on Colle Pinzuto at Strade Bianche, On Cipressa, he did something that hasn’t been done in over 50 years. On the Kwaremont, he straight-up broke MVDP in his own playground. At Amstel Gold, he went easily on the Keutenberg, Then at Liège, he nuked everyone on La Redoute, and at Flèche Wallonne he casually dropped the whole field on the Mur de Huy, a climb usually reserved for pure punchers.
Meanwhile, Vingegaard was twice outsprinted by Almeida and only won the Volta ao Algarve because of the time trial. That’s basically it for his spring.
When you read through what Pogacar has done this year, it’s honestly insane that anyone would even doubt him, unless we’re talking about injury or illness. It seems like he’s treating the first 12 days of the Tour as just staying out of trouble. He hasn’t attacked yet, just riding within himself and saving energy. He knows that the only place where Jonas can really challenge him is on the long climbs, and maybe he’s even deliberately dropped some explosiveness because even at 80%, he’s still better than almost everyone maybe with the exception of MVDP.
Massive respect to Vingegaard, he’s a monster on the long mountain stages but I honestly think it’ll play out just like after the Dauphiné: Pogacar dominating once the real climbs begin.