Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Yeah, I guess we will find out sooner rather than later how much he is affected. They will likely not say anything, just hope for the best.
It looked like a little road rash. He has a rest day to stretch and ride it out. He needs to get his Head Right for the final week and not let the drama over team members crashing out add to his stress. If Wout has issues then Jonas will as well.
 
It looked like a little road rash. He has a rest day to stretch and ride it out. He needs to get his Head Right for the final week and not let the drama over team members crashing out add to his stress. If Wout has issues then Jonas will as well.
I still don’t quite understand how team matters that much in the mountains when you’re as strong as your rival and the rival’s team won’t be there during any of the hardest part. Even for Pog it wouldn’t have mattered on stage 11 if he didn’t chase Roglic constantly.
 
I still don’t quite understand how team matters that much in the mountains when you’re as strong as your rival and the rival’s team won’t be there during any of the hardest part. Even for Pog it wouldn’t have mattered on stage 11 if he didn’t chase Roglic constantly.
On the mountain....less for Tadej than others. Getting to the hills with support for gap-bridging, bottles, food is the challenge for him. 3 weeks of constant minor efforts grind on the best of them. Ineos has to climb over Tadej, too. They have a few moves they can make and he'll need to be selective just like Vingo. As long as Jonas has teammates around him Pogacar will likely follow that strategy. It wouldn't hurt if McNulty stays directly with him and doesn't waste energy anywhere else.
 
I still don’t quite understand how team matters that much in the mountains when you’re as strong as your rival and the rival’s team won’t be there during any of the hardest part. Even for Pog it wouldn’t have mattered on stage 11 if he didn’t chase Roglic constantly.
And then Roglic goes off the front with WVA. Pogacar needed his team to not waste energy countering the attacks.
 
I still don’t quite understand how team matters that much in the mountains when you’re as strong as your rival and the rival’s team won’t be there during any of the hardest part. Even for Pog it wouldn’t have mattered on stage 11 if he didn’t chase Roglic constantly.
Your team usually doesn't win you the Tour in the mountains but it keeps you from losing it. Froome in his Sky heydays never would have had to react to the attack on the Telegraphe, he wouldn't have had to waste so much energy early in the stage and even if had still been on a bad day he would have been surrounded by so many teammates until late on the final climb that riders wouldn't have dared to attack. In 2017 Froome effectively lost 22 seconds in an uphill sprint in Peyragudes, but because nobody had dared to attack the mighty Sky until the final kilometre his bad day resulted in barely any time loss. Who knows if he even wins that Tour, had he been isolated earlier with Bardet, Uran and Aru attacking on the Port de Bales or the Peyresourde.

There are so many possible scenarios how Vingegaard could be saved by his team. An ill timed mechanical, a crash, maybe Pogacar attacks from so far out that even Vingegaard doesn't dare to follow and rather wants to rely on his team chasing. And then there is the possibility that Pogacar actually manages to drop Vingegaard. Just because a rider has been able to follow another riders attacks for two weeks doesn't mean he does in the third week. In 2015 Quintana was by far the best climber in the third week after getting demolished in the 2nd one. Yet Froome's mountain train kept him in that Tour.

Roglic and Kruijswijk abandoning was absolutely huge for this gc battle. TJV doesn't have the numbers to put a climber in the break anymore, WVA might be the best bike rider in the world, but he is still not a mountain goat who you can rely on near the end of every mountain stage and Kuss is infamously unreliable. If Vingegaard is isolated early he isn't just more vulnerable to Pogacar's attacks, a tactical move from a team like Ineos suddenly becomes a serious threat and a mechanical in the wrong moment can end all his hopes of victory at any moment.
 
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I still don’t quite understand how team matters that much in the mountains when you’re as strong as your rival and the rival’s team won’t be there during any of the hardest part. Even for Pog it wouldn’t have mattered on stage 11 if he didn’t chase Roglic constantly.
It matters. Food and water suppy, they can close the attacks of your rivals, keep your face sheltered from the wind, give you psychological advantage,... it is all about preserving energy in order to be as fresh as possible when there is time to attack or defend attacks on your own. Small details and % of energy can win or lose you a grand tour especially if you have two riders that are evenly matched in strenght.

On stage 11 Pog had to dig towards red couple of times to many (some by his own mistake covering Rogla) and Vigo was able to preserve more energy for final 4 - 5 kilometres of racing. That has made all the difference on that day.
 
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Your team usually doesn't win you the Tour in the mountains but it keeps you from losing it. Froome in his Sky heydays never would have had to react to the attack on the Telegraphe, he wouldn't have had to waste so much energy early in the stage and even if had still been on a bad day he would have been surrounded by so many teammates until late on the final climb that riders wouldn't have dared to attack. In 2017 Froome effectively lost 22 seconds in an uphill sprint in Peyragudes, but because nobody had dared to attack the mighty Sky until the final kilometre his bad day resulted in barely any time loss. Who knows if he even wins that Tour, had he been isolated earlier with Bardet, Uran and Aru attacking on the Port de Bales or the Peyresourde.

There are so many possible scenarios how Vingegaard could be saved by his team. An ill timed mechanical, a crash, maybe Pogacar attacks from so far out that even Vingegaard doesn't dare to follow and rather wants to rely on his team chasing. And then there is the possibility that Pogacar actually manages to drop Vingegaard. Just because a rider has been able to follow another riders attacks for two weeks doesn't mean he does in the third week. In 2015 Quintana was by far the best climber in the third week after getting demolished in the 2nd one. Yet Froome's mountain train kept him in that Tour.

Roglic and Kruijswijk abandoning was absolutely huge for this gc battle. TJV doesn't have the numbers to put a climber in the break anymore, WVA might be the best bike rider in the world, but he is still not a mountain goat who you can rely on near the end of every mountain stage and Kuss is infamously unreliable. If Vingegaard is isolated early he isn't just more vulnerable to Pogacar's attacks, a tactical move from a team like Ineos suddenly becomes a serious threat and a mechanical in the wrong moment can end all his hopes of victory at any moment.
Vingegaard is in much worse position than Roglic was in 2020.

He’s going to have to do this by himself, I think. Kuss is not even close to Pogacar’s level in the mountains and Wout can help control the early pace but that also helps Pog.

On the plus side he has more time in hand.
 
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Vingegaard is in much worse position than Roglic was in 2020.

He’s going to have to do this by himself, I think. Kuss is not even close to Pogacar’s level in the mountains and Wout can help control the early pace but that also helps Pog.

On the plus side he has more time in hand.
I think the crucial difference is, there is no TT at the end of this race where Pogacar can realistically gain as much time as he did in LPdBF. Vingegaard might be in a worse position for the mountain stages than Roglic was in 2020, but then Roglic didn't lose that Tour in the mountain stages.
 
I think the crucial difference is, there is no TT at the end of this race where Pogacar can realistically gain as much time as he did in LPdBF. Vingegaard might be in a worse position for the mountain stages than Roglic was in 2020, but then Roglic didn't lose that Tour in the mountain stages.
The dynamic just isn't remotely close. In hindsight it was Pogs race to lose and it was a miscalculation. Now there's basically no calculation to be done, and Pog's gonna have to go balls to the wall to beat the better climber so far.

The closest GT I think I can compare this to is the Contador vs Rodriguez in the 2012 Vuelta or Contador vs Froome in the 2014 Vuelta.

I think Jumbo's objective should be to get sattelite riders up the road to limit Pogs ability to attack from 2 climbs out.

Pogacar I think has a big decision to make in if he's gonna attack descents or not. I guess Foix will basically be a freeroll testing stage.

If Vingegaards climbing is affected by the crash, and Pogacar can drop him, I think Pogacars equation instantly becomes to attack Val Louron and to attack Spandelles
 
I think the crucial difference is, there is no TT at the end of this race where Pogacar can realistically gain as much time as he did in LPdBF. Vingegaard might be in a worse position for the mountain stages than Roglic was in 2020, but then Roglic didn't lose that Tour in the mountain stages.
But I will never bet against Pogacar. If he goes to the time trial with a 1. 20 minutes deficit, I can see Pogacar winning the whole thing. He is made for big moments and has s truly remarkable recovery. He just needs 1 minute in the mountains for giving us a thrilling time trial.
 
There are so many possible scenarios how Vingegaard could be saved by his team. An ill timed mechanical, a crash, maybe Pogacar attacks from so far out that even Vingegaard doesn't dare to follow and rather wants to rely on his team chasing. And then there is the possibility that Pogacar actually manages to drop Vingegaard.
Excellent post as always, and I quoted a piece of it. Pog should be considering attacking on the MdP, isolate Vingo. If Pogacar drops Vingegaard in the descent, will Jonas wait for, say, Wout? All will spend the same energy, and any half-minute is welcome.

Geraint will make it one more day. I don't think that Bardet will move, or the following riders for that matter. This will be about Tadej Pogacar, as it should be.
 
I still don’t quite understand how team matters that much in the mountains when you’re as strong as your rival and the rival’s team won’t be there during any of the hardest part. Even for Pog it wouldn’t have mattered on stage 11 if he didn’t chase Roglic constantly.
I think it helps hugely psychologically. Cadel Evans 2011 a perfect example. A peaceful mind optimises athletic performance.

But you are right that Pog seemed overconfident on stage 11 and played into JV’s plans. But with two key climbers out JV can’t play that card again.
 
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Not sure if it’s been discussed recently, but do people think he is at an optimal weight for a GT?
Yes, I‘d say. He also mentioned before the TdF that he has even less body fat than in 2021 TdF.

I would say his weight is perfect, for the moment.

Of course, his face is still little chubby, and his arms and legs show no veins. He still has a soft look. But apparently, that works best for him at the moment.
 
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Pogacar looks resigned now to second
But I will never bet against Pogacar. If he goes to the time trial with a 1. 20 minutes deficit, I can see Pogacar winning the whole thing. He is made for big moments and has s truly remarkable recovery. He just needs 1 minute in the mountains for giving us a thrilling time trial.
can't see where he gets that minute from - I think it's more likely that Vinegaard will increase his lead before the TT
 
For me Pogacar made another mistake, attacking as he did on the first climb. He should have kept his powder dry for the last summit. On the other hand, Vingegaard looked in total control, which means, bar an unexpected crisis or misfortune, the Tour is his.
 
I can't resist the impression his spring schedule's affecting the Tour performance.
But who can blame him? If you have it, utilize the talent in fullness. Better than to have regrets.
Also good for future plans... knowing the way his body responds.
 
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