Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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zenoiz said:
I don't intend to bring up Gaimon at nauseam, but using the link below you can see his OLH data from 2017 (click the 'Watts/kg' button)
https://www.strava.com/activities/983343009/power-curve, 6.95 W/kg for 13min10sec. A 30min effort is a different beast, and I don't know too much about physiology and the expected drop-off with duration, but I would find it hard to place that isolated Madone effort: exceptionally good for sure, but 'no one else in the world able to do it' caliber? (il Cobra Ricco may disagree ;))

Looking forward to Pogacar's data indeed (hope he keeps posting).
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From what i have read, if you have an AnT of 420 W (20 minute effort), then your FTP would/should be roughly equal to 400 W (one hour) since it is usually 95% of the 20 minute effort. I do not remember where exactly i read this, but i posted it somewhere in the Evenepoel topic last month or so. However, i have no idea how 13 minutes relate to 30 minutes.

Edit: see
 
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zenoiz

Oct 18, 2012
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
From what i have read, if you have an AnT of 420 W (20 minute effort), then your FTP would/should be roughly equal to 400 W (one hour) since it is usually 95% of the 20 minute effort. I do not remember where exactly i read this, but i posted it somewhere in the Evenepoel topic last month or so. However, i have no idea how 13 minutes relate to 30 minutes.

Edit: see
Click to expand...
Yes, the 20min to 60min (FTP) extrapolation, with a 5% drop-off, is used a lot (e.g. Allen and Coggan, TrainerRoad 20min FTP test etc ), it is basically an empirical rule-of-thumb. For less-than-20min efforts, you probably have a significant anaerobic component and more variability from rider to rider. There are quite a few power-duration models around, and I have fitted some to my own data (thousands of power files) - if I get around to it I can see what a 13min >30min extrapolation would look like but it probably won't be very applicable to other riders (you'd need their max power-duration curve and you would of course know for sure)...

Edit: drop-off 13min>30min is about 8-9%, using my data. Applying this to Gaimon's OLH numbers, that would put him at about 6.38 W/kg for a virtual Madone ride... quite a bit below what Froome reportedly did indeed.
 
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RunningRouleur

Mar 8, 2019
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Yes 13–>30 minute power drop is for sure a big one. That Gaimon wouldn’t be able to hold near Froome’s power-to-weight for such a time is no surprise. Froome was riding away from the field at all in the 2013 TdF (and all season in fact). It makes sense that his numbers would be so high that year.
They’ve been slowly dropping ever since, though because Froome is so incredible, he’s still been able to win many races without being on top form.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Moderator
Feb 20, 2012
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Contador posted is data from before one of his Tour wins and it was 20 minutes at 458. He's lighter than Froome, but yeah different times.

I don't think it should be ignored that highest power estimates in racing conditions last year were probably in the Vuelta. Make of that what you will, but it's definitely lower altitude and shorter climbs. I also think it's a bit of a misconception we should expect much lower values just cause it's earlier in the year. The short 15 minute effort after a relatively easy day is probably the type of effort that's closer to GT form than anything else. No need to have the endurance down for 3 weeks yet either.

In 2015 Contador and Froome posted Hazallanas times that would've been 2nd and 3rd in in the 2013 Vuelta after Chris Horner (yeah that Chris Horner) in February.
 
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zenoiz

Oct 18, 2012
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Red Rick said:
I also think it's a bit of a misconception we should expect much lower values just cause it's earlier in the year. The short 15 minute effort after a relatively easy day is probably the type of effort that's closer to GT form than anything else. No need to have the endurance down for 3 weeks yet either.
In 2015 Contador and Froome posted Hazallanas times that would've been 2nd and 3rd in in the 2013 Vuelta after Chris Horner (yeah that Chris Horner) in February.
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I guess one reason why one could imagine early season short efforts aren't up there yet is winter fat/excess weight. But I guess the Jan Ullrich days are far behind us, these days most pro's are probably rather disciplined. And Chris Horner... I got his (in)famous Sierra Road ascent in the 2011 ToC pegged at about 6.9 W/kg (an estimate from ascent time and weight, since there is no power data); this was a 16min49s effort on a 3.5 mile, 9% grade hill - I actually watched him that day, couldn't believe what gear he was pushing, standing up the whole way, reality distortion field in full effect...
 
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zenoiz

Oct 18, 2012
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Red Rick said:
I just want Contador, Froome and Nibali to all poast their final test from before the 2014 Tour.
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That would make indeed for some nice analysis/fretting over numbers... The data is probably all out there somewhere living on various hard drives, sadly we most likely won't ever get to see it. Glad young riders like Pogacar, Haig etc post up everything - if anyone believes the nonsense it's a competitive disadvantage to be transparent with power data these guys disprove that...
 
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Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Red Rick said:
Contador posted is data from before one of his Tour wins and it was 20 minutes at 458. He's lighter than Froome, but yeah different times.

I don't think it should be ignored that highest power estimates in racing conditions last year were probably in the Vuelta. Make of that what you will, but it's definitely lower altitude and shorter climbs. I also think it's a bit of a misconception we should expect much lower values just cause it's earlier in the year. The short 15 minute effort after a relatively easy day is probably the type of effort that's closer to GT form than anything else. No need to have the endurance down for 3 weeks yet either.

In 2015 Contador and Froome posted Hazallanas times that would've been 2nd and 3rd in in the 2013 Vuelta after Chris Horner (yeah that Chris Horner) in February.
Click to expand...
The Vuelta has so many extreme climbs it's not surprising that you'd see some higher efforts. You don't have much choice when the road exceeds 20%. You also don't have much time or focus to look at a power meter trying to stay on someone's wheel.
 
O

Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Oldermanish said:
The Vuelta has so many extreme climbs it's not surprising that you'd see some higher efforts. You don't have much choice when the road exceeds 20%. You also don't have much time or focus to look at a power meter trying to stay on someone's wheel.
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Re-watched Vuelta's Stage 20 and it's clear Tadej knows how his body feels. He took that podium spot on sheer effort and didn't appear to ever look at his computer. Ahhhh youth! This one has discipline well beyond his age and that may be his best attribute.
 
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Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Koronin said:
He also isn't going to sneak up on anyone again as a GT contender.
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He was a talented opportunist, for sure and that's the price of a podium. Ask his teammate, Mr. Aru. That said; he also exploited the politics between teams well when they were trying to retrieve him. Presumably he could get stronger and so could his squad which complicates how you deal with the new depth in GC races. You've got Bernal, Carapaz, Higuita, some Americans and Belgians and probably another passle of Columbians to cloud strategy. As long as we have several predominant teams, rather than a single Discovery/Sky/Ineos conglomerate the opportunities will be there for guys like him, Nairo and others. He's been on the first podium step in Espana. It's still a team game so we'll see where he goes. I'd love to see him on a team with some help.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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Blanco said:
He didn' sneak up, he announced himself already in Andorra, in 9th stage. He didn't get that podium because others underestimated him, but because he was so damn strong!
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I'm not entirely sure other teams thought he would be strong enough to still be there at the end and pull off that escape on stage 20, which was very impressive.
 
O

Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Koronin said:
I'm not entirely sure other teams thought he would be strong enough to still be there at the end and pull off that escape on stage 20, which was very impressive.
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It didn't take him long to figure that they were all gassed as his gap got over 1:30 and there wasn't anything Astana or Movistar could do. Having the discipline to hold that advantage shows strength of legs and mindset. He appeared smart enough to secure the win as much as the gap, too.
 
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