Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

I'm getting ahead of myself now, but say Pogi wins in Australia. What was the last time someone in the rainbow jersey challenged for the TdF win?

 

[roundabout]

Olano was 2nd in 1996 with 1 mountain stage and 1 TT to go.

LeMond is the last reigning champion to win.

 

[Eeslliw]

I'm getting ahead of myself now, but say Pogi wins in Australia. What was the last time someone in the rainbow jersey challenged for the TdF win?

You won't see him in rainbow jersey in TDF. Not beacuse he will not win it, but he will wear either yellow or white jersey . Only mighty Remco can help us with that.

 

[Netserk]

To me he looks like the out-and-out favorite for Worlds tbh. I doubt Mathieu and Wout can follow him in the end with this amount of climbing

The total amount of vertical meters is closer to Bergen than Ponferrada.

Compare the circuit with the last time in Australia (profiles by Lasterketa Burua):

 

[Valv.Piti]

Sure, but I still believe that Pogacar is the favorite.

 

[fox]

Sure, but I still believe that Pogacar is the favorite.

I am going with WVA. Last year he was in top condition 2 weeks ahead of the worlds. Now he will be in top condition at the worlds. If he can find his form of the TDF he will win this

 

[memyselfandI]

It's really interesting too see how he can handle, say, three man escape between him Vout and Mathieu.

Did he get some quality training in Tour when he found out deeply that there are limits for him too? Did it change his mindset already? Two clicks more towards more tactically matured Pogi? It may need it.

I'm not ruling out for example the old one two like Vout and Mathieu first getting rid of Pogi if this trio manages to escape from bigger group/peloton.

 

[Nick2413]

You won't see him in rainbow jersey in TDF. Not beacuse he will not win it, but he will wear either yellow or white jersey . Only mighty Remco can help us with that.

Surely rainbow jersey is preferred over white?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Surely rainbow jersey is preferred over white?

I think if you're not the actual leader in the classification, but only wear a jersey because the actual leader is already wearing a different jersey (like Pogacar wearing yellow and white so someone else is wearing white since he's already wearing yellow), that in that case you get to refuse the jersey and wear your national/rainbow jersey. It's what happened in the Vuelta when Rodriguez was supposed to wear white (since Evenepoel was already wearing red), but wore his national jersey and kicked the white jersey down the ladder for Ayuso.

 

[Big Doopie]

I read a lot of people thinking Pogacar'season is not that great due to missing some major wins.

Indeed, stats wise, it is not the best one.
But what matter a lot for a rider's legacy is the impression he made on watchers.

For me, even though he lost in the TDF, in MSR and in RVV, he was the most memorable rider in those races, or at least on par with the winner.

agreed.

as I said elsewhere, no matter how this season plays out, Pog is still the best rider in the peloton.

however, imo, at present he does not have the best 2022 season. if he wins neither worlds nor Lombardia he literally has no MAJOR win this season and he would not be my vote for velo d’or.

however, I expect he likely will get one of those, so…

 

[Big Doopie]

Olano was 2nd in 1996 with 1 mountain stage and 1 TT to go.

LeMond is the last reigning champion to win.

I’m guessing cuddles was considered a candidate in 2010, but didn’t his Tdf go south (after a crash?).

 

[Cookster15]

The total amount of vertical meters is closer to Bergen than Ponferrada.

Compare the circuit with the last time in Australia (profiles by Lasterketa Burua):

Except I am not sure Mt Pleasant is the hardest climb on the course (I am looking at the below link)?

The most difficult climb looks like 8.7km climb of Mount Keira - it is only 5% but peaks at 15%. It looks a way more demanding circuit than 2010 Geelong which you compared to. There is 3945m of vertical gain over 267km. Or was the course changed?

Having said this, the course could have been much tougher, with much harder climbs in that area but for perhaps logistical reasons not chosen. The Mt Keira climb is also too far from the finish to be decisive. I am not sure its hard enough for Pogi but he will be motivated so who knows?

UCI Road World Championships 2022 - The Essential Preview | Cyclingnews

 

[Monsi]

Except I am not sure Mt Pleasant is the hardest climb on the course (I am looking at the below link)?

The most difficult climb looks like 8.7km climb of Mount Keira - it is only 5% but peaks at 15%. It looks a way more demanding circuit than 2010 Geelong which you compared to. There is 3945m of vertical gain over 267km. Or was the course changed?

Having said this, the course could have been much tougher, with much harder climbs in that area but for perhaps logistical reasons not chosen. The Mt Keira climb is also too far from the finish to be decisive. I am not sure its hard enough for Pogi but he will be motivated so who knows?

UCI Road World Championships 2022 - The Essential Preview | Cyclingnews

There's a thread on Twitter (by @Eritropoetina) which went into a deep dive of the circuit which will be tackled 12 times. Apparently, Mt. Ousley 572 m long @ 7.2 % while the toughest section of Mt. Pleasant (the main climb) is 883 m @ 9.8 %. Immediately after the that climb, there is also a 107 m section @ 10.1 %. Yeah, Mt. Keira is too far from the finish but if the circuit is ridden really hard, it may be hard enough for Pogi to put down the hammer. Also as you said, Pogi is motivated for it, especially after the Tour defeat.

 

[yaco]

Except I am not sure Mt Pleasant is the hardest climb on the course (I am looking at the below link)?

The most difficult climb looks like 8.7km climb of Mount Keira - it is only 5% but peaks at 15%. It looks a way more demanding circuit than 2010 Geelong which you compared to. There is 3945m of vertical gain over 267km. Or was the course changed?

Having said this, the course could have been much tougher, with much harder climbs in that area but for perhaps logistical reasons not chosen. The Mt Keira climb is also too far from the finish to be decisive. I am not sure its hard enough for Pogi but he will be motivated so who knows?

UCI Road World Championships 2022 - The Essential Preview | Cyclingnews

The story is that the UCI were happy to have this as a sprinter's World's but the Aussie organisers in their wisdom wanted to make it a tough course - Unless, Matthews is on a super day then he will not make the final, while I doubt the women can have much of an impact on this course.

 

[Valv.Piti]

The story is that the UCI were happy to have this as a sprinter's World's but the Aussie organisers in their wisdom wanted to make it a tough course - Unless, Matthews is on a super day then he will not make the final, while I doubt the women can have much of an impact on this course.

Why doesn't UCI want people to watch their race? A sprinters race in Australia, alrighty.

 

[Netserk]

Except I am not sure Mt Pleasant is the hardest climb on the course (I am looking at the below link)?

The most difficult climb looks like 8.7km climb of Mount Keira - it is only 5% but peaks at 15%. It looks a way more demanding circuit than 2010 Geelong which you compared to. There is 3945m of vertical gain over 267km. Or was the course changed?

Having said this, the course could have been much tougher, with much harder climbs in that area but for perhaps logistical reasons not chosen. The Mt Keira climb is also too far from the finish to be decisive. I am not sure its hard enough for Pogi but he will be motivated so who knows?

UCI Road World Championships 2022 - The Essential Preview | Cyclingnews

Mount Keira is done once at the start of the race. As I said, the total vertical gain (4133 m) is closer to Bergen (3787 m) than Ponferrada (4520 m), according to La Flamme Rouge. Don't compare it to a mountain stage where it is concentrated in a few climbs, or Liège where all the hills are in the second half. It sounds like much, but it's no problem in itself for durable sprinters.

The reason why is because the nature of a circuit means that the climbs are spaced out, and this one is to the long side with the two climbs coming together, meaning that after Pleasant they have ~13 km of flat before climbing Ousley. That makes it easy to chase and to rest between efforts. While the last climb is with ~8 km to go, the penultimate time over Pleasant is with 25 km to go, with nearly 20 km of that being flat.

That's not to say that it will definitely be a bunch sprint, but that I think it will come down to the last lap and that a reduced bunch will at least be close to catch all attackers and that limits the tactical games they can play. And that makes it hard for Pogi. His path to victory is a select group getting away on the last climb that holds on and sprints for the win. I don't see any other.

 

[Lequack]

These weak Australian climbs will not stop the sprinters. Even Caleb Ewan could've easily won this, had he started. I think it will be a reduced sprint of about 30 riders.

 

[johnymax]

These weak Australian climbs will not stop the sprinters. Even Caleb Ewan could've easily won this, had he started. I think it will be a reduced sprint of about 30 riders.

With Pogi outsprinting everyone.

 

[tobydawq]

These weak Australian climbs will not stop the sprinters. Even Caleb Ewan could've easily won this, had he started. I think it will be a reduced sprint of about 30 riders.

Have you seen any racing the last three years?

Last year, and in Yorkshire, it was the same nonsense and people thought Bennett or Ewan would win...

 

[KZD]

Have you seen any racing the last three years?

Last year, and in Yorkshire, it was the same nonsense and people thought Bennett or Ewan would win...

Yup cycling nowadays is very different from 2017, I would be surprised if a similar scenario to Bergen happens

 

[hayneplane]

We have too many formidable attackers like MVDP/Pocagar/WVA/Remco for it not to splinter into smaller groups this time around.

Ghirmay at his best could feature but not sure post Giro and the French may still be a factor even without Alaphillipe.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

These weak Australian climbs will not stop the sprinters. Even Caleb Ewan could've easily won this, had he started. I think it will be a reduced sprint of about 30 riders.

Peak Sagan could've won here, sure. Anyone else no way, especially if a team races like France did last year.

 

[Nick2413]

Peak Sagan could've won here, sure. Anyone else no way, especially if a team races like France did last year.

Yeah I’d be shocked if any of the non climby sprinters have any chance at all. Even if they somehow made it to the finish in the front group they’d be completely dead on a 4K vert course.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah I’d be shocked if any of the non climby sprinters have any chance at all. Even if they somehow made it to the finish in the front group they’d be completely dead on a 4K vert course.

How dead was Bouhanni in the last lap of Ponferrada?

 

[Red Rick]

48s from the winner today is about what I expected but when I see it's Foss it's not the result I would've hoped for.

I think mainly he focuses on the road race, didn't do too much specific work for this TT and this is probably just a good training ride.