Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Fos]

Remco and Roglic will also be in the Tour, it will not be that easy, even without the presence of Vingegaard.

The truth is Pogacar is a very talented rider, but also one of the most lucky riders(luck merchant like someone said here), because he almost never face the top riders in the races he won in the last year, but also this year. For some reason he almost never faces Van der Poel, Roglic, Remco, or Vingegaard, and when he faces them he wins way way less, and sometimes gets absolutely annihilated, like he was by Vingegaard in the TOUR, Van der Poel in the worlds, and also Evenepoel in the Worlds 2022.

When was the last time Pogacar faced Roglic in a one week race? I really don't remember. Pogacar chooses very well the calendar and unfortunately, Van aert, Remco, Vingegaard, Remco and Roglic in the last years, had really bad luck.

The crash by Remco in 2020, was a shame, because Pogacar would had a lot of trouble in one day races against him.

If we look at pure power, there is some riders like Vingegaard and Remco who can push more watts than Pogacar.

It must be the simplest and most plausible explanation, the one who wins a lot is lucky and the others are better but have bad luck. Ocam's razor everywhere.

 

[Netserk]

It does, but despite the meh gradients, its still a long, long day in the saddle and lots of climbing. In terms of total kcal burned, it should be up there with the hardest of mountain stages and classics like Liege and I will not allow myself to believe that nothing will happen that day. I expect fireworks at least 5 km from the top of Foscagno, and this is not the 2023-race

It sounds like you at least have more realistic expectations than for Giau & Tre Cime.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

It does, but despite the meh gradients, its still a long, long day in the saddle and lots of climbing. In terms of total kcal burned, it should be up there with the hardest of mountain stages and classics like Liege and I will not allow myself to believe that nothing will happen that day. I expect fireworks at least 5 km from the top of Foscagno, and this is not the 2023-race

I don‘t believe it, the final climb has some very steep ramps close to 20% at very high altitude and if you attack before and can‘t turn over the gear there, you‘re not going to gain time.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Giro has broken Pogi.

P.S. Nah, he said at the rest day he has stage 15 underlined.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It sounds like you at least have more realistic expectations than for Giau & Tre Cime.

You keep diary?

 

[rm2021]

It must be the simplest and most plausible explanation, the one who wins a lot is lucky and the others are better but have bad luck. Ocam's razor everywhere.

This would be true if on the occasions when he faces top cyclists, he managed to win as much as he does when he doesn't meet them, and he hadn't been humiliated in the last tours and world championships.

 

[Red Rick]

It does, but despite the meh gradients, its still a long, long day in the saddle and lots of climbing. In terms of total kcal burned, it should be up there with the hardest of mountain stages and classics like Liege and I will not allow myself to believe that nothing will happen that day. I expect fireworks at least 5 km from the top of Foscagno, and this is not the 2023-race

Total kcal burned is also cause it's simply a 220km stage with long flats. Col de La Loze last year had almost the same total desnivel but was about 80km shorter, with a much more difficult final climb.

Guess O'Connor and Tiberi will try something. If Pogacar goes hard I can see everyone just staying put and not responding

 

[Red Rick]

It does, but despite the meh gradients, its still a long, long day in the saddle and lots of climbing. In terms of total kcal burned, it should be up there with the hardest of mountain stages and classics like Liege and I will not allow myself to believe that nothing will happen that day. I expect fireworks at least 5 km from the top of Foscagno, and this is not the 2023-race

Put this group on the 2023 Tre Cime stage and I'm absolutely convinced everyone waits for Tre Cime again.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Total kcal burned is also cause it's simply a 220km stage with long flats. Col de La Loze last year had almost the same total desnivel but was about 80km shorter, with a much more difficult final climb.

Guess O'Connor and Tiberi will try something. If Pogacar goes hard I can see everyone just staying put and not responding

Col de la Loze last year started 850 meters higher and finished 400 meters lower, though, so if there was the same amount of vertical meters up (there wasn’t) there were 1250 meters more downhill. Stage 15 is also just hard because there is little descending where you don‘t have to pedal. The average gradient for the whole 222 kilometers is actually over 1%.

 

[Red Rick]

Col de la Loze last year started 850 meters higher and finished 400 meters lower, though, so if there was the same amount of vertical meters up (there wasn’t) there were 1250 meters more downhill. Stage 15 is also just hard because there is little descending where you don‘t have to pedal. The average gradient for the whole 222 kilometers is actually over 1%.

It just means a lot more Zone 2. In terms of above total categorized climbs, it's easier.

 

[Netserk]

You keep diary?

Nah, I just have a working memory. And I recall how hilarious your reaction was to my more realistic expectations of that stage.

My expectations the day before:

Unfortunately, tomorrow won't see anyone in GC move before the last 3 km.

And your reactions:

Yes, I think its wrong, and I think its very depressing to think that way about cycling. Imagine if worst case scenario would be our expectation going into watching every race. I definitely wouldnt want to live in that world since the magic about cycling, to me, is a lot about fantasizing and expecting epic stuff. Whats gonna happen, is it gonna blow up on Giau? Maybe. But the thought sticks around enough to the point of me absolutely having to tune in at that point at the latest, and If I wasn't working, you better believe I'd watch exactly this stage in close to its full duration. If I thought nothing would happen before, why would I bother watching?

Thats why flat stages are a lot worse than mountain stages, even if nothing really happens. At least you have certain expectations beforehand, you are excited and thinks to yourself what might happen, where as a flat, certain sprint stage is straight up unwatchable for me unless its TdF. Same with hillyish stages - what break will go, will the harder sprinters try to gap the fastmen, is the last hill enough to shred it, will Wout attack etc. You have all these possible scenarios, and they are quite important in order for me to get excited about a race and want to watch it.

I don't know, but I think its unrealistic that nothing significant doesn't happen before 3 km to go. That simply cannot happen on a stage like this.

What have cycling become if thats the case? This is the hardest stage of the year in legendary terrain. Anyhow, if thats the case, I should revisit my love for cycling, but then again, I'll be as hyped as ever come July no matter how passive some of these cowards decide to approach the race.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Two very intelligent posts, I do agree. Thanks for bringing them forth again!

 

[Lequack]

Crazy hair today

 

[Nick2413]

Pogacar will want to test himself at least once on the 2 big stages, especially to see how things go with a max effort deep into a (admittedly easier) GT.

 

[Gigs_98]

We have seen time and time again that just having a lot of altitude gain does not make a stage spectacular. There is a long track record of that, which already existed long before last years Tre Cime stage. I do agree that once things kick off on a stage like this time gaps tend to become really big and it's often very exciting, but you clearly need some kind of spark to start the action.

If Pogacar goes berserk on Foscagno, yeah, it's gonna be a spectacular stage. But just like with Tre Cime last year, you have to look at what the stage actually looks like and that doesn't make me very optimistic. Maybe I could see it happening if the stage win is up for grabs, but I just don't see how such a weak climbing team controls things over the Mortirolo while still having enough fire power left to chase hard on the false flat to Bormio before doing a mountain train up Foscagno. I'm kinda looking forward to the stage anyway, but looking at it soberly, I think no serious gc action before the final 2 km is by far the most likely scenario.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The GOAT is safe. Tomorrow is a very important day, normally these super easy flat stages bring a lot of crashes.

 

[scribers]

Pogacar will want to test himself at least once on the 2 big stages, especially to see how things go with a max effort deep into a (admittedly easier) GT.

I would prefer he ride a conservative ITT and maybe go for time on the queen stage

 

[Didinho]

I would prefer he ride a conservative ITT and maybe go for time on the queen stage

Every team likes to have more references in TT performances. They don’t ride a lot of them.

 

[scribers]

Every team likes to have more references in TT performances. They don’t ride a lot of them.

Problem is exertion on the day before the queen stage. Pogi can hang with the best in ITT. Can make up big time in the queen stage or more appropriately protect against a bad day

 

[Red Rick]

It's a 32 minute ITT, you just go balls to the wall. Maybe do a slightly negative split.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's a 32 minute ITT, you just go balls to the wall. Maybe do a slightly negative split.

35 minutes.

 

[tobydawq]

We have seen time and time again that just having a lot of altitude gain does not make a stage spectacular. There is a long track record of that, which already existed long before last years Tre Cime stage. I do agree that once things kick off on a stage like this time gaps tend to become really big and it's often very exciting, but you clearly need some kind of spark to start the action.

I'm still sad at what happened to stage 20 in the 2020 race. That was one of the hardest looking profiles I've ever seen, and it was changed to a few loops around Sestrière which somehow still made gaps. But the original stage could have been completely crazy, even more (and because of) the Stelvio stage two days before.

 

[Red Rick]

We have seen time and time again that just having a lot of altitude gain does not make a stage spectacular. There is a long track record of that, which already existed long before last years Tre Cime stage. I do agree that once things kick off on a stage like this time gaps tend to become really big and it's often very exciting, but you clearly need some kind of spark to start the action.

If Pogacar goes berserk on Foscagno, yeah, it's gonna be a spectacular stage. But just like with Tre Cime last year, you have to look at what the stage actually looks like and that doesn't make me very optimistic. Maybe I could see it happening if the stage win is up for grabs, but I just don't see how such a weak climbing team controls things over the Mortirolo while still having enough fire power left to chase hard on the false flat to Bormio before doing a mountain train up Foscagno. I'm kinda looking forward to the stage anyway, but looking at it soberly, I think no serious gc action before the final 2 km is by far the most likely scenario.

Wat you don't think Rui Costa winning from the break in Le Grand Bornand in 2013 was an all time great stage?

 

[Gigs_98]

Wat you don't think Rui Costa winning from the break in Le Grand Bornand in 2013 was an all time great stage?

Remember the Madonna stage in 2020? That was insanely bad.

I'm still sad at what happened to stage 20 in the 2020 race. That was one of the hardest looking profiles I've ever seen, and it was changed to a few loops around Sestrière which somehow still made gaps. But the original stage could have been completely crazy, even more (and because of) the Stelvio stage two days before.

I don't know. If I had to guess I'd say the route change didn't change much and the first gc attacks would have come on Montgenevre instead of the second Sestriere ascent. Agnello was extremely far out and Izoard is super overrated.

 

[tobydawq]

Remember the Madonna stage in 2020? That was insanely bad.


I don't know. If I had to guess I'd say the route change didn't change much and the first gc attacks would have come on Montgenevre instead of the second Sestriere ascent. Agnello was extremely far out and Izoard is super overrated.

That's a harsh assessment.