I think this is exactly what it is and when Vinge beat him in 2022/2023, they thought they had his number. Like "we got him". They were just gonna do it again this year, despite the crash which frankly cant have mattered much in their decision to send Vinge and after seeing his performance on PdB... they definitely thought "we got him". They saw Giro and like many others on here said... its "only" the Giro. He is racing against Martinez and old man Thomas. Come to Tour, we will see who is the best. Especially, 3rd week.
From training and prep they knew he could probably win again, according to what they saw and what they thought they knew. Stage 15, Stage 19 and the last ITT was where he was gonna win the race. You dont have to be super-smart to realize that.
However, in hindsight, you could see small cracks in this imagery that they had of themselves on stage 4 already. Vinge is visibly frustrated crossing the line after blowing up on the descent and not being able to come back. The talk is... "well, we will see 3rd week". He was always gonna lose seconds in the first week. Pog is more fresh. Pog will fade in the 3rd week etc.
First ITT only loses 25 seconds to Pog. No problem. Better than they thought.
Fast forward to stage 11.... Vinge is able to reel back Pog and beat him at the line. Things looking like they are turning. Starting to look exactly like the script from the past two years. Vinge very emotional and celebratory at the finish. They are all in to destroy Pog on PdB.
In hindsight, what happened on that stage is pretty curious. Was Pog sandbagging? Did he just had a bad day and bonked? Did he just want to draw out his opponent on some Art of War type stuff, to make it so much psychologically worse for Vinge and Visma come PdB? We will probably never know for sure and no reason to speculate more on that, but it is interesting since this is what essentially breaks Vinge and Vismas spirits.
Vinge and Visma are a mess in the days after. Look sluggish and bit out of it. Like just trying to cope with the defeat at PdB, come to terms with what they thought knew... is no longer. Vinge is not the best and strongest climber anymore. They look a bit stunned and their statements/behavior is very telling the following days. All of this has to do more with psychology and the mental aspects of it. Not the crash, not that Vinge is not in very good form or shape or that he doesnt have the legs.... because is actually better than he has ever been. You have to compare him to himself. That they will now work and try improve more is a given. The level has been raised again, but that has literally nothing to do with his crash.
How he recovered from the crash, how bad his injuries really were... that just something we will never know. And how he is able to still be in the best form of his life... thats difficult to discuss here.
What you can conclude is the roles have been reversed, which Vinge and Visma probably wasnt thinking was even possible. Thats why they are now saying the things they are saying. Tom D. Zeeman etc. They are very hurt, because of their own arrogance and pride. First they were shocked/stunned. Now as the days goes by they just seem to be getting more angry about it, but thats the stages you usually have to go through.
At least Vinge is being pretty honest and saying he would have done the same thing, regarding to the stage yesterday. He will come back even better next year and the battle will ensue again. Im sure of it.
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