Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

The baby-faced monster took a well-deserved rest after the Tour and Olympics. Now he's refreshed and ready for the last part of the season prioritizing European and World Championships as well as Lombardia.

I took a week off, and went to the beach. Now I am ready to race again. It’s the first time I am doing [Plouay], and it will be an honor to race with the national Slovenian team at the world championships.

He doesn't regard himself as a star

People recognize me on the street, but it’s not like I’m a pop star. I’m just a bike rider, I enjoy racing my bike. I am living my dream right now. I’m excited to race again

And last but not least, he signalled an intention to race and win Giro and Vuelta. I think that Giro-Vuelta double is considered for 2022.

I like to go to different races that I have not raced yet, I’d like to race the Giro and Vuelta, two races I have not won yet. There are a lot of races I can still win.

Refreshed Tadej Pogačar targets ambitious fall with eyes on rainbow jersey

European and world championships and debut at Il Lombardia are targets in second half of 2021.

www.velonews.com

 

[Red Rick]

The baby-faced monster took a well-deserved rest after the Tour and Olympics. Now he's refreshed and ready for the last part of the season prioritizing European and World Championships as well as Lombardia.

I took a week off, and went to the beach. Now I am ready to race again. It’s the first time I am doing [Plouay], and it will be an honor to race with the national Slovenian team at the world championships.

He doesn't regard himself as a star

People recognize me on the street, but it’s not like I’m a pop star. I’m just a bike rider, I enjoy racing my bike. I am living my dream right now. I’m excited to race again

And last but not least, he showed an intention to race and win Giro and Vuelta. I think that Giro-Vuelta double is considered for 2022.

I like to go to different races that I have not raced yet, I’d like to race the Giro and Vuelta, two races I have not won yet. There are a lot of races I can still win.

Tour of the Gila canceled for 2021 due to COVID-19 concerns

Organizers of New Mexico's Tour of the Gila have called off the 2021 edition due to rising COVID-19 rates.

www.velonews.com

Imagine how nervous a 1st week Tour peleton gets if Pogacar isn't there. 20 GC dudes who think it's now or never.


But he's going to the Tour surely.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Imagine how nervous a 1st week Tour peleton gets if Pogacar isn't there. 20 GC dudes who think it's now or never.


But he's going to the Tour surely.

I'm not sure about that. He defended the Tour, proving it was not a fluke. He showed he's the boss. I think it's natural to try Giro-Vuelta double now and he'd like to do it. Hopefully he won't become a one-GT guy. As for the Tour without him: Primoz should ride flat stages with pillows attached to his body to make sure he finally wins the race.

 

[Pinot's goat]

He never specified that he wants to ride bot Giro and Vuelta in the same year. I think he will ride the Tour every year plus one other grand tour from now on apart from maybe Olmypic year or a world championship like Innsbruck where he is the favourite.

 

[SHAD0W93]

He never specified that he wants to ride bot Giro and Vuelta in the same year. I think he will ride the Tour every year plus one other grand tour from now on apart from maybe Olmypic year or a world championship like Innsbruck where he is the favourite.

It would be a good test on doing two GTs in the same year though, if he succeeds at winning or podiuming then he can go all in at the Tour and do Vuelta. Then the next year Giro and Tour.

 

[KZD]

I would really like if he did Giro and Tour next season but I think it will be the Tour and possibly the Vuelta as Almeida doesn't offer enough guarantees to be a Tour contender.

It will be interesting to see how he goes in the European Championships TT. Not expecting him to beat Ganna or Küng in a flat course but he might still have a medal chance.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He never specified that he wants to ride bot Giro and Vuelta in the same year. I think he will ride the Tour every year plus one other grand tour from now on apart from maybe Olmypic year or a world championship like Innsbruck where he is the favourite.

Performing Giro+Vuelta double is more realistic than other doubles and he should try it first (his coach spoke about it some time ago). He skipped Vuelta again for a reason - Tour+Vuelta is way more difficult and Giro+Tour is close to impossible.

 

[Red Rick]

He isn't just gonna skip the Tour IMO. I thinkt he most likely scenario is just going for the Tour, then just winging it in the Vuelta.

 

[Lequack]

I think thing race was just a bit too much for him after a lengthy break. Still exciting to watch until he bonked.

 

[gunara]

He 'only' won 2 Tours and never lost any, it'll take more win or loss until he jeopardize the chance to improve the record.

Getting dropped today, just another boring GT specialist that sucks at one day race...Not

 

[bNator]

Skipping the Tour when you have a high probability of winning makes no sense from a business perspective. Tour as an event transcends the cycling fans, transcends the cycling world. It is the only real global cycling event. It brings tons of money. He’s never going to skip it unless he can’t win it...

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I finally had some time now to try to get a reasonable realistic view on Tadej‘s performance on July 3rd this year, the stage to Le Grand Bornand.

Before, I had known what might be realistic numbers for Roglic vs Pogacar, ITT Vuelta 2019 vs ITT Td F PdBF 2020:
Vuelta Roglic 5,4 Watts/kg vs Pogacar 5,2 Watts/kg, PdBF Roglic 5,7 Watts/kg vs Pogacar 5,9-6,0 Watts/kg.
Regarding Watts/kg, in PdBF ITT 2020, Pogacar was likely 3-5% better than Roglic - which is a lot (comparison of two of the three best GC riders in the world, both in top shape on this final weekend of the TdF 2020).

So in the morning of July 3rd 2021, everyone knew what Tadej is capable of, and his most important opponent Roglic was already badly injured.
The numbers Tadej then achieved this afternoon are well-known, but I wanted to do some own calculations, to get a better picture.
On this stage, Tadej attacked the elite GC group with ca. 31 kms to go, and finally gained 3 mins 20 secs on them. That sounds A LOT of time gain on a relatively short distance.
Let‘s say, he gained 3 mins on 30 kms.

Ca. half of this distance was downhill. It was a wet day. Tadej certainly didn‘t risk too much in the descents, and did not benefit of slipstream, unlike his opponents. To make things easier, let‘s say, Tadej didn‘t gain any time on the 15 kms of the descents.

So Tadej gains 180 seconds on 15 uphill kilometers. That makes a gain of 12 seconds per uphill kilometer.
If the chasing elite GC group (Carapaz, Vingegaard, Mas etc) did one kilometer in (let’s say) 2 mins 12 secs, Tadej did 2 mins.

(Before, I compared Watts/kg; now I compare speed.)

So let’s say Tadej did every kilometer (of these 15) in 120 secs, and the elite chasing group in 132 secs:

120/132=ca 0,91;
132/120=1,1.

So Tadej, on halb of the Romme and on full Colombiere, developped 9-10% more speed (!) than Carapaz et al., or, his average speed numbers were 9-10% higher.

That absolutely is A LOT (certainly Roglic was not there - but I can‘t imagine Roglic would have had a chance on this day).

So on PdBF 2020, Pogacar‘s watts/kg numbers were 3-5% higher than Roglic‘s, and on July 3rd, 2021, Pogacar‘s uphill speed numbers on the last 15 uphill kms were 9-10% higher than Carapaz‘s.

Maybe these two performances in Tadej‘s still young pro career show what an exceptional rider this is. At his season highlights, he‘s able to produce performances which are ONE LEVEL ABOVE the rest of the very few world class GC riders (probably including Roglic, and probably even including Bernal).

 

[CyclistAbi]

I doubt Pogačar wouldn't do Tour 2022. The bigger question is will he do Giro 2022. He would like to do Giro and UAE now might have enough cyclists to have reasonable support on two GTs. If you would ask Pogačar then Giro 2022 likely yes. If you would ask UAE then Giro 2022 likely no.

We'll see.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I doubt Pogačar wouldn't do Tour 2022. The bigger question is will he do Giro 2022. He would like to do Giro and UAE now might have enough cyclists to have reasonable support on two GTs. If you would ask Pogačar then Giro 2022 likely yes. If you would ask UAE then Giro 2022 likely no.

We'll see.

And I doubt Pogacar has realistic chances to win the Tour having ridden the Giro. It's almost impossible, especially against fresh Roglic (if he stays on his bike). Keep in mind that Pog gave up on Tour-Vuelta double for the second year running. If he chooses the Giro indeed then the Vuelta is his next GT.

 

[Red Rick]

I think he peaked early in the Tour this year. That don't help when doubling up.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think he peaked early in the Tour this year. That don't help when doubling up.

If Pog enters the Giro undertrained at 70% of his form then maybe. His base level is high. Then again, winning the Giro could be difficult in this case. But this double is so difficult for a reason, Giro is so physically demanding and the Tour requires the highest level.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Maybe both will go after the double. But somehow i doubt that will happen in 2022.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Think he'll do the Tour and maybe Vuelta next year, doesn't make sense for UAE to have him not at his best at the Tour when all the attention will be if he gets the threepeat and how the rematch with a non-injured Roglic goes.
When he has his third crown I think he might attempt the Giro tour double in 2023 like Contador and Froome after winning three in a row.

 

[CyclistAbi]

As long as he will be able to defend it i feel that Pogačar will do the Tour as the first GT in the season. The only reason we are talking about the Giro is he expressed desire to ride the Giro. After he fails to defend the Tour title for the first time then i guess all options are open. But still until he is considered to be the highest in the UAE roster he will likely need to do the Tour.

Unless i guess there are reasonable folks at UAE that take personal wishes of their riders into consideration. And don't care just about the money.

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

I do not think he will do a giro-tour double soon. It is extremely hard to combine them and he is just only about to turn 23.

He expressed his desire to ride a Giro but that wont happen next year in my opinion.

This year the double tour vuelta was made almost impossible with the olympics on another continent. I think he will go to the vuelta next year and make it his first double grand tour year.

 

[Red Rick]

I feel like Tour favorites always talk about doing the Giro before making the schedule and going to the Tour.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I feel like Tour favorites always talk about doing the Giro before making the schedule and going to the Tour.

The organizers will convince Tadej by including a stage in Slovenian Alps (ending in Komenda) and promising snowy weather on Stelvio.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Signing of Almeida is basically the only thing that prevents me to say i am 100% sure seeing Pogačar at Giro-Tour double in 2022 is not possible.

We'll see.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Signing of Almeida is basically the only thing that prevents me to say i am 100% sure seeing Pogačar at Giro-Tour double in 2022 is not possible.

We'll see.

You mean the opposite? So Almeida can captain the Giro? A very sophisticated sentence up there…

 

[Luthor]

There is a small possibility UAE could consider a Giro Vuelta double. It's the easiest double and definitely doable without risking of burning out. At the same time he could become the youngest to hold all 3 GTs, something that Bernal also has the chance at the current Vuelta. That's quite an interesting record, and if he does it next year, it would be a record very hard to beat.

While Tour is the most important overall, Giro and Vuelta are beating Tour in terms of viewership in their own countries and maybe some others as well. If you combine them, the viewership difference is not that large. After already winning 2 TdFs and therefore already well known to TdF public, I think the reach for new viewers would be higher with Giro-Vuelta. You would also get 2 big focal points in terms of coverage.

I still think he would go for Tour but going for Giro-Vuelta also makes sense.