Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Big Doopie]

This is just meaningless stats with tiny sample size and from days that are barely relevant to todays cycling.

Wow. That seems like an awfully strong reaction to a simple anecdotal comment.

Froome, Contador, Indurain, Lemond, Fignon, Merckx… sorry this is soooooo irrelevant to you. However, I do think it says something about the mental resolve to stay on top and the fact that someone always comes along who is better.

 

[Big Doopie]

Eddy Merckx would like to freshen up your memory.

And I would like to freshen up yours. Merckx never won the TDF again after Thevenet stopped his string at five. He did not compete in 1973.

Your welcome.

On the side, I find it funny that even such an innocuous anecdotal post can make posters react so strongly and…incorrectly.

 

[Red Rick]

And I would like to freshen up yours. Merckx never won the TDF again after Thevenet stopped his string at five. He did not compete in 1973.

Your welcome.

On the side, I find it funny that even such an innocuous anecdotal post can make posters react so strongly and…incorrectly.

ok.

 

[tobydawq]

And I would like to freshen up yours. Merckx never won the TDF again after Thevenet stopped his string at five. He did not compete in 1973.

Your welcome.

On the side, I find it funny that even such an innocuous anecdotal post can make posters react so strongly and…incorrectly.

It just seems a bit bizarre that you basically say Pogacar can never win the Tour again if he at the age of 23 fails to do so next year.

The stat in itself is quite interesting but I also don't think we can use it to that much. Also, Fignon was eight seconds from winning again five years after winning the first two times. I know he didn't actually win but it's very close to toppling the stat.

 

[Big Doopie]

Are you sure that’s not what you wanted to read into my post? I don’t believe I said that this was an absolute rule that had never been broken. It’s just interesting, I think. I was simply pointing out a little known fact, that’s all. And that Pog may want to strike as long as the iron is hot. Particularly since the TDF weighs so disproportionally in a riders career. Early yet, but Pog also has a shot at being the all time record holder

I grant you that Pog is likely to be a different case simply because he is so young. However he may not want to miss on every opportunity available to him. Merckx still rues that he stayed away from the 1973 TDF to this day. Ask Froome in a few years if he doesn’t rue not trading in one of his greatest victories in the Giro for fifth Tour de France?

Yes, Fignon lost by just 8 seconds.

But he lost.

That is the exact nature of the anecdote.

 

[Salvarani]

I think age is the most likely reason for most of those multiple winners never won again, and they had a natural decline. With someone new taking over.

Sure, Pog might never win the Tour again. But it probably wouldnt be because of that reason, already.

 

[tobydawq]

Are you sure that’s not what you wanted to read into my post? I don’t believe I said that this was an absolute rule that had never been broken. It’s just interesting, I think. I was simply pointing out a little known fact, that’s all. And that Pog may want to strike as long as the iron is hot. Particularly since the TDF weighs so disproportionally in a riders career. Early yet, but Pog also has a shot at being the all time record holder

I grant you that Pog is likely to be a different case simply because he is so young. However he may not want to miss on every opportunity available to him. Merckx still rues that he stayed away from the 1973 TDF to this day. Ask Froome in a few years if he doesn’t rue not trading in one of his greatest victories in the Giro for fifth Tour de France?

Yes, Fignon lost by just 8 seconds.

But he lost.

That is the exact nature of the anecdote.

On the Watts Occurring podcast, Froome said that his Giro win is the one he is proudest of of all his wins.

I think you're looking at the world a little too much TdF-centrically.

 

[EliseeReclus]

Little known fact: once a multiple TDF winner loses, they very rarely ever win it again.

Isn't this kind of meaningless - every multiple time Tour winner will at some point stop winning it and unless they don't ride the tour again after their final victory (only Maes and Coppi have done this) they fulfil your criteria.

Even if we take all 20 multiple time winners (leaving Pog out of it), 11 of them (Anquetil, Hinault, Froome, Thys, Lambot, Leducq, Magne, Maes, Bartali, Coppi, Thevenet) lost a Tour de France that they entered between their first and last victories, so even if this statistic has any meaning it shows that it is indeed very common for a multiple time Tour de France winner to lose a Tour and come back to win again.

 

[Big Doopie]

On the Watts Occurring podcast, Froome said that his Giro win is the one he is proudest of of all his wins.

I think you're looking at the world a little too much TdF-centrically.

you are probably right...

probably not the best example.

tho i would still be interested in his (honest) answer when he personally realizes that he will never win his fifth TDF. ;-)

 

[Big Doopie]

Isn't this kind of meaningless - every multiple time Tour winner will at some point stop winning it and unless they don't ride the tour again after their final victory (only Maes and Coppi have done this) they fulfil your criteria.

Even if we take all 20 multiple time winners (leaving Pog out of it), 11 of them (Anquetil, Hinault, Froome, Thys, Lambot, Leducq, Magne, Maes, Bartali, Coppi, Thevenet) lost a Tour de France that they entered between their first and last victories, so even if this statistic has any meaning it shows that it is indeed very common for a multiple time Tour de France winner to lose a Tour and come back to win again.

Froome?

 

[EliseeReclus]

Froome?

2014?

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

I don't know how anything statistics would show how Tadej's career will evolve.

Sure he could never win another tour. He could lose one, and then win one more.

Because of his age and talent, it is hard to predict.

 

[Big Doopie]

I think age is the most likely reason for most of those multiple winners never won again, and they had a natural decline. With someone new taking over.

Sure, Pog might never win the Tour again. But it probably wouldnt be because of that reason, already.

i would agree. age, luck and health (and the arrival of someone better) all factor.

but why does age often become a factor...? Precisely because the rider missed some opportunities during their career (often due to health).

age also becomes a factor because the mental needed. indurain lost his 6th because he lost some of the mental (that likely, along with the weather, contributed to his being a little overweight - then notice his complete mental drive loss in the following Vuelta precipitating his retirement). in 1977, Merckx would actually smoke the occasional cigarette (!!). One could argue he had also lost the mental part after his defeat in 1975. fignon probably didn't win a third, not because of 1989, but because of the injuries sustained after 1984.

there is a finite window, it appears.

of age, health, luck, etc...

tho Pog certainly seems to be the exception because of the young age at which he started.

then again Fignon was a mere year older when he won his second...

 

[Big Doopie]

Isn't this kind of meaningless - every multiple time Tour winner will at some point stop winning it and unless they don't ride the tour again after their final victory (only Maes and Coppi have done this) they fulfil your criteria.

not winning again after your final win does not preclude winning at least once more after being defeated.

but it is rare, clearly.

now what if you take away the "multiple" part of the equation.

now you only have 11 previous winners in the entire history of the TDF who have managed to win again after being beaten...

in other words...all those single winners have (obviously) never been able to repeat once they then get defeated.

will bernal break that, i wonder?

 

[Rackham]

I'm just reading the last page... i.e. is the Primoz Roglic win in the Tour 2022 already causing a pre-emptive meltdown?

I'm sure Pogacar will be fine. He's so young he could take a five year hiatus & still win number 3 at the age Lance Armstrong "won" his first.

 

[Offline]

What is Pogacar's program between now and Il Lombardia?

 

[Big Doopie]

What is Pogacar's program between now and Il Lombardia?

domination? ;-)

 

[EliseeReclus]

not winning again after your final win does not preclude winning at least once more after being defeated.

but it is rare, clearly.

now what if you take away the "multiple" part of the equation.

now you only have 11 previous winners in the entire history of the TDF who have managed to win again after being beaten...

in other words...all those single winners have (obviously) never been able to repeat once they then get defeated.

will bernal break that, i wonder?

I'm not disputing any of this, I just don't think it really provides anything of explanatory value as it's basically a tautology - it is like saying "Tadej Pogacar will keep winning the Tour de France until he loses the Tour de France" in the same way that every previous Tour de France winner has kept winning the Tour de France until they lost, whether this is 1,2,3 or more consecutive tours.

Equally, it is impossible to be a one-time winner of the Tour de France who wins again, as when you win again you are a two time winner rather than a one time winner. There is nothing here for Bernal to break, he will just join Lambot, Leducq, Magne, Maes, Bartali, Coppi and Thevenet as two time winners with at least one loss in between.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Back on the double, Pogacar should do Tour-Vuelta the next two years and see how he performs with going for GC in two GTs and at 25 or 26 do Giro-Tour when theoretically his endurance would be higher. No point jumping into a double attempt when he has yet to ride 2 GTs in the same year and does not know how he will perform. A big asset he has for Tour defenses and double attempts is that Ineos and JV grinding out a pace helps him as well as he just follows the wheels and can put in late attacks and be up there in the TT. Ineos with Carapaz and Bernal and/or JV with Roglic and Vingegaard both up in GC and would be the way to go to beat him in the current state barring injuries.

 

[Rackham]

Notwithstanding a vengeful former ski jumper, Tadej Pogacar's biggest rival is himself.

It's a cliché at this point, but in his case, it's valid, i.e. he's only 22 years old. He's barely an adult. Throw a huge contract into that, life's usual dose of distractions (especially for a star) & the idea a professional bike rider can remain dominant in the Tour de France (with all the sacrifices required to maintain that level of fitness) until he's 30+ seems totally remote.

It's one thing for guys like Ronaldo & Messi to maintain that level (because football is a different sort of sport), but pro bike racing is so gruelling & so demanding, we usually don't see sustained periods of dominance (hence why 5 in a row is the current record, Lance excluded).

 

[SHAD0W93]

Notwithstanding a vengeful former ski jumper, Tadej Pogacar's biggest rival is himself.

It's a cliché at this point, but in his case, it's valid, i.e. he's only 22 years old. He's barely an adult. Throw a huge contract into that, life's usual dose of distractions (especially for a star) & the idea a professional bike rider can remain dominant in the Tour de France (with all the sacrifices required to maintain that level of fitness) until he's 30+ seems totally remote.

It's one thing for guys like Ronaldo & Messi to maintain that level (because football is a different sort of sport), but pro bike racing is so gruelling & so demanding, we usually don't see sustained periods of dominance (hence why 5 in a row is the current record, Lance excluded).

I think a bigger mark against him is the history of star youth riders. Those who come in and compete at such a high level when they’re young. Countless times we say wait until they’re older and improve when in their prime but most fade when older as they were in their prime at that young age. He is a different case in that he is already one of the best climber and TT and doesn’t have to improve in areas like other youth riders.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

b) Yes
a) What he really needs is 1st MTF on Etna + 40 kms od hilly TT + MTT in the third week. And not much climbing above 2800.

Fortunately Stelvio is barely at 2758 m ASL and if the weather is snowy there Pogi will crush the peleton like Coppi did in his heyday.

As for doing doubles he is reluctant to do Tour + Vuelta double for the second year running so I wouldn't count on Giro + Tour anytime soon but I would like him to do Giro + Vuelta next year.

 

[Rackham]

I think a bigger mark against him is the history of star youth riders. Those who come in and compete at such a high level when they’re young. Countless times we say wait until they’re older and improve when in their prime but most fade when older as they were in their prime at that young age. He is a different case in that he is already one of the best climber and TT and doesn’t have to improve in areas like other youth riders.

And I don't know whether that's a plus or a negative, i.e. at least with the riders who needed to improve something, they could remain grounded & focused on that. With Pogacar, he just dominates everything.

And IMO he needs Roglic & Bernal. But especially Roglic, i.e. too many Tours like the 2021 edition (i.e. with a 5 minute lead overall) won't do his motivation much good. If that sort of demolition continues, he's going to need to adopt a Michael Schumacher type mindset where domination for the sake of domination becomes his goal (but that of course comes with its own downside, i.e. such sportsmen become unpopular real fast). And something else to consider is the fact past Tour de France "dominators" like Indurain (& yes) Lance had time against them, i.e. their battle for 5 Tour wins at the time was waged partially against opponents... but mostly against their own body clock ticking the years away.

Pogacar has no such concern.

 

[SHAD0W93]

And I don't know whether that's a plus or a negative, i.e. at least with the riders who needed to improve something, they could remain grounded & focused on that. With Pogacar, he just dominates everything.

And IMO he needs Roglic & Bernal. But especially Roglic, i.e. too many Tours like the 2021 edition (i.e. with a 5 minute lead overall) won't do his motivation much good. If that sort of demolition continues, he's going to need to adopt a Michael Schumacher type mindset where domination for the sake of domination becomes his goal (but that of course comes with its own downside, i.e. such sportsmen become unpopular real fast). And something else to consider is the fact past Tour de France "dominators" like Indurain (& yes) Lance had time against them, i.e. their battle for 5 Tour wins at the time was waged partially against opponents... but mostly against their own body clock ticking the years away.

Pogacar has no such concern.

That’s a fair point but me personally I would rather win dominating than close or scraping by. Sure the later is more entertaining and gives you more of a rush but having a bigger buffer in my opinion is more rewarding.

 

[Big Doopie]

Equally, it is impossible to be a one-time winner of the Tour de France who wins again, as when you win again you are a two time winner rather than a one time winner.

If u read my post I am simply pointing out that all the one-time winners obviously lost the next time. But that also means they likely failed to repeat after losing (Zoetemelk, Ocana, Riis, Van Impe, etc. etc. )

There is nothing here for Bernal to break, he will just join Lambot, Leducq, Magne, Maes, Bartali, Coppi and Thevenet as two time winners with at least one loss in between.

Which is rare. That is my only point.

All I was noting was Pog may want to focus on the TDF to see if he can tie or break the most important record in cycling. If he tries to do the giro Tdf double, he may struggle to win the TDF… at which point winning it again in future years appears rare in these cases. Why risk it? Just focus on the TDF. Throw in the Vuelta. And once u have taken six, go for the giro.

Okay. Done on this. Arguing in circles it seems.