Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogi needs the Vuelta to complete the GT's

Vuelta enables schedule flexibility. If he feels gassed after the Tour then they will decide to rest and focus on the WC defence instead of going tired to the Vuelta (with a bigger chance of losing) and missing WC peak. Tour is not the Giro (as Vingegaard is not Thomas), the fatigue will be considerably bigger.

 

[KZD]

Depends what happens in the Tour. If he wins it without exhausting himself then Vuelta is on the cards. If he goes too deep then I think he will skip it to focus on the WC.

I agree that he should only ride the Vuelta if he feels ready for it, however if the Worlds are moved to Switzerland, the likelihood of him riding the Vuelta increases as he would lose less time in travel and to acclimatise.

 

[YavorD]

Vuelta enables schedule flexibility. If he feels gassed after the Tour then they will decide to rest and focus on the WC defence instead of going tired to the Vuelta (with a bigger chance of losing) and missing WC peak. Tour is not the Giro (as Vingegaard is not Thomas), the fatigue will be considerably bigger.

And not just that. With Vingegaard going to the Vuelta don't see how he would go through 2 hard battles with Vingegaard. before the WC.

Now if Vingegaard didn't go to the Vuelta, he would win it easily and even after a hard Tour wouldn't be massive problem IMHO

 

[Peyroteo94]

They will see after the Tour. Vuelta's route is perfect for Pogi. A lot of unipuertos with flat roads and a final 30 minutes effort. This is perfect for training. A peak Pogi is unbeatable in this kind of route.

 

[scribers]

I agree that he should only ride the Vuelta if he feels ready for it, however if the Worlds are moved to Switzerland, the likelihood of him riding the Vuelta increases as he would lose less time in travel and to acclimatise.

Call me crazy but the secret Swiss replacement parcours looks harder. Those WC circuits look brutal

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Call me crazy but the secret Swiss replacement parcours looks harder. Those WC circuits look brutal

It's only for climbers actually. Pogi will annihilate the field most likely (unless Vingo suddenly appears in top GT form).

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's only for climbers actually. Pogi will annihilate the field most likely (unless Vingo suddenly appears in top GT form).

But Slovenia can be in trouble in this route. That climb with 8 km is perfect for strong climbers to go and Slovenia doesn't have the strength to control this kinda of breakaway.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But Slovenia can be in trouble in this route. That climb with 8 km is perfect for strong climbers to go and Slovenia doesn't have the strength to control this kinda of breakaway.

Then Teddy will join this breakaway leaving the control to other teams!

 

[Peyroteo94]

Then Teddy will join this breakaway and leave the control to other teams!

No one will help Pogacar. In this type of route, he is the massive and only favourite. That final climb is similar to Civiglio, Pogacar will crush everyone without mercy and if he is close to peak shape, he will win this race with a 90 km attack and 4 minutes gap.

 

[James M]

It's only for climbers actually. Pogi will annihilate the field most likely (unless Vingo suddenly appears in top GT form).

Do you know Vingegaard stats on races above 200km? stats on one day races? You can wish for it all you want and hope, that okei, doesnt mean its likely and he wouldnt even be second fav on this were just glacing and neglecting facts now to a whole new level.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Do you know Vingegaard stats on races above 200km? stats on one day races? You can wish for it all you want and hope, that okei, doesnt mean its likely and he wouldnt even be second fav on this were just glacing and neglecting facts now to a whole new level.

He would be the second favorite easily (if in top form OFC). This course is his best (and maybe only?) chance for a WC medal. Make no mistake, in terms of pure w/kg he kills everybody except Pogi. And he doesn't need long stage races to do it. This course is hard enough to make it simply a climbers competition. Wasn't he the only guy who followed Pogi on a mole hill at the Tour start? Pure w/kg, no stage-race fatigue yet.

 

[James M]

He would be the second favorite easily (if in top form OFC). This course is his best (and maybe only?) chance for a WC medal. Make no mistake, in terms of pure w/kg he kills everybody except Pogi. And he doesn't need long stage races to do it. This course is hard enough.

Ofc his best chance, course is good for him and yes he has second highest w/kg but Im honestly not so sure, his stats in one day races are abysmal and even more so long races above 200km that would worrie me for his case and this is over 250 km, to say he would do good without managing a top 10 or top 5 in a single big monument/classic before well its ballsy.

Dont get me wrong would love to see him there, even more so love for him to do well and become 2 or whatever but its far from a given all im saying. Its not the same as in a GT and Vingegaard recovery is one of his biggest strenght you all know that.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ofc his best chance, course is good for him and yes he has second highest w/kg but Im honestly not so sure, his stats no one day races are abysmal and even more so long races above 200km that would worrie me for his case and this is over 250 km, to say he would do good without managing a top 10 or top 5 in a single monument/classic before well its ballsy.

Dont get me wrong would love to see him there, even more so love for him to do well and become 2 or whatever but its far from a given all im saying.

Look at the end of my post. I added something (reference to Tour stage 2, no stage-racing fatigue yet). As for long 200+ km races we are yet to see him contesting them in really good form.

 

[Netserk]

As for long 200+ km races we are yet to see him contesting them in really good form.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yes but I meant one-day races in this case. My point being that a hard-enough one-day race won't be different from a hard stage 1 of a stage-race, with Vingo being top2 favourite.

 

[James M]

Look at the end of my post. I added something (reference to Tour stage 2, no stage-racing fatigue yet). As for long 200+ km races we are yet to see him contesting them in really good form.

Somewhat true look I dont disagree that much all im saying its signs to point out maybe its not his cup of tea, also dont need to tell you about the difference betwen GT and one day races, im obviously not questioning his w/kg thats facts and not disputable.

But you basing ur prediction on hope or what you think which are okei btw - like you said okei yet to see him in good form try, do you know even he is capable of reaching a top form outside 3 weeks in the Tour when in fact he hasnt before? based on what? Same goes for races above 250km based on what? You get my point a whole lot of hope/thinking not based on facts thats all, it might be the case still but far from a given he even would have the strenght to compete with the likes for Evenepoel and others in this format.

 

[James M]

@Krzysztof_O and btw I would actually love nothing else more maybe in cycling terms than for he to prove he can do that, just so were clear. That would be truly epic if he could but it remains to be seen kinda thing still thats all from my point of view. His stats on it are to abysmal to ignore it completely at least.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Somewhat true look I dont disagree that much all im saying its signs to point out maybe its not his cup of tea, also dont need to tell you about the difference betwen GT and one day races, im obviously not questioning his w/kg thats facts and not disputable.

But you basing ur prediction on hope or what you think which are okei btw - like you said okei yet to see him in good form try, do you know even he is capable of reaching a top form outside 3 weeks in the Tour when in fact he hasnt before? based on what? Same goes for races above 250km based on what? You get my point a whole lot of hope/thinking not based on facts thats all, it might be the case still but far from a given he even would have the strenght to compete with the likes for Evenepoel and others in this format.

Fair enough about his form at the WC, he may not ever reach his peak in that event. My main point being that a hard enough one-day race won't be much different from a very hard mountain stage at the start of a stage race - Vingo would be top2 favorite anyway. And this WC course is better for Vingo than Liege or Lombardy.

 

[James M]

Fair enough about his form at the WC, he may not ever reach his peak in that event. My main point being that a hard enough one-day race won't be different from a very hard mountain stage at the start of a GT - Vingo would be top2 favourite anyway. And this WC course is better for Vingo than Liege or Lombardy.

He has yet to show he is capable of it, again not saying it cant happen or I dont want it, its still hasnt happened before so. Obviously agree there its weird in that sense he without a doubt has the best w/kg outside Pog thats never the question mark I have towards him in this sense, its everything else. Also one of his biggest strenght are resistence to fatigue, not pure strenght.

Im just gonne say I hope it happen, would love it as much as you, truly would. But Contador one of the greats how many times did he ride lombardia (yes this may be better suited indeed) without winning it despite being the best GT rider even for many years, point is these things arent automatic and the same at all.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He has yet to show he is capable of it, again not saying it cant happen or I dont want it, its still hasnt happened before so. Obviously agree there its weird in that sense he without a doubt has the best w/kg outside Pog thats never the question mark I have towards him in this sense, its everything else. Also one of his biggest strenght are resistence to fatigue, not pure strenght.

Im just gonne say I hope it happen, would love it as much as you, truly would. But Contador one of the greats how many times did he ride lombardia (yes this may be better suited indeed) without winning it despite being the best GT rider even for many years, point is these things arent automatic and the same at all.

The climbs of this WC (if it happens) are actually similar to those in the Basque Country: very steep and lasting 10-15 minutes (plus one mamooth). What do you think would happen if a route like that appeared on stage 1 or stage 2 or the Basque race as a queen stage with Vingo in 2023 form? Would he crack due to too many climbs or crush the rest? (assuming no Pog). I think I know the answer.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He doesn't care about classics and he is not that strong after 6 hours on the bike.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The climbs of this WC (if it happens) are actually similar to those in the Basque Country: very steep and lasting 10-15 minutes (plus one mamooth). What do you think would happen if a route like that appeared on stage 1 or stage 2 or the Basque race as a queen stage with Vingo in 2023 form? Would he crack due to too many climbs or crush the rest? (assuming no Pog). I think I know the answer.

This is not about the type of climb. This is about race's lenght. Vingegaard can't maintain his power after 6 hours of race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This is not about the type of climb. This is about race's lenght. Vingegaard can't maintain his power after 6 hours of race.

Disagree. The race is a lot about terrain. Vingo is superior in w/kg department so on those kind of steep climbs his fatigue resistance should be (relatively vs the competition) better than on shorter Liege climbs or shallower Lombardy climbs, even if generally his post 6h performance isn't the best (I think this hypothesis is still not completely proved, time will tell).

 

[James M]

The climbs of this WC (if it happens) are actually similar to those in the Basque Country: very steep and lasting 10-15 minutes. What do you think would happen if a route like that appeared on stage 1 or stage 2 or the Basque race as a queen stage with Vingo in 2023 form? Would he crack due to too many climbs or crush the rest? (assuming no Pog). I think I know the answer.

But above all its the form part, not every rider are capable of that and its no sign he is so far, and noone peaks for basque so its not very relevant. Obvious I agree but you get my point im sure, surely you cant just neglect it completely when its no sign of it in this format which is completely different, thats all.

This is not about the type of climb. This is about race's lenght. Vingegaard can't maintain his power after 6 hours of race.

Exactly.

 

[Peyroteo94]

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