The TDF favorites will need to drop him on the climbs, because else he's going to romp away and snatch a lot of boni seconds.What a ride again today. Such panache to his riding style as well, not afraid to attack from far away.
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Red Rick
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If he can snatch bonus seconds on the harder climbs he's simply the better climber. Otherwise don't think there's much a guy like Bernal can do to take the boni's off him on the punchier finishes. I also don'think boni's are gonna matter for Pogacar if he can't drop the ITTers on the big climbs anyway.
How many ITT km's are there in the TDF? Not a whole lot iirc. If he takes 5 seconds +10 seconds boni on mountain finishes, that will give him a buffer. I'm not saying he'll win the Tour, but a few of those finishes can make the difference between 3rd or 5th.
Red Rick
BANNED
Yes. I don't think he'll end up winning it, so that wasn't what i was getting it with my post. But being able to take seconds out of the competition with a late attack and boniseconds, it also gives you a tactical advantage. Not having to ride and letting the competition do the work in certain scenarios, they need to drop him, not the other way around, etc.
Red Rick
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Red Rick
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38 race days before the Tour, he had 62 last year in total
I agree, Paris-Nice and Sanremo are the most logical to skip
I agree, Paris-Nice and Sanremo are the most logical to skip
Imho Amstel could be cut as well. I can't really see him competing for victory there, and given the fact that it's only a week after Itzulia, i don't think he really needs the race to prepare for Flèche and Liège (which should suit him a lot more than Amstel).
Bonimenier
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Last year the gap from 2 to 3 was 20s, gap from 3 to 4 was 25s. These are definitely gaps that can be influenced by boni's.
You aren't getting it - When Ineos get the lead in the TDF which is usually early in the race, they sit up and allow breakaways to take the stage.
Bonimenier
BANNED
And you don't think UAE will ride for Pogacar when they think he'll have a good shot at a stage victory? Especially when boniseconds turn out to be important. Ineos isn't the only team in the peloton.
You mean in general? Apparently none of them will ride this year's TDF. But in general, they also brought in Ardilla and Covi and McNulty so they should be able to built a strong squad around him in the future.
Teams have not done it in the last 8 years, except for rare circumstances - GC riders don't need to win the stage to take time on GC rivals.
De la Cruz could never make the Ineos TDF team and neither could Dombrowski - In fact, Dombrowski has never ridden the TDF - It's not about having a team full of climbers to beat Ineos - It's about making the stages tougher before the climbs to weaken the Ineos train, so ideally, i'd give up one or two mountain domestic helpers for flat land grunt.
What a silly statement. If you are placed withing spitting distance of the rider in front of you in GC, and there is a stage which is tailormade for you, where you can take 5 or 10 seconds on your rival as well as an extra 10 boni seconds, you would be a fool not to have your team control the race.
Surely having a couple of climbers is to protect your leader if has problems, including bike swithces etc, moving him back to the group etc
This.
I can think of Uran only having Poels or Dumoulin in the Vuelta and Giro, Krushweak in Giro; etc.
Movistar has tried that team full of climbers to beat Ineos/Sky a few times. Closest they got with that was 2015 when they placed riders on the podium in 2nd and 3rd.
And the point is when Ineos control the peleton at the TDF, once they have the yellow jersey, they let the break take the stage - It's up to other teams to defy convention, control the peleton to get bonus seconds - You can still make time on a GC rival without bonus seconds - Little I can do, if you dont understand the premise.
You are completely correct that, like in this case, one can not help it when another is simply too dense to understand the premise. On this we can agree. Unfortunately, in this case, i have some bad news for you...
We were discussing Pogacar's kick or punch to win sprints on MTF, not unlike how Valverde or Purito used to do it. In many cases sprint away far enough to take not only the win, a few seconds on rivals in the same group, but also take boni seconds. Everybody who has been following cycling for longer than a week, indeed knows, that in order to take boni seconds, you need to finish (among the) first in that stage. That if a break goes to the finish, that there are no longer boni seconds to receive by the group of favorites. I know, we all know, my 7 year old knows. Thank you for pointing out the obvious. The fact that Ineos doesn't ride when there is a break that is no threat, is completely besides the point and irrelevant. They can all take a piss break of 10 minutes or start playing cards on the side of the road. Like Bonimenier already pointed out 2 days ago and half a page up, Ineos isn't the only team in the peloton, other teams (like UAE) can ride and control the race.
As such, when UAE knows the finish is perfect for Pogacar, and he can take 10 to 20 seconds (time dif + boni) on such a finish on a rider who is either breathing down his neck, or who is within spitting distance in GC, why wouldn't his team control the race and make sure he gets those boni seconds? If there are 2 or 3 such finishes, he could possibly win 30 seconds MORE thanks to bonis.
A GC rider doesn't need boni seconds to make a difference, you say. In theory this is correct. Assuming you are the better climber or ITT'er. But if you are only equal or slightly worse, those boni seconds could very well be the only weapon you have.
Hoping you now understand the premise,
sincerly
Red Rick
BANNED
Most of the stages with where boni's matter the most are before where Ineos likely takes yellow anyway. Sure Jumbo might try to do the same, but if they bet on Roglic they might as well go for the punchy stages too.
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