Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[KZD]

I think that he needs either Le Manie to be back which I don't think its likely or alternatively a year with rain and colder weather as he seems to thrive in those conditions.

 

[Red Rick]

I think that he needs either Le Manie to be back which I don't think its likely or alternatively a year with rain and colder weather as he seems to thrive in those conditions.

I dont think Le Manie does that much to riders of Van Aerts ilk.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I am sure Tadej had the legs to win MSR on Saturday.

He was honest, and admitted he did not dare to follow Mohoric on the descent.

TV pictures confirmed this: Tadej was behind Mohoric, when Mohoric started his crazy descent. Tadej allowed the gap to open. That was it, for Tadej and the men behind Tadej. The gap never got closed afterwards.

Two days later, one must say that Tadej lost this race because of his lack of willingness to take risks.

I think Tadej had the better legs than Mohoric, but Mohoric had the bigger willingness to take risks. In the end, this enabled Mohoric to win the race.

These are, IMHO, interesting conclusions for the future.

Tadej is not a father, yet, and is still under 25. Nevertheless, he obviously hasn‘t got the willingness to take risks that other riders (like Mohoric) have. These other riders (like Mohoric) seem to accept the risk of injury and hospital, if they smell the victory. Tadej does not accept these risks.

That, IMHO, will actually almost never be a problem for Tadej. In most races he does, he just doesn‘t need the willingness to take risks that a Mohoric has. In San Remo, however, Tadej will have to change something: attacking on Poggio will be too late.

Tadej, if he wants to win MSR within the next years, will have to attack on the Cipressa, at the latest. Even better would be an attack on one of the Capi directly before Cipressa. That‘s just my opinion. What do you guys think?

 

[SafeBet]

Tadej, if he wants to win MSR within the next years, will have to attack on the Cipressa, at the latest. Even better would be an attack on one of the Capi directly before Cipressa. That‘s just my opinion. What do you guys think?

Why not Turchino?

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Why not Turchino?

To be honest: I thought about Turchino.

Disadvantage of attacking on Turchino is, however, that Turchino is really, really far from the finish line… So I think, attacking on Turchino (for Tadej) would be too early; attacking on Poggio would be too late.

Ideal area of an attack from Tadej might be from Capi Mele, Cervo and Berta to Cipressa. Cipressa at the latest…

 

[tobydawq]

To be honest: I thought about Turchino.

Disadvantage of attacking on Turchino is, however, that Turchino is really, really far from the finish line… So I think, attacking on Turchino (for Tadej) would be too early; attacking on Poggio would be too late.

Ideal area of an attack from Tadej might be from Capi Mele, Cervo and Berta to Cipressa. Cipressa at the latest…

Or maybe the Poggio.

 

[hayneplane]

The Turchino is famed as the kind of real beginning of MSR that signifies the end of rolling through and tapping out a rhythm and the pase where watching any moves and positioning becomes more important. Seeing it raced live for the first time on TV showed it to be a remarkably lame climb that even the most ascending allergic members of the peloton can comfortably get up in the group with no upping of effort.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Or maybe the Poggio.

Exactly… Poggio could have worked for Tadej on Saturday, too - I think hardly anyone expected this Mohoric fireworks…

Tadej now lost an important race due to a weakness of himself: the lack of willingness to take risks.

Until now, fellow riders and public in general did not know of any weakness of Pogacar.

Now one could think this is good news: there is only one rider in the peloton who is on Tadej‘s level regarding strength, and this is Roglic.

Even better: Roglic is not really known for a lack of willingness to take risks - jumping from Planica‘s big Ski Flying hill demands some risk tolerance…

Bad luck, though, that Primoz is known for usually not finishing stage races with less than a dozen big, painful wounds…

 

[Roku]

Exactly… Poggio could have worked for Tadej on Saturday, too - I think hardly anyone expected this Mohoric fireworks…

Tadej now lost an important race due to a weakness of himself: the lack of willingness to take risks.

Until now, fellow riders and public in general did not know of any weakness of Pogacar.

Now one could think this is good news: there is only one rider in the peloton who is on Tadej‘s level regarding strength, and this is Roglic.

Even better: Roglic is not really known for a lack of willingness to take risks - jumping from Planica‘s big Ski Flying hill demands some risk tolerance…

Bad luck, though, that Primoz is known for usually not finishing stage races with less than a dozen big, painful wounds…

I don't think you're post is realistic at all.

It seems like Tadej is a Richie Porte or Seb Reichenbach reincarnation.

I wouldn't say being unable to follow Mohoric in a crazy descent is a weakness. He missed the wheel of a top class descender (like everyone else), the best in the 2010s decade with Sagan. It would be like saying Nibali has to improve his descending or bike handling skills after the famous Tour of Oman 2014 stage, or Jarlinson Pantano didn't have guts after losing Sagan's wheel on the Gap Stage in ¿2016?.

It is also questionable to think Roglic is on par with Pogacar.

 

[Netserk]

If Pogi went away with Wout, he would have had a decent chance to win the sprint. So I don't think he should solely focus on getting away alone.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Let's face it; MSR has horrible course characteristics for Pogacar. He excels in the mountains, and for professional road cyclists these are not even hills, but mere bumps in the road (that just happen to come after many kms of racing).

It's remarkable that he was a serious threat to win this year, and that he probably will be again in the future.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I don't think you're post is realistic at all.

It seems like Tadej is a Richie Porte or Seb Reichenbach reincarnation.

I wouldn't say being unable to follow Mohoric in a crazy descent is a weakness. He missed the wheel of a top class descender (like everyone else), the best in the 2010s decade with Sagan. It would be like saying Nibali has to improve his descending or bike handling skills after the famous Tour of Oman 2014 stage, or Jarlinson Pantano didn't have guts after losing Sagan's wheel on the Gap Stage in ¿2016?.

It is also questionable to think Roglic is on par with Pogacar.

Apparently Mohoric also told him about the drop seatpost before the race and told him that therefore he shouldn't try to copy his lines on the descent.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

People are really overrating advanced strategies in MSR. Attacking 50k or 30k out just doesn't work with too many teams commited to a chase and no proper hard section to create bigger sepperation (Cipressa is not hard enough).
In hindsight going so early on the Poggio was pointless because you're attacking with 40km/h and everyone in your wheels is just getting a monster draft while you're wasting energy. But even going later would've not made a difference on Saturday, everyone was simply focused on him and Wout and others were happy to just close the gap and sit on. I actually think the participation of more other strong guys might help him in the future, ideally he needs someone who closes him and then counters/or starts to work with him, someone who also backs himself in a small group sprint.
Either way, there's a lot of factors playing in and you simply need a certain amount of luck, there's a reason why no one apart from Zabel was able to dominate this race over multiple years since the introduction of the Cipressa/Poggio combi.

 

[YavorD]

I think top form Alaphilippe would be a big ally for Pogacar. As a rider who wouldn't wait for the sprint an attack on the Pogggio/possibly work wiith Pog as well. If only Pogacar can stay on his wheal.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's time for some numbers. Pogacar has just beaten his own UCI ranking record again: whooping 5776 pts. This record can last for some time unless Pogacar does the damage at Flandres (he doesn't take part in Basque Tour this year losing points).

https://firstcycling.com/ranking.php?h=1&rank=1&y=2022-11

Note Roglic's and Van Aert's respectable scores (around 4000 pts): in other times they could have been enough for #1 but now it's not even close.

 

[Sciatic]

Exactly… Poggio could have worked for Tadej on Saturday, too - I think hardly anyone expected this Mohoric fireworks…

…

I think your 1st point is excellent and is what gets lost in the post-race analysis: he gave himself a decent shot at winning and in some years it could have worked. My perception about MSR is that it’s a race, at least in the era since Freire, in which a super strong rider cannot simply dominant the proceedings, like Cancellara or Boonen at Flanders. The best a rider can do for MSR is prepare well, execute a good strategy, and hope that it lands them in a finale where they have a shot at the win. But it could take getting in the finale 5 times until 1 works out. Or it might never work out, much to Sagan’s and others dismay. It is a sort of lottery as many folks have previously posted. But it’s unlike a lottery in that there aren’t that many ticket holders (the set of potential winners), so the odds aren’t as horrific, so why not keep taking a shot?

Maybe he could have chosen better spots the attack, but I am still not convinced that if he had “saved up” for a single attack we could have gone clear solo.

 

[RunningRouleur]

Predictions for Dwars and De Ronde? I've got him as a top favorite for both.

 

[Red Rick]

Dwars could be, I dont know who is riding. Top favorite for Ronde is a no.

 

[Blanco]

Van Der Poel is riding Dwars, so also no.

 

[KZD]

It's time for some numbers. Pogacar has just beaten his own UCI ranking record again: whooping 5776 pts. This record can last for some time unless Pogacar does the damage at Flandres (he doesn't take part in Basque Tour this year losing points).

https://firstcycling.com/ranking.php?h=1&rank=1&y=2022-11

Note Roglic's and Van Aert's respectable scores (around 4000 pts): in other times they could have been enough for #1 but now it's not even close.

Incredible how Valverde still manages to be 5th at 41

 

[acm]

Apparently Mohoric also told him about the drop seatpost before the race and told him that therefore he shouldn't try to copy his lines on the descent.

Yeah and not only Pogačar, Mohorič said that to half the peloton. And also almost everyone knew he was going to attack on descent, but no one is that crazy (and also good) to follow him.

 

[Nick2413]

I actually dont think yesterday shows great prospects for Pogs Sanremo chamces in the future. Circumstances benefitted him tremendously with the many withdrawals and the huge tailwind, yet attacking early on the Poggio did nothing despite a massive pace on the Cipressa.

Pogacar would have to wait for the same place as Alaphilippe and then hope for the best. But he doesnt have Alas kick and hes also not that level of descender to stay away with a small gap

Maybe it would actually be better to not pace Cipressa and make the Poggio ascent more crowded and chaotic. All that a near record Cipressa did was help everyones positioning.

I think the hard cipressa may have hurt him in the sense nobody was able to work with him. If he and another guy or two got away he’d have a fair chance of a sprint finish win even against the usual names. Instead they were only able to latch on and keep everyone else in tow, the worst of both worlds. Still probably not his ideal parcours though.

 

[hayneplane]

I think the hard cipressa may have hurt him in the sense nobody was able to work with him. If he and another guy or two got away he’d have a fair chance of a sprint finish win even against the usual names. Instead they were only able to latch on and keep everyone else in tow, the worst of both worlds. Still probably not his ideal parcours though.

In hindsight the biggest damage done from any of his attacks was the first one and if he had sustained his attack then a maximum of 5 riders would have held his wheel as they all looked a bit ragged trying to cling on.

 

[Nick2413]

Exactly… Poggio could have worked for Tadej on Saturday, too - I think hardly anyone expected this Mohoric fireworks…

Tadej now lost an important race due to a weakness of himself: the lack of willingness to take risks.

Until now, fellow riders and public in general did not know of any weakness of Pogacar.

Now one could think this is good news: there is only one rider in the peloton who is on Tadej‘s level regarding strength, and this is Roglic.

Even better: Roglic is not really known for a lack of willingness to take risks - jumping from Planica‘s big Ski Flying hill demands some risk tolerance…

Bad luck, though, that Primoz is known for usually not finishing stage races with less than a dozen big, painful wounds…

Idk about this. Nobody else could follow Mohoric either and Pog has already proven himself to be among the best descenders and bike handlers. He has a Tour de France to win and that no doubt plays into his decision making. Winning by attacking 10 guys midway through the final descent is probably not his most likely option but I still think there’s a handful of ways he could win.

 

[Sciatic]

I think the other thing to remember is that Mojoric is not necessarily going to hang on with the best climbers every year. obviously if he's gapped he can catch back on, but then Mohoric becomes just another opponent racing to line. And then if does another monster descent to get such a gap, the dynamic in the chasing group could go differently.
So I don't it would be worth it for him or the team to waste time and energy trying to make sure he could win in a exact repeat scenario.