Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

If you look at pogacar, this year compared to previous years. He has clearly gained weight and I think this is the reason why he struggled yesterday.

Here are two pictures
2020
https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tour_de_France_2020#/media/Fil:Tadej_Pogačar_(2020-09-20)_-_Yellow_jersey_-_Tour_de_France_2020.jpg

2022:

"F**king move your arse and risk it": Andy Schleck gives Tour de France peloton advice on how to beat Tadej Pogačar

So how do you beat the utterly dominant brilliance of Tadej Pogačar? That’s the question 21 teams at the Tour de France and thousands of cycling fans around the world have been left to ponder on this the second of three rest days (or first ‘proper’ rest day as the first was a transfer, strictly...

road.cc

Before the Tour Pogacar said he has less body fat than before. So maybe more muscles or he was fooling us?

 

[Jan the Man]

Everyone is human- he had a bad day and went over the limit too early coupled with Jumbo playing their cards well on the Telegraph, so that Pogacar burned some matches.

It puts Vingegaard in a commanding position especially given he has a team to control the race.

But Pogacar is a Campionissimo, he will not relinquish without a fight- The tour is far from over, but realistically he needs to be within 30s at the TT so needs to claw back about 2 minutes.

 

[dutchdescent]

Who says that?

Pay a visit to his thread.

 

[Blobs]

Pay a visit to his thread.

I don't see anybody saying that there.

 

[Peyroteo94]

On occasions like this, I sometimes think about how clear it was in 2019 that Bernal was about to win 5 Tours. And in 2009 that Contador was about to win 7. Pogacar still could, but there’s always talent in the pipeline and wrinkles in the plan

Bernal was about to win 5 Tours? It was so obvious that he wouldn't win anymore.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I still have lingering doubts about how Pogi copes at high altitude. Yes I know he didn't help his cause on the Galibier but the only other time I recall him losing any time on a big mountain was 15 seconds to Roglic on Col de la Loze in 2020 (also 2,400 metres) ?

Ventoux is the other big climb he got dropped on and it's at low altitude. (But it could have been due to the heat)

Pogačar wasn't any better on the low altitude climb of Luz Ardiden, vs the high altitude Portet (at 2200m) ...which is definitely a major climb.

At 2400m and above though, who knows?

Could be that he doesn't train as much at very high altitude as some other GC guys, Vingegaard included.

It could be a contributing factor.

 

[meat puppet]

How would not chasing Rogla have helped Pogi, given that Vingo's legs decided the matter anyway? Okay, on the Galibier, there would have been a couple attacks less. But was that it? I doubt it. Also, Pogi knew that letting Rogla to ride to WVA and then throttle it from there on is a risk. IMHO he was correct to control both of them, as he did not have 20/20 hindsight but was in the thick of it. At the same time he got carried away with himself and wasted energy countering and showboating.

Vingo's 6,3w/kg for 15min at that altitude and after that stage was crazy. The Galibier was not slow either, and the on/off dynamics certainly induce proper damage. That said, it was almost as crazy that Pog was reduced to 5,2w/kg. Almost as though he ran out of glycogen and was capped at LT1. If so, 5,2w/kg LT1 is quite.... something.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Bernal was about to win 5 Tours? It was so obvious that he wouldn't win anymore.

You must have been in the minority to think that. In the eyes of most, he was the next dominant GT rider. Roglic was not at his peak yet and, at 29 or so, not expected to become quite what he did the next year, Pogi hadn’t gotten third in the Vuelta yet, Vingegaard was canning fish, etc. Who did you think was going to stop him from winning in 2020?

 

[Peyroteo94]

You must have been in the minority to think that. In the eyes of most, he was the next dominant GT rider. Roglic was not at his peak yet and, at 29 or so, not expected to become quite what he did the next year, Pogi hadn’t gotten third in the Vuelta yet, Vingegaard was canning fish, etc. Who did you think was going to stop him from winning in 2020?

Roglic... Bernal barely beat Pinot...

 

[sir fly]

A task by the measure of a double champion.
The Pyrenees are made for him.

 

[Miha81]

A task by the measure of a double champion.
The Pyrenees are made for him.

But he would need to take nearly 2 minutes to stand a chance in ITT... for sake of entertainment let's be positive

 

[Oldermanish]

Bernal was about to win 5 Tours? It was so obvious that he wouldn't win anymore.

Bernal got an almost predictable back issue based on his age and his bike position. He may return from that if his bus crash doesn't add to the long term grief. Your point is well taken as valid observation. Most young riders that get overused have a difficult time dealing with recovery from injuries and returning to their old form.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Tour is over unless some rain can fell in this Tour (NGH).

 

[SafeBet]

I believe we're in for a treat in the third week.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

But he would need to take nearly 2 minutes to stand a chance in ITT... for sake of entertainment let's be positive

I think he can take 40-60 seconds in the ITT, everything more would have to be due to a proper Jonas meltdown (which I wouldn't rule out, I think his nerves can get to him). People forget how big gaps can be in an 50 minutes ITT.

I think today was fairly good for him. Jonas didn't put more time into him and he was clearly the best of the rest. The big problem for him now is that his team is utter *** and Jumbo will probably let every break go in order to stop him from getting bonus seconds. He should still try to make a difference in the Mende stage, just to test Vingegaard.
Next week, Peyragudes should suit him more and if he doesn't drop Jonas there he still can try to go long on the Hautacam stage or try an descent attack.

 

[solo80k]

I think he can take 40-60 seconds in the ITT, everything more would have to be due to a proper Jonas meltdown (which I wouldn't rule out, I think his nerves can get to him). People forget how big gaps can be in an 50 minutes ITT.

I think today was fairly good for him. Jonas didn't put more time into him and he was clearly the best of the rest. The big problem for him now is that his team is utter *** and Jumbo will probably let every break go in order to stop him from getting bonus seconds. He should still try to make a difference in the Mende stage, just to test Vingegaard.
Next week, Peyragudes should suit him more and if he doesn't drop Jonas there he still can try to go long on the Hautacam stage or try an descent attack.

ITT is extremely long by current standard and on the 20th stage. Pog can take back 60-80 seconds (2 seconds/km at best). He has incredible engine.. On the other hand I don't think he can take back more than 100 seconds unless Jonas has an extremely bad day. So JV has a buffer but it's 1 minute to feel save.

 

[Miha81]

I think he can take 40-60 seconds in the ITT, everything more would have to be due to a proper Jonas meltdown (which I wouldn't rule out, I think his nerves can get to him). People forget how big gaps can be in an 50 minutes ITT.

I think today was fairly good for him. Jonas didn't put more time into him and he was clearly the best of the rest. The big problem for him now is that his team is utter *** and Jumbo will probably let every break go in order to stop him from getting bonus seconds. He should still try to make a difference in the Mende stage, just to test Vingegaard.
Next week, Peyragudes should suit him more and if he doesn't drop Jonas there he still can try to go long on the Hautacam stage or try an descent attack.

Yes. I was affraid that JV and Vigo will extend the lead today. They would if Vigo sensed that he can counterpunch at the end. I hope Pogi can get some time back and at least make ITT a fun thing to watch. I will simply sleep over the next few days with breakaway and remaining sprinters having fun. Just hope that JV train will not overwhelm the montain stages because it is boring to watch.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I believe we're in for a treat in the third week.

Yep. Mende will already be spectacular. I could see Pogačar taking 20+ seconds back on that finish.

I think Vingegaard will get weaker relatively to Pog. The pressure of the yellow jersey.

 

[ppanther92]

On occasions like this, I sometimes think about how clear it was in 2019 that Bernal was about to win 5 Tours. And in 2009 that Contador was about to win 7. Pogacar still could, but there’s always talent in the pipeline and wrinkles in the plan

Very true post. I mean for Contador something else than athletic challenge/limitation happened. But I was very sure that Ineos had found the new dominator in Bernal, indeed.

 

[Miha81]

He stated in Slovenian interview that he was feeling better today but still felt he was not at his best. He fells like he is getting his confidence back after yesterday's shock and will keep attacking next week. He also stated that JV are very strong but his team helped him a lot today (mainly carrying him lots of water and ice).

When asked if he is happy about few easier days he joked that not and there should be another hard montain stage tomorrow

In later interview he added that he knows exactly what happened yesterday and he will not let it happen this tour again. He is looking forward to next week.

 

[roundabout]

Obviously different stages every year, but after 12 stages Pogacar has more points in the green jersey classification than in the whole Tour last year.

 

[CyclistAbi]

He for sure didn't want to give a JV rider two minutes and a half of an advantage. But the truth is he and his team did a rather poor job defending the yellow jersey anyway. JV likely did him a favor in taking it away. On top of that in 7 remaining stages plus a long flat ITT. I feel that Jonas will have a rather hard job defending jellow jersey against Pogačar. Especially considering on how JV will likely race. As being his team.

On top of that now it's more about mano-a-mano and not Rogla delivering half beaten Pogi to the half of the hill. Here i do feel that Jonas might not be up to task. Like on every other race they faced each other in the past.

We'll see.

 

[Gratemans]

He lost 40 seconds per km which is a difference between a top gc guy and a weak breakaway guy. But its not only about Vinge. Did you see the data? He had like 5.2 w per kg during last few km (laughable even for an average climber let alone the best climber in recent years) being easily overtaken by guys weaker than him. It wasnt normal at all. He exploded too much.

It wasn't a lack of nutrition, it wasn't covid or whatever either. Both the DS and Pogacar himself have confirmed that. He just didn't have the legs on this particular day. I applaud them for being honest about it. This Tour isn't over by a long shot though imo, but it's pretty clear cut what happened at this particular stage: Pogacar lacked a strong team and the legs to counter all of the attacks.

Also, laughable? Get out of here. You can pinpoint certain sections and point out exceptionally low wattages for every rider. No need to make excuses for Pog when even he himself stated he just couldn't hang on. He very well might come back with a bang later on, and for the sake of the Tour I hope so, but he was beaten on merit here.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

A task by the measure of a double champion.
The Pyrenees are made for him.

Yep. As is Mende, as is the ITT.

I won't bet against him.

 

[Netserk]

Yep. As is Mende, as is the ITT.

I won't bet against him.

Is Hautacam any more made for him than Granon?