Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Is Hautacam any more made for him than Granon?

I think so.

The stage definitely is, as it (obviously) doesn't have Galibier north before.

 

[Rackham]

He'll need to go solo in the Pyrenees, possibly as early as l'Aubisque on the Hautacam stage.

Drop a watts bomb & blow Vingegaard off his wheel, or at least make him choose to use his teammates to chase. It's not an ideal scenario by any stretch but Pogacar can & should climb faster than anyone else on Vingegaard's team.

Once he has a gap, it can go both ways: he blows up & gets caught, or the yellow jersey behind panics & has a bad day. Either way he can't go to the ITT with a 2 minute + deficit & he hasn't shown he can drop Vingegaard on a climb yet mano a mano.

 

[Netserk]

I think so.

The stage definitely is, as it (obviously) doesn't have Galibier north before.

No, but while Galibier is more of an extended effort and at higher altitude, Aubisque and Spandelles have together roughly the same altitude gain at a slightly higher average gradient. They also link more closely to Hautacam than Galibier does to Granon.

The main difference is that the same tactical situation wouldn't unfold, but both the climbs and the stages are not too different.

 

[Red Rick]

No, but while Galibier is more of an extended effort and at higher altitude, Aubisque and Spandelles have together roughly the same altitude gain at a slightly higher average gradient. They also link more closely to Hautacam than Galibier does to Granon.

The main difference is that the same tactical situation wouldn't unfold, but both the climbs and the stages are not too different.

I think the lack of rest between Telegraphe and Galibier makes that stage quite different. There's pretty strong reason the Galibier north record has such low W/kg. I believe Pogacar was so fried on top of the Galibier becuase of the long climb, the intervals and all that *** that he didn't recover like many other riders.

What was interesting to me about yesterday is that Pogacar waited for the easy parts of AdH to attack Vingegaard. I don't think he backs himself at all in a pure W/kg test right now

Also, given that Hautacam is the last climb, at that point it would make sense to me for Jumbo to completely snailpace it and force UAE to make it hard.

 

[Nick2413]

It’s a bizarre feeling to see Pogacar being taken to the cleaners by someone while he’s at this stage in his career with no discernible issues. One bad day can happen to anybody and maybe that’s all it was, but this feels like a head scratcher. Vinegaard basically had the same rapid rise to the top as him too. Something seems a bit odd about all of this, the constant fluctuation of top riders is almost comical it seems.

 

[ppanther92]

My bet would be that Vingegaard wins this year but that will make Pogacar much more serious, less attacking and non-focused on the classics. Which in turn will bring peak Pogacar next year at the TdF, being the dominant force.

 

[SarahtheDane]

It’s a bizarre feeling to see Pogacar being taken to the cleaners by someone while he’s at this stage in his career with no discernible issues. One bad day can happen to anybody and maybe that’s all it was, but this feels like a head scratcher. Vinegaard basically had the same rapid rise to the top as him too. Something seems a bit odd about all of this, the constant fluctuation of top riders is almost comical it seems.

But isn't it nice that we don't have a clear cut winner for the next many years? Remember the Lance years, it was never a question if he would win or not.

 

[memyselfandI]

My bet would be that Vingegaard wins this year but that will make Pogacar much more serious, less attacking and non-focused on the classics. Which in turn will bring peak Pogacar next year at the TdF, being the dominant force.

It's very possible that JV takes this one. This year shows:

super leader w/ average team < super leaders w/ super team

Of course there's now this bad luck factor (covid) that is multiplying problems for UAE but still. Pogi maybe did not realised beforehand, or his DS's. At the moment JV is like Froome & Sky at it's prime force.

Already yesterday Pogi made some useless bites against Vingo, too quickly, as he's just been beaten up to pieces .He should take breath for a day-two -three, stay close, do nothing but stay, focus, think, focus and then go for the kill when it's really right moment. There's not necessarily that many moments.

But it's more now his DS's team strategy team management job than his own job, he's quite young boy afterall that now can be seen when under pressure. But not easy for the team management either as team is like in pieces.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

But isn't it nice that we don't have a clear cut winner for the next many years? Remember the Lance years, it was never a question if he would win or not.

There was suspense in 2003. Ullrich came really close . He crashed in the final ITT. Was gaining on Lance before, couldn't find his rhythm after.

 

[SarahtheDane]

There was suspense in 2003. Ullrich came really close . He crashed in the final ITT. Was gaining on Lance before, couldn't find his rhythm after.

I remember some of that. 9 year old me still had no doubt Lance would win. And then finally, after all those years, I was looking forward to the epic battle that never was in 2006.

 

[KZD]

It's very possible that JV takes this one. This year shows:

super leader w/ average team < super leaders w/ super team

Of course there's now this bad luck factor (covid) that is multiplying problems for UAE but still. Pogi maybe did not realised beforehand, or his DS's. At the moment JV is like Froome & Sky at it's prime force.

Already yesterday Pogi made some useless bites against Vingo, too quickly, as he's just been beaten up to pieces .He should take breath for a day-two -three, stay close, do nothing but stay, focus, think, focus and then go for the kill when it's really right moment. There's not necessarily that many moments.

But it's more now his DS's team strategy team management job than his own job, he's quite young boy afterall that now can be seen when under pressure. But not easy for the team management either as team is like in pieces.

Regardless of the final result of this year's Tour, I am sure Pogi will remain one of the strongest forces in professional cycling for years to come, he is just too good not to. Just hope that he never loses his attacking side and continues to ride the classics.

 

[memyselfandI]

Regardless of the final result of this year's Tour, I am sure Pogi will remain one of the strongest forces in professional cycling for years to come, he is just too good not to. Just hope that he never loses his attacking side and continues to ride the classics.

Agree. It's just that JV is giving the steeper end of learning curve for UAE: This is team sport after all and whatever you do, dont get sick.

 

[Lorzenz08]

From memory, I don't think there's been a yellow jersey, who has already won a TDF, who lost that much time (against the next rival) in a climbing stage since at least Merckx era.
I think I can remember 30secs-1min lost a few times, but not almost 3 minutes.

So Pogi really imploded bad lol ...

 

[roundabout]

From memory, I don't think there's been a yellow jersey, who has already won a TDF, who lost that much time (against the next rival) in a climbing stage since at least Merckx era.
I think I can remember 30secs-1min lost a few times, but not almost 3 minutes.

So Pogi really imploded bad lol ...

Ullrich was in yellow in 1998 when he lost 9 minutes to Pantani

 

[ice&fire]

From memory, I don't think there's been a yellow jersey, who has already won a TDF, who lost that much time (against the next rival) in a climbing stage since at least Merckx era.
I think I can remember 30secs-1min lost a few times, but not almost 3 minutes.

So Pogi really imploded bad lol ...

Apart from Ullrich:

Hinault says hello... twice. The second time on Granon. What a coincidence!

Tour de France 1986 Stage 13 results

Tour de France 1986 Stage 13 from Pau to Superbagnères was won by Greg LeMond before Robert Millar and Urs Zimmermann. Bernard Hinault was leading the general classification.

www.procyclingstats.com

Tour de France 1986 Stage 17 results

Tour de France 1986 Stage 17 from Gap to Col du Granon was won by Eduardo Chozas before Urs Zimmermann and Greg LeMond. Greg LeMond was leading the general classification.

www.procyclingstats.com

Lemond had gifted the yellow jersey the day before, so it doesn't count just because of a formality.

Tour de France 1991 Stage 13 results

Tour de France 1991 Stage 13 from Jaca to Val Louron was won by Claudio Chiappucci before Miguel Induráin and Gianni Bugno. Miguel Induráin was leading the general classification.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Ripper]

It's very possible that JV takes this one. This year shows:

super leader w/ average team < super leaders w/ super team

Of course there's now this bad luck factor (covid) that is multiplying problems for UAE but still. Pogi maybe did not realised beforehand, or his DS's. At the moment JV is like Froome & Sky at it's prime force.

Already yesterday Pogi made some useless bites against Vingo, too quickly, as he's just been beaten up to pieces .He should take breath for a day-two -three, stay close, do nothing but stay, focus, think, focus and then go for the kill when it's really right moment. There's not necessarily that many moments.

But it's more now his DS's team strategy team management job than his own job, he's quite young boy afterall that now can be seen when under pressure. But not easy for the team management either as team is like in pieces.

Some good points here. Attacking all over the place might work but also could just exhaust him and make him more vulnerable. He needs to set aside ego and look for a more strategic moment (or moments).

 

[Extinction]

If you think about his 2 Tour wins 2020 was owing to a stunning performance on the penultimate day, whereas last year after the first TT and real alpine stage he already, for all intents and purposes, KOd the competition. Even so, subsequently on the double-Ventoux stage the very Vingegaard in yellow today placed him in a moment of difficulty. Consequently, neither win was a totally crushing performance. To the contrary, Roglic was able to drop him in 2020, although succumed in the end, whereas last year Pog showed a weakness in his armor too.

The point I think is that this time Pogacar had a bad day, finds himself on the back foot, but now is up against someone who can meet his match in the mountains. So unless Vingegaard cracks it is highly unlikely that Pogacar drops him in the mountains in the third week, especially since last year he was unable to do so (and even got dropped on the Ventoux, as has been said). Plus Pogacar's team is weak.

Thus the only way I see Pog winning this year is if he finds super form in the last days like 2020 and Vingegaard has a bad day (like Roglic at the end of Tour 2020). The stars aligned once, but it's difficult for them to do so twice. But let's see if the pressure factor, always exacerbated at the Tour, weighs heavily on Vingegaard in the third week.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogi is now more or less resting in the peloton. Likely Rogla won't get involved in a way we have seen at stage 11. Hence in a mano-a-mano duel i feel that anything is possible. Still Jonas is in great shape and sticking to Pogi wheel is something that he is good at.

What we can be rather sure of we will get to see it and let the best man win.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Pogi is now more or less resting in the peloton. Likely Rogla won't get involved in a way we have seen at stage 11. Hence in a mano-a-mano duel i feel that anything is possible. Still Jonas is in great shape and sticking to Pogi wheel is something that he is good at.

What we can be rather sure of we will get to see it and let the best man win.

Anything can happen really, but if Vingegaard keeps his current fitness in the Pyrenees, doesn't have a mental issue with being the yellow jersey, and JV keeps doing his thing, most likely scenario is that Vingegaard will suck his wheel until the final sprint.

With that said I'm sure the mental part will be a big factor to manage because knowing you have to defend against Pog must be daunting as hell.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

If you think about his 2 Tour wins 2020 was owing to a stunning performance on the penultimate day, whereas last year after the first TT and real alpine stage he already, for all intents and purposes, KOd the competition. Even so, subsequently on the double-Ventoux stage the very Vingegaard in yellow today placed him in a moment of difficulty. Consequently, neither win was a totally crushing performance. To the contrary, Roglic was able to drop him in 2020, although succumed in the end, whereas last year Pog showed a weakness in his armor too.

The point I think that this time Pogacar had a bad day, finds himself on the back foot, but this time is up against someone who can meet his match in the mountains. So unless Vingegaard cracks it is highly unlikely that Pogacar drops him in the mountains in the third week, especially since last year he was unable to do so (and even got dropped on the Ventoux, as has been said). Plus Pogacar's team is weak.

Thus the only way I see Pog winning this year is if he finds super form in the last days like 2020 and Vingegaard has a bad day (like Roglic at the end of Tour 2020). The stars aligned once, but it's difficult for them to do so twice. But let's see if the pressure factor, always exacerbated at the Tour, weighs heavily on Vingegaard in the third week.

2020 was truly a perfect storm for Pogacar (and the opposite for Roglic). Roglic was injured in a prep race, which likely caused him to be a little off form. He also knew enough to know that Pogacar was a future Tour winner but seemed to believe he had his measure for now. He could have almost certainly cut at least a minute of the difference if he'd properly rated him during that race. And then the race teed up the perfect ITT for Pogacar to capitalize on his growing strength and steal the Tour. Imagine if it was the ITT from this current edition. Pogi might have gained 20 seconds or so possibly. Just perfect for him.

2021 I would add that his main rival crashed out, and Vingegaard wasted some time due to that situation. He also likely just lacked the confidence to follow Pogi on the Cole de Romme.

So, agreed, we haven't seen a truly dominant Tour since 2014, which was also due to crashes, so really probably Lance since there was a clear dominant winner.

 

[SHAD0W93]

2020 was truly a perfect storm for Pogacar (and the opposite for Roglic). Roglic was injured in a prep race, which likely caused him to be a little off form. He also knew enough to know that Pogacar was a future Tour winner but seemed to believe he had his measure for now. He could have almost certainly cut at least a minute of the difference if he'd properly rated him during that race. And then the race teed up the perfect ITT for Pogacar to capitalize on his growing strength and steal the Tour. Imagine if it was the ITT from this current edition. Pogi might have gained 20 seconds or so possibly, possibly know. Just perfect for him.

2021 I would add that his main rival crashed out, and Vingegaard wasted some time due to that situation. He also likely just lacked the confidence to follow Pogi on the Cole de Romme.

So, agreed, we haven't seen a truly dominant Tour since 2014, which was also due to crashes, so really probably Lance since there was a clear dominant winner.

Contador 2009
Dominated with the majority of his team, staff, and DS going against him.
Wiggins 2012
Dominated with a dominant team and still had 3’21” over Froome.
Froom 2013
Dominated with a dominant team.

 

[SHAD0W93]

What we need is to come down to 3 seconds or less Pogacar is behind Vingegaard, setting up for a showdown in Paris.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Contador 2009
Dominated with the majority of his team, staff, and DS going against him.
Wiggins 2012
Dominated with a dominant team and still had 3’21” over Froome.
Froom 2013
Dominated with a dominant team.

I considered all 3 of those and you’re likely right to include them. Left 2012 out because there’s debate about whether the strongest rider won, 2009 because I’d misremembered Schleck as being closer than he was, I guess based on 2010.

 

[Nick2413]

What we need is to come down to 3 seconds or less Pogacar is behind Vingegaard, setting up for a showdown in Paris.

If it came down to 3 seconds would they try something?

 

[SHAD0W93]

I considered all 3 of those and you’re likely right to include them. Left 2012 out because there’s debate about whether the strongest rider won, 2009 because I’d misremembered Schleck as being closer than he was, I guess based on 2010.

Yes, clear debate and maybe Froome could be unleashed or not of on a different team. But maybe Sky control him and it’s 2 mins instead of 3.