Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Nick2413

Dec 2, 2020
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Red Rick said:
It's less about who is better and more about what the popular narratives are for Pogacar in these races. For RVV, this narrative is that he was stronger than MvdP. WvA not being there and MvdP having a questionable buildup are easier to ignore. For the Tour that narrative is super clearly that he got *** by tactics on Granon and that's the sole reason he lost.

If you ask me, I think the idea that he's the considerable favorite for RVV over Van Aert and MvdP is rather absurd. I also think Vingegaard is the Tour favorite, but I think the assumption that they're 50/50 is more plausible.
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I’m shocked so many believe tactics are the reason he lost TdF. I still think it’s a crapshoot though due to uncertainty regarding Vingegaard.

I think Pog is arguably the strongest at Flanders if you take out the sprint finish, but getting to the line alone might never happen. That said, I actually rate his chances higher in a 3 man sprint vs 2.
 
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fmk_RoI

fmk_RoI

Sep 16, 2010
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Krzysztof_O said:
TdF odds:
https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner
Flandres odds:
https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-of-flanders/winner
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Has anyone ever looked at the use of these numbers? I mean, how often does the 'favourite' in a bike race actually win that bike race? Colour me cynical but the wisdom of crowds gets all sorts of things wrong. And it's easier to get them wrong with cycling odds given the (small) volume of bets and the impact one or two larger bets can have on them.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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However you slice it, he has more options, more weapons than Vingegaard to pull any race into his corner. If he doesn't race like an idiot (like last year) Vingegaard can distance him maybe on a few occasions by a few seconds. But Pogacar can attack from further and see it through. He can take boni seconds in every non-sprinter/break stage. He's has more classic pedigree and could take time in stages that Jonas can't. In a TT they will likely even each other out.

I also think people are jumping a bit to conclusions by assuming Vingegaard is going to drop him every time the road goes up. Let's see how much leeway they give each other knowing they are each others rival. Unlike last year when Vingegaard's status was a lot more uncertain.
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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fmk_RoI said:
Has anyone ever looked at the use of these numbers? I mean, how often does the 'favourite' in a bike race actually win that bike race? Colour me cynical but the wisdom of crowds gets all sorts of things wrong. And it's easier to get them wrong with cycling odds given the (small) volume of bets and the impact one or two larger bets can have on them.
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I don't consider him #1 favourite for Flandres (he's among favourites though). He was super strong last year but he can't be favoured against MVP at any finish like that. Still the fact that he's odds favourite for two such different races speaks a lot, this is so rare.
 
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hayneplane

Sep 4, 2017
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Nick2413 said:
I’m shocked so many believe tactics are the reason he lost TdF. I still think it’s a crapshoot though due to uncertainty regarding Vingegaard.

I think Pog is arguably the strongest at Flanders if you take out the sprint finish, but getting to the line alone might never happen. That said, I actually rate his chances higher in a 3 man sprint vs 2.
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Probably not in a sprint but his best chance would be an attack 1.5km out and banking on 5 seconds of hesitation/arguments between WVA and MVDP over who goes first to shut the gap. Much harder to do this 1v1 against either rider.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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fmk_RoI said:
Has anyone ever looked at the use of these numbers? I mean, how often does the 'favourite' in a bike race actually win that bike race? Colour me cynical but the wisdom of crowds gets all sorts of things wrong. And it's easier to get them wrong with cycling odds given the (small) volume of bets and the impact one or two larger bets can have on them.
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My pet theory is basically favorites tend to be undervalued because it's just not exciting to bet really short odds. And that is the case for a lot of sports.
 
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Tim Cahill

May 6, 2021
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Pogacar must've surely enjoyed the UAE tour watching the great form of Adam Yates. He's quite inconsistent so obviously wouldn't be much use as a second GC rider but with his world class peak-climbing displays I can see him being used as a Richie/Kuss style super domestique, resting in the gruppetto most days then drilling it as the final man. This will be essential if he even wants to try and achieve any sort of separation on the shorter 20-30 minute climbs that suit him against a Jonas who's punch looks to be exceptional.

Re: betting markets - for sports like cycling I believe in most of the races the odds are calculated almost exclusively by how people are betting mainly, with little manual input that you'd get from higher volume sports, so they're based a bit more on the emotions of the people placing the bets rather than any cold-ass big brain ***. You can actually make a fair amount betting on cycling if you watch smaller weekday races live that few are watching and get a good look at riders emerging into form whilst betting on the next races they participate in. The markets for low-ish volume sports are slow to move so you can get some insane value if you have live information that hasn't been factored into the odds yet. A good example of this was that you could get Jonathan Milan for San Remo at 125/1 right after he crushed that stage on the Saudi Tour. Did this a lot when WFH during covid but unfortunately it's a quick way to get your account throttled which they can do for any reason.
 
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Nick2413

Dec 2, 2020
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Tim Cahill said:
Pogacar must've surely enjoyed the UAE tour watching the great form of Adam Yates. He's quite inconsistent so obviously wouldn't be much use as a second GC rider but with his world class peak-climbing displays I can see him being used as a Richie/Kuss style super domestique, resting in the gruppetto most days then drilling it as the final man. This will be essential if he even wants to try and achieve any sort of separation on the shorter 20-30 minute climbs that suit him against a Jonas who's punch looks to be exceptional.

Re: betting markets - for sports like cycling I believe in most of the races the odds are calculated almost exclusively by how people are betting mainly, with little manual input that you'd get from higher volume sports, so they're based a bit more on the emotions of the people placing the bets rather than any cold-ass big brain ***. You can actually make a fair amount betting on cycling if you watch smaller weekday races live that few are watching and get a good look at riders emerging into form whilst betting on the next races they participate in. The markets for low-ish volume sports are slow to move so you can get some insane value if you have live information that hasn't been factored into the odds yet. A good example of this was that you could get Jonathan Milan for San Remo at 125/1 right after he crushed that stage on the Saudi Tour. Did this a lot when WFH during covid but unfortunately it's a quick way to get your account throttled which they can do for any reason.
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Are you saying you won too much and they shut you down?

Really interesting points. It’s hard to imagine that it’s possible to game any betting market in this day and age but it makes sense if most of the betting is being done off emotion alone and that’s how the odds are set.
 
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Tim Cahill

May 6, 2021
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Nick2413 said:
Are you saying you won too much and they shut you down?

Really interesting points. It’s hard to imagine that it’s possible to game any betting market in this day and age but it makes sense if most of the betting is being done off emotion alone and that’s how the odds are set.
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They don't usually outright ban you unless you're matched betting i.e exploiting betting offers across multiple platforms, which is a good way to game them in the short term (until their algorithm picks it up). Interesting thing was I didn't even make that much cycling betting, maybe 5 or 6 thousand over the year 2020, but the maximum amount I can now bet on most markets on PP is 10 pence, my Bet365 and Unibet are also throttled. I recall a conversation with Patrick Broe a few years back saying that he was unable to bet through most major Australian bookmakers due to this. Anything high-volume I can bet pretty much any amount on however I.E Barca vs Madrid because there is enough money involved such that they are going to profit either way.
 
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Lequack

Lequack

Jul 10, 2014
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DNP-Old

DNP-Old

Aug 6, 2014
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Red Rick said:
Sounds like Boonen is really big on the. "I love Pogacar. He is the best. Therefor, when he loses there must be some magical external reason for it. " type of reasoning. Then he spun the wheel of fortune and it stopped at "bicycle"
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Is he wrong though? Colnago is trash, despite the improvements they've made over the winter. Plenty of riders have said as much as well. Kristoff for instance absolutely hated it. It is just weird to me how in this era of watt gains UAE are just comfortable accepting mid level product when there's so much room for improvement.

I heard BMC is leaving AG2R after this year. I can't remember how long the Colnago contract runs, but this is a golden ticket if I've ever seen one.
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Red Rick said:
Sounds like Boonen is really big on the. "I love Pogacar. He is the best. Therefor, when he loses there must be some magical external reason for it. " type of reasoning. Then he spun the wheel of fortune and it stopped at "bicycle"
Click to expand...

Everybody knows that but nobody wants to talk about it. Apparently Colnago receives huge money from all WT teams to keep Teddy fully committed to this brand. Otherwise it would be the end of cycling as we know it.
 
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