My guess as to why the sting was a bit off Pogi yesterday in his battle with Jonas is due to a distance of 180k compared to other mountain stages 145-160k short races. I think Jonas would've had the upper hand yesterday if stage has been +200k of mountains.
Not solely due to the stage length itself, but mainly due to maybe just a tad better between-stages recovery, of which is essential so deep into the race.
So as regarding Col de la Loze stage to me it is far from written in the book that Vingegaard will take time on Pogi, mainly due to two reasons
1: again a 166k short mountain stage.
2: Pogi has trained serious altitudes in Sierra Nevada just pre tour.
And this year Pogi seems to have worked on his weaknesses here, besides worked a bit of too eager riding last year. Ofcourse the missing of a double-headed TJV monster turns out natural logics here.
But really can't tell. Don't feel I have a qualified guess of final outcome speaking Tour 2023.
Only guess from here is that this Tour edition will be decided by one of them having just a tiny tad of an off-day. Or by bonus secs.
Btw: Though Jonas is my fellow countryman, I'm a big fan of Pogi, IMO the far best ambassador of our sport. And it's not like I dislike Jonas, think he's a really fine guy too, but his introversy may make him some grumpy enemies out in the big crowd...