Teams & Riders Vingegaard and Pogacar in 2022 and 2023 Tours de France

[Cookster15]

@Tim Cahill :

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Think the loss in 2023 was less to do with the wrist and more to do with not being as good as Vingegaard at climbing big mountains and time trials after 2 weeks of racing, he wasn't really on the shelf for that long, though him riding like an idiot didn't help, he did the same in 2022, hopefully he has a calm head in the car telling him no this time

Brought this over here to not sidetrack the LBL thread. The big time loss in 2023 I am struggling to understand was stage 17. Pogacar lost nearly 6 minutes to Vingegaard on that stage. He had what looked like a minor crash (hard to know for sure) and @Froome claims he suffered gastric problems.

Anyway, its a real shame for Vingegaard's massive crash and serious injuries. While I doubt, even with a gentler Giro parcours and on paper weak competition Pogacar could challenge Vingegaard at the TdF, it may have kept us in suspense until the inevitable.

Agree this time I hope Pogacar and his team try to temper him not to ride like an idiot. Maybe his history and knowing he has the Giro in his legs could force him to pull his head in.

 

[bNator]

@Tim Cahill :

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Brought this over here to not sidetrack the LBL thread. The big time loss in 2023 I am struggling to understand was stage 17. Pogacar lost nearly 6 minutes to Vingegaard on that stage. He had what looked like a minor crash (hard to know for sure) and @Froome claims he suffered gastric problems.

Anyway, its a real shame for Vingegaard's massive crash and serious injuries. While I doubt, even with a gentler Giro parcours and on paper weak competition Pogacar could challenge Vingegaard at the TdF, it may have kept us in suspense until the inevitable.

Agree this time I hope Pogacar and his team try to temper him not to ride like an idiot. Maybe his history and knowing he has the Giro in his legs could force him to pull his head in.

I blame stage 17 to Pog being mentally broken after stage 16. During the rest day, he projected confidence doing silly backflips into a pool, full of bacteria, and the next day - well it was a shock to us viewers, I imagine it must have been a huge blow for him. I was not the least bit surprised to see him get dropped. Sure, it was probably a combination of factors but his head played an important role, in my opinion.

 

[Tim Cahill]

@Tim Cahill :

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Brought this over here to not sidetrack the LBL thread. The big time loss in 2023 I am struggling to understand was stage 17. Pogacar lost nearly 6 minutes to Vingegaard on that stage. He had what looked like a minor crash (hard to know for sure) and @Froome claims he suffered gastric problems.

Anyway, its a real shame for Vingegaard's massive crash and serious injuries. While I doubt, even with a gentler Giro parcours and on paper weak competition Pogacar could challenge Vingegaard at the TdF, it may have kept us in suspense until the inevitable.

Agree this time I hope Pogacar and his team try to temper him not to ride like an idiot. Maybe his history and knowing he has the Giro in his legs could force him to pull his head in.

Yes I think the team needs to make a coherent plan based around the skills Pogacar is better than Vingegaard at, and pinpoint stages where he can realistically take time; Sub-25/30 minute climbs, short sharp bursts, sprints if bonus seconds are there at the finish and don't require much energy, unipuertos, hilly/cobbled classics, he should look to take major time on stage 9 for example (gravel). This all being dependant on both being in good condition of course.

For the past 2 races he has played into Vismas's plan, this time they have no Van Aert or Roglic, 2 out of 3 of their main difference makers, it is their desire to make the race has hard as possible to accumulate fatigue him over 3 weeks, it has worked. He shouldn't be getting involved in random flat sprints, trying to dart out of the bunch multiple times on random transition stages 150k from the line, trying to hit Vingegaard hard on huge mountain stages or shelling all his domestiques to chase down Benoot and Laporte in breakaways. He won't do it, because he's too proud, not that I mind because it definitely is enjoyable to watch, he needs 7 guys round him at all times racing as passively as possible until race situations arise that favour him more than his opponent. When La Bonette comes, don't respond to anything, just ride his tempo with his guys around him like Sky used to, when the final tt arrives he needs to be as fresh as possible. Those final 3 stages are a killer though if I'm honest.

Next season if he's serious about it he should ride the Dauphine instead, take the L if necessary. There's a reason all the top GC riders do it.

I would say, as an aside because I don't think he will, he could try and make it a bit personal with him, bit of needle in the press maybe try and get in his head a bit. I've been impressed with Vingegaard's confidence in stage races recently but I still think there's an underlying insecurity with him and his team, listen to him on the cobbled stage in 2022, to Niermann screeching like a banshee in 2023, them thinking the've lost the whole thing after he got soft-dropped on Cauterets, they can be got at. Remember what Warne said when things were going against him, pick a fight, 'what are you looking at mate?'. The one time I remember Armstrong shelling big time in a Tour stage was Pantani getting in his head in 2000, poking at his insecurities.

 

[Gratemans]

Agreed on all accounts.

On another note, I came to the conclusion that I don't really care who wins the TdF (because come on, the Giro is done and dusted). I just want it to be a bloody good fight. Unfortunately, Itzulia all but seems to have taken that great fight from us. But that's cycling. Asterisks and 'what ifs' all over the place.

Some of my friends don't get why I'm such a fan of cycling. And I actually understand them sometimes

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@Tim Cahill :

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Brought this over here to not sidetrack the LBL thread. The big time loss in 2023 I am struggling to understand was stage 17. Pogacar lost nearly 6 minutes to Vingegaard on that stage. He had what looked like a minor crash (hard to know for sure) and @Froome claims he suffered gastric problems.

Anyway, its a real shame for Vingegaard's massive crash and serious injuries. While I doubt, even with a gentler Giro parcours and on paper weak competition Pogacar could challenge Vingegaard at the TdF, it may have kept us in suspense until the inevitable.

Agree this time I hope Pogacar and his team try to temper him not to ride like an idiot. Maybe his history and knowing he has the Giro in his legs could force him to pull his head in.

What happened in week 3 of last year's Tour was IMO the effect of two weeks of brutal racing against Vingegaard. Pogacar couldn't sustain it for 3 weeks. His disrupted preparations is a likely reason but maybe not.

One can notice that Pogacar already looked so so on stage 15 to St. Gervais, in fact his helper Yates looked better and I was surprised that Vingo kept looking back instead of attacking. It was one day after brutal Morzine stage (inculding Joux Plane battle) and he didn't fully recover. His ITT on stage 16 wasn't absolute peak either (but decent) - there must be a reason why a gap between the two contenders was gigantic despite the two guys being evenly matched before (part of the reason is ridiculous TT by Vingo OFC). Then stage 17 collapse. He never had the power and punch from previous two weeks anymore (post stage 20 he admitted to suffering last week), even his stage 20 victory was hardly impressive, Felix Gall was the main pacesetter there with Pog just the best sprinter from the group. Since Joux Plane never showed punch and power that made everyone (except Skeletor) look like snails.

 

[Cookster15]

What happened in week 3 of last year's Tour was IMO the effect of two weeks of brutal racing against Vingegaard. Pogacar couldn't sustain it for 3 weeks. His disrupted preparations is a likely reason but maybe not.

One can notice that Pogacar already looked so so on stage 15 to St. Gervais, in fact his helper Yates looked better and I was surprised that Vingo kept looking back instead of attacking. It was one day after brutal Morzine stage (inculding Joux Plane battle) and he didn't fully recover. His ITT on stage 16 wasn't absolute peak either (but decent) - there must be a reason why a gap between the two contenders was gigantic despite the two guys being evenly matched before (part of the reason is ridiculous TT by Vingo OFC). Then stage 17 collapse. He never had the power and punch from previous two weeks anymore (post stage 20 he admitted to suffering last week), even his stage 20 victory was hardly impressive, Felix Gall was the main pacesetter there with Pog just the best sprinter from the group. Since Joux Plane never showed punch and power that made everyone (except Skeletor) look like snails.

I still wonder if without the interrupted prep his recovery is better after those brutal stages.

That's why he didn't have the power and punch. Like Morzine. Like the TT and then the stage 17 collapse. Many say Pogacar rode a great TT - he killed everyone except Vingo who was incredible. If you have great condition you recover. If not you get stage 17. And we keep forgetting he's already won two TdFs and one of those was a come from behind against Roglic and Jumbo. So we should not question his recovery. Plus those tour wins were when he was very young. He is still only 25.

Anyway, this might be hope on my part but just applying some facts, logic and reason. In the meantime, I look forward to Sunday.

 

[kn0s]

I still wonder if without the interrupted prep his recovery is better after those brutal stages.

That's why he didn't have the power and punch. Like Morzine. Like the TT and then the stage 17 collapse. Many say Pogacar rode a great TT - he killed everyone except Vingo who was incredible. If you have great condition you recover. If not you get stage 17. And we keep forgetting he's already won two TdFs and one of those was a come from behind against Roglic and Jumbo. So we should not question his recovery. Plus those tour wins were when he was very young. He is still only 25.

Anyway, this might be hope on my part but just applying some facts, logic and reason. In the meantime, I look forward to Sunday.

This has been discussed till death. And mostly comes down to what you cherry pick to fit want you want (not an attack on your posts, it's fine).

Think the most "truth" you are going to get is just looking at the results straight up. When it comes to the tour we have seen pogi mostly beating Jonas in sprints or within 20 seconds. Jonas has put in plus one minute a few times. Pogi has more stages that fit his strength's so it could even out if everything is equal.

Now everything that isn't equal can be discussed but almost always falls back to what you personally believe.

 

[Red Rick]

I still wonder if without the interrupted prep his recovery is better after those brutal stages.

That's why he didn't have the power and punch. Like Morzine. Like the TT and then the stage 17 collapse. Many say Pogacar rode a great TT - he killed everyone except Vingo who was incredible. If you have great condition you recover. If not you get stage 17. And we keep forgetting he's already won two TdFs and one of those was a come from behind against Roglic and Jumbo. So we should not question his recovery. Plus those tour wins were when he was very young. He is still only 25.

Anyway, this might be hope on my part but just applying some facts, logic and reason. In the meantime, I look forward to Sunday.

I think it was obvious his ITT wasn't his best. Yeah he put 1'30 in Van Aert but it's a sub 40kph sem MTT and Van Aerts TTs had been really down from the year before.

Basically if you're dropping Vingegaard at the end of fresh 30-40 minute watts/kg tests, then you shouldn't drop 90s in an ITT when you yourself are the bigger rider. In addition, he lost only like 20s to Vingegaard in the longer 2022 ITT and that was when he was getting dropped hard on Hautacam.

In addition, I thought it was very obvious he was bad on Les Bettex and Vingegaard just didn't have the stones to try to attack.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think it was obvious his ITT wasn't his best. Yeah he put 1'30 in Van Aert but it's a sub 40kph sem MTT and Van Aerts TTs had been really down from the year before.

Basically if you're dropping Vingegaard at the end of fresh 30-40 minute watts/kg tests, then you shouldn't drop 90s in an ITT when you yourself are the bigger rider. In addition, he lost only like 20s to Vingegaard in the longer 2022 ITT and that was when he was getting dropped hard on Hautacam.

In addition, I thought it was very obvious he was bad on Les Bettex and Vingegaard just didn't have the stones to try to attack.

I just don't understand how anyone can look at the time gaps in that time trial and come to any conclusion other than "Pogacar was great, Vingegaard was historically great". If that wasn't Pogacar at his best, what was? LPdBF 2020? When Pogacar gained the same amount of time on WvA in a longer and even slower TT?
Same thing with claiming Pogacar was bad on Les Bettex. He tried to bait Vingegaard into attacking, Vingegaard didn't bite, so Pogacar did his usual final km accelaration with which he gained like 40 seconds in a km on the other gc guys but couldn't drop Vingegaard. Was it his best day of the Tour? Probably not, but there is just no evidence of him being bad.

I honestly don't get it. Why are people who don't even think Pogacar is better than Vingegaard looking at those performances saying "he clearly wasn't at his best here, he was obviously bad there,..." instead of just saying "Vingegaard at his peak is a better gc rider than Pogacar at his peak". Saying he had bad days on these stages is what I would expect coping Pogacar fans to say, not someone who thinks Vingegaard is superior for which these two stages are perfect examples. It's the same as saying Pogacar never made any commital attacks in 2022. Yes he did. He attacked like mad on the Spandelles, Vingegaard was just stronger. Nothing to do with Pogacar not trying enough.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I just don't understand how anyone can look at the time gaps in that time trial and come to any conclusion other than "Pogacar was great, Vingegaard was historically great". If that wasn't Pogacar at his best, what was? LPdBF 2020? When Pogacar gained the same amount of time on WvA in a longer and even slower TT?
Same thing with claiming Pogacar was bad on Les Bettex. He tried to bait Vingegaard into attacking, Vingegaard didn't bite, so Pogacar did his usual final km accelaration with which he gained like 40 seconds in a km on the other gc guys but couldn't drop Vingegaard. Was it his best day of the Tour? Probably not, but there is just no evidence of him being bad.

I honestly don't get it. Why are people who don't even think Pogacar is better than Vingegaard looking at those performances saying "he clearly wasn't at his best here, he was obviously bad there,..." instead of just saying "Vingegaard at his peak is a better gc rider than Pogacar at his peak". Saying he had bad days on these stages is what I would expect coping Pogacar fans to say, not someone who thinks Vingegaard is superior for which these two stages are perfect examples. It's the same as saying Pogacar never made any commital attacks in 2022. Yes he did. He attacked like mad on the Spandelles, Vingegaard was just stronger. Nothing to do with Pogacar not trying enough.

It just makes no sense for Pogačar to lose 1‘40“ in a TT if he‘s in top condition. If that is him being „great“, then Vingegaard could have late stage cancer and still drop him on the Tourmalet because the difference between the two of them would be massive. If late career Contador dropped 1‘40“ to Froome in that TT that would have to mean Contador wasn‘t great, right?

 

[topcat]

I just don't understand how anyone can look at the time gaps in that time trial and come to any conclusion other than "Pogacar was great, Vingegaard was historically great". If that wasn't Pogacar at his best, what was? LPdBF 2020? When Pogacar gained the same amount of time on WvA in a longer and even slower TT?
Same thing with claiming Pogacar was bad on Les Bettex. He tried to bait Vingegaard into attacking, Vingegaard didn't bite, so Pogacar did his usual final km accelaration with which he gained like 40 seconds in a km on the other gc guys but couldn't drop Vingegaard. Was it his best day of the Tour? Probably not, but there is just no evidence of him being bad.

I honestly don't get it. Why are people who don't even think Pogacar is better than Vingegaard looking at those performances saying "he clearly wasn't at his best here, he was obviously bad there,..." instead of just saying "Vingegaard at his peak is a better gc rider than Pogacar at his peak". Saying he had bad days on these stages is what I would expect coping Pogacar fans to say, not someone who thinks Vingegaard is superior for which these two stages are perfect examples. It's the same as saying Pogacar never made any commital attacks in 2022. Yes he did. He attacked like mad on the Spandelles, Vingegaard was just stronger. Nothing to do with Pogacar not trying enough.

Agreed (and I consider this blatantly obvious).

 

[Nick2413]

That TT was god mode by Vingegaard and it seems hard to imagine even he being able to replicate it again. But Pogacar was clearly a step below last 2 years, no amount of tactics or wrist recovery would’ve changed the results. He is still within range of making that step up though, but we might have to wait until 2025 to see it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm simply saying that if someone has an all time great performance, it's perfectly possible for someone else to be great and still lose. Last year MvdP was obviously phenomenal in every one day race he aimed for, yet in the Ronde he was dropped like a stone by Pogacar. Does it mean he was worse in the Ronde than in all those other races? No, he was still the same guy, riding in the same shape, having a great performance. Pogacar being even better doesn't change that.

MVP lost by 16 seconds after 273 km of brutal racing. Pogacar by 98 seconds in a 22 km time trial. The gap doesn't makes sense if you think it's only because of Vingegaard (considering how close they were before). Last part of Pogacars ITT was poor by his standards. I think it was both: thermonuclear performance by Vingo and not the best one by Pog. Still, even the best Pog would've lost it methinks (UAE mentioned around 50 seconds loss if everything went well, obviously only a speculation but says something about their performance expectations).

 

[Froome]

MVP lost by 16 seconds after 273 km of brutal racing. Pogacar by 98 seconds in a 22 km time trial. The gap doesn't makes sense if you think it's only because of Vingegaard (considering how close they were before).

Pogacar said in a interview after the Tour that he could had done at best 40 s better than what he did.

So, he would lose 1 minute to Vingegaard on that case.

The 2 premises are true at the same time.

Vingegaard did a great TT. Pogacar did a solid TT but he could had done a little better like he said.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar could be 40 seconds faster, everybody knows that. However he would still be one minute slower than Vingegaard and that is crazy. Vingegaard's TT is probably the best individual performance since Indurain in Luxembourg.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar said in a interview after the Tour that he could had done at best 40 s better than what he did.

So, he would lose 1 minute to Vingegaard on that case.

The 2 premises are true at the same time.

Vingegaard did a great TT. Pogacar did a solid TT but he could had done a little better like he said.

I edited my post, see above. I agree that it was both factors with peak vs peak gap closer to the middle of the actual one.

 

[Netserk]

MVP lost by 16 seconds after 273 km of brutal racing. Pogacar by 98 seconds in a 22 km time trial. The gap doesn't makes sense if you think it's only because of Vingegaard (considering how close they were before). Last part of Pogacars ITT was poor by his standards. I think it was both: thermonuclear performance by Vingo and not the best one by Pog. Still, even the best Pog would've lost it methinks (UAE mentioned around 50 seconds loss if everything went well, obviously only a speculation but says something about their performance expectations).

That's the crazy part. Even if Pogi had been one minute faster than he was, that would still have been a big gap between them. Otherworldly.

 

[yaf]

View: https://youtu.be/xJuqRberH48?si=RQrtObXesMpj-vF9

From 17:15 remco explains how the body gets tired just for healing the bones even if u dont train and that he feels tired after a night of sleep. I still cant believe how pogacar managed the gc to be in 10 secs after the 2nd rest day with all the attacks for two weeks while his broken hand was still healing. It was evident for everyone to see his power was going down from stage 15 onwards. Some guys on this thread believe vingegaard was the better time trialist and pog was beaten by the better man😖 well listen to remco and u will realize how pog did a superhuman thing

 

[Red Rick]

I just don't understand how anyone can look at the time gaps in that time trial and come to any conclusion other than "Pogacar was great, Vingegaard was historically great". If that wasn't Pogacar at his best, what was? LPdBF 2020? When Pogacar gained the same amount of time on WvA in a longer and even slower TT?
Same thing with claiming Pogacar was bad on Les Bettex. He tried to bait Vingegaard into attacking, Vingegaard didn't bite, so Pogacar did his usual final km accelaration with which he gained like 40 seconds in a km on the other gc guys but couldn't drop Vingegaard. Was it his best day of the Tour? Probably not, but there is just no evidence of him being bad.

I honestly don't get it. Why are people who don't even think Pogacar is better than Vingegaard looking at those performances saying "he clearly wasn't at his best here, he was obviously bad there,..." instead of just saying "Vingegaard at his peak is a better gc rider than Pogacar at his peak". Saying he had bad days on these stages is what I would expect coping Pogacar fans to say, not someone who thinks Vingegaard is superior for which these two stages are perfect examples. It's the same as saying Pogacar never made any commital attacks in 2022. Yes he did. He attacked like mad on the Spandelles, Vingegaard was just stronger. Nothing to do with Pogacar not trying enough.

Pogacar underperforming is a much more plausible explanation for the 1'38 time gap than 'top rider just magically gets 20W faster for no reason'. The entire field was suffering from fatigue and most were likely doing worse numbers than they would have done in a fresh ITT.

Pogacar and Vingegaard were miles and miles better than everyone else on the big climbs, and they were also the best ITTers of the GC riders. 1'30 over the Yates bro's simply is not that much in a hard ~ 35 minute ITT when you're supposed to be the one recovering better.

Compared to 2022, Pogacar was putting Vingegaard under severe pressure on the climbs between Cambasque and Morgine. Clearly an improvement in relative level over 2022, and then he goes from losing 9s in a 50 minute ITT to losing 1'38 in a 35 minute ITT?

It's like asking when gaps in mountain stages are the biggest vs when performances are highest. 0 kJ in legs unipuerto is definitely when performances are highest, but it's sure as hell not when gaps are greatest.

IMO what really happened Pogacar had a big gap over the rest of the field so people didn't question if he shouldn't have put much more time into the schmuks, which in turn is treating Pogacar like your regular top GC rider instead of Tadej mother******** Pogacar

 

[Peyroteo94]

View: https://youtu.be/xJuqRberH48?si=RQrtObXesMpj-vF9

From 17:15 remco explains how the body gets tired just for healing the bones even if u dont train and that he feels tired after a night of sleep. I still cant believe how pogacar managed the gc to be in 10 secs after the 2nd rest day with all the attacks for two weeks while his broken hand was still healing. It was evident for everyone to see his power was going down from stage 15 onwards. Some guys on this thread believe vingegaard was the better time trialist and pog was beaten by the better man😖 well listen to remco and u will realize how pog did a superhuman thing

And we don't even know how his preparation hurt his ceilling, not just his recovery.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Vingegaard's TT is probably the best individual performance since Indurain in Luxembourg.

This +Ullrich in Saint-Etienne pushing 495 watts for 29 minutes on Croix de Chaubouret.

And I would also add Cancellara in 2009 worlds, where he caught three riders, while riding like he was on rails. Which I would also use to describe the effort of Jonas. He prepared this itt to perfection and took every corner 100% ideal on race line.

Pogacar couldn't do such a good prep, like he did for the final ITT of 2020. It's not possible, when you can't train on your ITT bike.

 

[Netserk]

Some guys on this thread believe vingegaard was the better time trialist

Yes, just like the year before.

 

[Red Rick]

View: https://youtu.be/xJuqRberH48?si=RQrtObXesMpj-vF9

From 17:15 remco explains how the body gets tired just for healing the bones even if u dont train and that he feels tired after a night of sleep. I still cant believe how pogacar managed the gc to be in 10 secs after the 2nd rest day with all the attacks for two weeks while his broken hand was still healing. It was evident for everyone to see his power was going down from stage 15 onwards. Some guys on this thread believe vingegaard was the better time trialist and pog was beaten by the better man😖 well listen to remco and u will realize how pog did a superhuman thing

Evenepoel did a lot more breaking and healing than Pogacar did.

 

[velaso montador]

This constant need to compare ppl to Pogacar 2022 - after the crash where the man broke his wrist and the man himself countless of time said he rode with pain dicussion is truly remarkeable if not anything else.

Friendly suggestion to open a own thread for this very topic Pogacar 2022 after crash or TDf 22 or whatever. Dicussing how effected he was or was not after breaking the wrist and having to prep in not ideal condition effecting his training or not and judging ppl to that version seems to heavy alot on some peoples mind.

 

[Gigs_98]

Pogacar underperforming is a much more plausible explanation for the 1'38 time gap than 'top rider just magically gets 20W faster for no reason'. The entire field was suffering from fatigue and most were likely doing worse numbers than they would have done in a fresh ITT.

Pogacar and Vingegaard were miles and miles better than everyone else on the big climbs, and they were also the best ITTers of the GC riders. 1'30 over the Yates bro's simply is not that much in a hard ~ 35 minute ITT when you're supposed to be the one recovering better.

Compared to 2022, Pogacar was putting Vingegaard under severe pressure on the climbs between Cambasque and Morgine. Clearly an improvement in relative level over 2022, and then he goes from losing 9s in a 50 minute ITT to losing 1'38 in a 35 minute ITT?

It's like asking when gaps in mountain stages are the biggest vs when performances are highest. 0 kJ in legs unipuerto is definitely when performances are highest, but it's sure as hell not when gaps are greatest.

IMO what really happened Pogacar had a big gap over the rest of the field so people didn't question if he shouldn't have put much more time into the schmuks, which in turn is treating Pogacar like your regular top GC rider instead of Tadej mother******** Pogacar

Had you asked people before that stage how big Pogacars time gap to anyone bar Vingegaard would be, I think the answer would have looked pretty much like the actual result. Gaining 1'30 over the Yates bros doesn't seem like much when you make it sound like a monster TT with huge time gaps, but that's not at all what it was. The time gaps were really small throughout the field so 1'30 was a huge margin.

I mean, clearly the gap between Vingegaard and Pogacar was a result of different levels of recovery. But I just don't think you can call that "Pogacar underperforming" if his recovery compared to the rest of the field was exactly how it was supposed to be.