If Vingegaard loses the Tour, it will also be hrd for him to make the Vuelta against Pogacar.This hard pace of Visma will work unfortunately, not for the Tour but for the Vuelta. Pogacar is mentally tired.
Pogacar would arrive mentally stronger.
I still think it's the best year to do the Vuelta.
Tour-Vuelta is hard, the older he is, more difficult. He has to do it at his peak.