Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Cookster15]

Of course every rider is an individual but a Belgian kermesse rider will not hold the wheel of a 130 lb. Columbian or Ecuadorian climber...likely ever above 2000 to 3000m.

Not "ever". I reckon coming from a kermesse (criterium) background is way more relevant than coming from sea level. Jonas Vingegaard comes from sea level. Columbian or Ecuadorian climbers do not always prevail at high altitude. Like when Pog caught and dropped 130 lb Quintana on the Livigno stage in the 2024 Giro.

 

[hayneplane]

Example of Pogacar not being the strongest and still winning based on race intelligence?

More that it is every bit as much a rarity for MVDP to win on cunning rather than brutal power.

 

[Berniece]

Would be very hard to find because he's (almost) always the strongest. My point is that if you are the strongest, you want tactics to play as little role as possible. That's why Pogacar, MvdP, Remco, do solos whenever possible. Because unless Pogacar's 2025 Amstel happens you're basically guaranteed to win, whereas with tactics you are much more likely to lose

Sure, but in MSR he can't only rely on strength. That's all Nibali is saying. Pogacar has tried now to only go on strength for what? 3-4 seasons? It doesn't seem to work.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I mean i often felt Pogi was racing foolishly but in the end it worked. If you can get away with 50km to 100km solos, then IMHO you don't need any real finesse or much thinking about it, you just do that. As for MSR the terrain is less suitable but it's not like Pogi won't be there in that final elite group each time.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Sure, but in MSR he can't only rely on strength. That's all Nibali is saying. Pogacar has tried now to only go on strength for what? 3-4 seasons? It doesn't seem to work.

There's absolutely no way Pogacar can just sneak away, he has the biggest target of anyone ever and he is very unlikely to win a sprint so what exactly could he do other than try to go solo?

 

[dercuforever]

Sure, but in MSR he can't only rely on strength. That's all Nibali is saying. Pogacar has tried now to only go on strength for what? 3-4 seasons? It doesn't seem to work.

It should work if
1) lets say del Toro pushes as hard as Pogacar attacks the first time, with Pogacar on the wheel.
2) VDP is not 100%
Then Pogacar attacks and once he has a gap, it's over.

 

[Shortcut]

Sure, but in MSR he can't only rely on strength. That's all Nibali is saying. Pogacar has tried now to only go on strength for what? 3-4 seasons? It doesn't seem to work.

He can rely only on strenght because it worked (he didn't win but it worked like never before at Cipressa). He didn't cracked only MvDP because MVDP is perfect rider for MSR and would win against Pogi in 90% (we will se if 100%) cases, if some bad luck doesn't happen. His only possibilty to be "smart" is just bluffing and not attacking so MvDP needs to make a move, but that would be stupid because there is also Philipsen in Alpecin. Some people are saying he should to nothing and just wait for sprint.. do they even know there is descent and flat section in last 7 km, that is for sprinters too easy and they can be fresh enough to destroy Pogi. IMO there is only one way-trying it already on Berta with someone from UAE and hoping peloton is reduced to 20 guys and Wellens, Del Toro and Narvaez need to prepare perfect attack at Cipressa. Only Narvaez is not enough.

 

[Oldman]

Not "ever". I reckon coming from a kermesse (criterium) background is way more relevant than coming from sea level. Jonas Vingegaard comes from sea level. Columbian or Ecuadorian climbers do not always prevail at high altitude. Like when Pog caught and dropped 130 lb Quintana on the Livigno stage in the 2024 Giro.

That is what I said except "likely ever" is how I phrased it. It relates to commentary about Remco's possible improvement in long climbs: what would it take? Geraint Thomas was a WC pursuiter and, as a big guy managed to become an exceptional climber. I would wager he was doing intervals like the training I witnessed in Malibu Canyon and those climbs rather than max effort/short recovery pursuit efforts. Back to Pidcock and we could assume he also made length/intensity adjustments for his improvement.

 

[Oldman]

It should work if
1) lets say del Toro pushes as hard as Pogacar attacks the first time, with Pogacar on the wheel.
2) VDP is not 100%
Then Pogacar attacks and once he has a gap, it's over.

Not likely. MvP rarely gets pushed to max unless he's forced to close a gap in long mountain climbs. Shorter climbs... Then there is almost never anyone around him that can attack.

 

[YavorD]

IMO there is only one way-trying it already on Berta with someone from UAE and hoping peloton is reduced to 20 guys and Wellens, Del Toro and Narvaez need to prepare perfect attack at Cipressa. Only Narvaez is not enough.

IMO it's impossible to reduce the peloton to 20 riders without including Del Toro, Narvaez or Wellens.
However, in a certain scenario they decide to try it that way, including one of the three, and 20-25 odd people start Cipress, what does MVDP do if Pog"s team mate attacks? He waits for Phillipsen, who is 20 seconds behind and destroys himself to close the gap? He doesn't care and that rider (and possibly others get away? Or he follows the attack, burning some matches?
I know that's unlikely to happen as Pog is trying to win the race for himself, but that may be the best way to kill Van Der Poel.

 

[Berniece]

There's absolutely no way Pogacar can just sneak away, he has the biggest target of anyone ever and he is very unlikely to win a sprint so what exactly could he do other than try to go solo?

Ask the goat Eddy Merckx who won it 7 times, different ways too.

 

[AmRacer]

Ask the goat Eddy Merckx who won it 7 times, different ways too.

Different competition

 

[Shortcut]

IMO it's impossible to reduce the peloton to 20 riders without including Del Toro, Narvaez or Wellens.
However, in a certain scenario they decide to try it that way, including one of the three, and 20-25 odd people start Cipress, what does MVDP do if Pog"s team mate attacks? He waits for Phillipsen, who is 20 seconds behind and destroys himself to close the gap? He doesn't care and that rider (and possibly others get away? Or he follows the attack, burning some matches?
I know that's unlikely to happen as Pog is trying to win the race for himself, but that may be the best way to kill Van Der Poel.

Of course they need to include one of those 3 guys already there and IMO they should do it with Del Toro because that is only scenario, where he will be good positioned before Cipressa. Del Toro should be able to survive from Berta to Cipressa even if he goes all in at Berta. The other thing you mentioned, what would MvDP do even someone else from UAE attacks.. there is nobody else who could distance himself (from UAE team) at Poggio because there are still good riders and they would survive any attack. So MvDP don't need to close a gap and needs to care just about Pogacar.

 

[bNator]

Ask the goat Eddy Merckx who won it 7 times, different ways too.

Perhaps it all comes down to Merckx being lucky no MvdP was around. Pogi would have won a couple of MSR by now if he was as lucky as Merckx in that respect…

 

[Shortcut]

Ask the goat Eddy Merckx who won it 7 times, different ways too.

Are you serious? So if Pogacar wins GdL 8 times and because Eddy won it just twice, is Eddy than really a GOAT? We can do that all they.

 

[Red Rick]

Example of Pogacar not being the strongest and still winning based on race intelligence?

Can we instead just go to examples of him trying his best to lose because not enough oxygen goes to his head.

 

[bNator]

Sure, but in MSR he can't only rely on strength. That's all Nibali is saying. Pogacar has tried now to only go on strength for what? 3-4 seasons? It doesn't seem to work.

Pogi is the one who doesn’t rely on strength in this case. MvdP and Phillipsen are, because they can. Pogi can’t rely on strength because he knows he’s not strong enough to win unless he manages to shake them off somehow, which he is trying to do. One could say he’s relying on his strength during the process of trying to shake them off but one could also say he’s relying on his cunning. But if Nibali is implying he could somehow lay low (like he did) and surprise his opponents (therefore increasing his cunning/strength ratio), he has no idea how big a marker Pog wears on his back.

 

[Panda Claws]

Pogi is the one who doesn’t rely on strength in this case. MvdP and Phillipsen are, because they can. Pogi can’t rely on strength because he knows he’s not strong enough to win unless he manages to shake them off somehow, which he is trying to do. One could say he’s relying on his strength during the process of trying to shake them off but one could also say he’s relying on his cunning. But if Nibali is implying he could somehow lay low (like he did) and surprise his opponents (therefore increasing his cunning/strength ratio), he has no idea how big a marker Pog wears on his back.

Come on. You can't say that trying to drop someone is relying on cunning. That is dropping the bar through the floor.

 

[Panda Claws]

Are you serious? So if Pogacar wins GdL 8 times and because Eddy won it just twice, is Eddy than really a GOAT? We can do that all they.

Not really the same when GdL is almost impossible to lose when you and your team are that much stronger than the field.
RVV is a similar story. Much easier to win if you're the strongest on the new course vs. The pre-2012 one.

 

[Berniece]

Perhaps it all comes down to Merckx being lucky no MvdP was around. Pogi would have won a couple of MSR by now if he was as lucky as Merckx in that respect…

Don't get me started on how lucky Pogacar has already been with barely any opposition because they crashed out before major races.

But sure, if you want to say that Eddy Merckx was lucky with 525 victories, go ahead.

 

[Salvarani]

Big talk from someone whose favorite had riders crashing out in their major wins. Riders abandon their GT that they won.

Or just shunned to race against the best for years. Picking races where nobody showed up but him and who has the worst WT-record given how talented he supposedly is.

 

[Salvarani]

2023 Il Lombardia? Don't know if that qualifies as "winning based on race intelligence" but that was when Pogi attacked just as the descent from Ganda started and the G2 syndrome just immediately kicked in.

Yup, that was a smart move. They hesitated and he got a gap. He wasnt in the best shape after injury, Tour and worlds but won that Lombardia by attacking at the right time. Being able to hold off the chase. Would definitely say that was race intelligence.

 

[AmRacer]

Don't get me started on how lucky Pogacar has already been with barely any opposition because they crashed out before major races.

But sure, if you want to say that Eddy Merckx was lucky with 525 victories, go ahead.

That's how, and why, Remco won the 2022 Vuelta.

 

[bNator]

Don't get me started on how lucky Pogacar has already been with barely any opposition because they crashed out before major races.

But sure, if you want to say that Eddy Merckx was lucky with 525 victories, go ahead.

Saying he was lucky his opposition was not stronger is not the same as saying he lucked into 525 victories and you know it.

Claiming Pogacar is lucky with opposition on the other hand, is ridiculous... What are you even talking about? There are 2 of his major wins which have his main opponent compromised/eliminated due to crash: TdF 2021 and TdF 2024 and both of them he won so convincingly it's really hard to argue it was luck. And that's it in my book. But please, do enlighten me...

Pogacar has some of the strongest competition in cycling. He is dealing at the same time with MvdP who is going to turn out to be one one the best one-day racers of all time and Vingegaard with whom they have been 1st/2nd for a whopping 5 times in a row now.

 

[YavorD]

That's how, and why, Remco won the 2022 Vuelta.

And his 2 LBL. And to an extent his WC and OGRR.