Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Keldergoat]

Ironically, this is also bad news for MvdP. A scenario like last year was, in a way, perfect for him.

 

[Berniece]

Don’t think Wellens being out matters much. Del Toro had to launch him anyway and might do the work of Narvaez and Wellens combined. If you already think MSR is over, don’t bother starting and join De Lie

 

[rafa92]

who will be at msr at this point to replace wellens and narvaez? I think christen can do a good job replacing wellens if he gets to cipressa in good position, in any case the outcome will heavily depend on del toro, he has to enter cipressa well and do a monster performance there

 

[Jan the Man]

Don’t think Wellens being out matters much. Del Toro had to launch him anyway and might do the work of Narvaez and Wellens combined. If you already think MSR is over, don’t bother starting and join De Lie

Agreed- it won’t make a huge difference either way. Vermeersch can do the job going into the Cipressa. As long as Del Torro’s positioning is improved, I suspect he was always going to be the launch pad, and this won’t change the calculus for Pog. Ultimately he knows he will have to be the one to drop MvP in MSR. Doubt it will happen, but he will try and try again.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Don’t think Wellens being out matters much. Del Toro had to launch him anyway and might do the work of Narvaez and Wellens combined. If you already think MSR is over, don’t bother starting and join De Lie

If unable to setup the launch pad on Cipressa it might be a good time to go with the Del Toro attack first and see what MVDP/Alpicin do. Ultimately UAE need to make it hard enough that Philipsen and Groves (who is being undercooked) aren’t a factor.

 

[fenns]

maybe Del Toro will attack and Pogacar let him go

 

[SHAD0W93]

maybe Del Toro will attack and Pogacar let him go

Best outcome is Del Toro attacks hard with MVDP covering and then Pogacar counters. Just would need enough time for the descent and run in since if it’s a handful of seconds MVDP should crawl them back. Or if all three are together they can take turns attacking MVDP to wear him out.

 

[HashRouge]

Everyone speaks as though the Cipressa attack was a certainty again this year. But it only works if there is a tailwind on the road between the Cipressa and the Poggio, right? Otherwise a solo Pog will always get brought back by the peloton. So we don't know that he will be able to launch on the Cipressa this year anyway. We all know MSR is a tricky one for him, I don't know that this makes him less likely to win, because I don't see him as that likely to win it really anyway. He needs a fair bit of luck.

 

[canina82]

Everyone speaks as though the Cipressa attack was a certainty again this year. But it only works if there is a tailwind on the road between the Cipressa and the Poggio, right? Otherwise a solo Pog will always get brought back by the peloton. So we don't know that he will be able to launch on the Cipressa this year anyway. We all know MSR is a tricky one for him, I don't know that this makes him less likely to win, because I don't see him as that likely to win it really anyway. He needs a fair bit of luck.

No, they don't catch him if there is a headwind between Cipressa and Poggio. The most important is not having a headwind in Cipressa.

 

[Red Rick]

No, they don't catch him if there is a headwind between Cipressa and Poggio. The most important is not having a headwind in Cipressa.

It's in the same direction.

You need the tailwind to sufficiently split the group. Without split groups, the Cipressa record is still only like 1'20 faster than when Cavendish won Sanremo and it was 100 men over the top.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Saying it doesn't matter much that Tim is out, is cope, it is huuuuge. Will need never seen before level of legs as well as even more luck to win MSR now.

On the former, word is Pog is training like a man possessed. And we know that fortune favours the brave.

 

[Savant12]

Not long to go now for the return of the king.

 

[HashRouge]

Who do UAE take instead of Wellens and Narvaez? What would Cosnefroy be like in this sort of situation?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So they won't have that much horsepower up Cipressa. They may try an attack on Cipressa but if it fails (or the wind is bad) then retreat and wait till Poggio. Maybe UAE should use two men to attack interchangeably (Del Toro and Pogacar) and make MVP work more. Brute force attack by one man hasn't proven successful against MVP so far.

 

[Salvarani]

Who do UAE take instead of Wellens and Narvaez? What would Cosnefroy be like in this sort of situation?

Cosnefroy, Christen, Morgado, Vermaerke, McNulty... are some I could see race it instead.

Right now... Del Toro, Novak, Vermeersch and Pog listed. Could probably see a Politt orJohansen be included as well. Open spots after that.

 

[Berniece]

If unable to setup the launch pad on Cipressa it might be a good time to go with the Del Toro attack first and see what MVDP/Alpicin do. Ultimately UAE need to make it hard enough that Philipsen and Groves (who is being undercooked) aren’t a factor.

With how Del Toro is riding, they should always try to use him as a co-leader or free role. He seems more explosive than Pogacar, could destroy MVDP with the two of them

 

[James M]

even without domestique help Pog would gap everyone except MVDP. I just can't see how he drops the Dutchman on the Cipressa - there just aren't the gradients.

Think its a good thing to try something else but then again what. Honestly noone benefits more from crazy leadout from UAE than Mvdp on these gradients no matter who you throw at him its to shallow and short they can drop everyone but not him and he benefits the most.

Its almost mission impossible for the time being. I think they have found a recipe for success later with last year(that tactic also severly influenced by the wind which you cannot control), but not with the current MvdP

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Think its a good thing to try something else but then again what. Honestly noone benefits more from crazy leadout from UAE than Mvdp on these gradients no matter who you throw at him its to shallow and short they can drop everyone but not him and he benefits the most.

Its almost mission impossible for the time being. I think they have found a recipe for success later with last year(that tactic also severly influenced by the wind which you cannot control), but not with the current MvdP

Brute force on Cipressa looked very nice last year and could work vs other guys but with MVP around it's problematic. They should go more tactically maybe, attacks by Del Toro and Pogi interchangeably forcing MVP to chase. Not just hard pace and furious attacks by Pogi alone all the time.

 

[Berniece]

They should go more tactically maybe, attacks by Del Toro and Pogi interchangeably forcing MVP to chase. Not just hard pace and furious attacks by Pogi alone all the time.

Indeed, just do this. Only issue I see with this is that MVDP would drop Del Toro, and I'm not sure Pogacar is going to wait

 

[Salvarani]

Brute force on Cipressa looked very nice last year and could work vs other guys but with MVP around it's problematic. They should go more tactically maybe, attacks by Del Toro and Pogi interchangeably forcing MVP to chase. Not just hard pace and furious attacks by Pogi alone all the time.

UAE needs to make it hard.

What happens after that is racing and is hard to predict.

Pog tried to drop everyone on Cipressa last year, MVDP could follow. After that it was just racing and improvising, which they maybe learned something from. Who knows.

The plan should most likely be to make it hard again. Then go from there. If Del Toro is also there and they could use their numbers, cool. But no one really knows this right now. That depends a lot on positioning into Cipressa, if the plan is for Del Toro to be the last man before an attempt to attack again or not.

The plan is pretty simple in that regard, but probably the most effective. Explode the race, see what happens. Again, after that it is just racing and circumstances playing the biggest factor.

I dont see much alternatives other than making it harder earlier or just trying the same tactic again on Cipressa, right now. There will always be some room to improvise here and multiple scenarios are possible.

 

[James M]

Brute force on Cipressa looked very nice last year and could work vs other guys but with MVP around it's problematic. They should go more tactically maybe, attacks by Del Toro and Pogi interchangeably forcing MVP to chase. Not just hard pace and furious attacks by Pogi alone all the time.

Maybe just completely yolo Berta to try something different and hope it trigger an unforeseen scenario they have nothing to lose.

Or wait for Poggio yes and let Del Toro attack and force MvdP into the wind and hope he does, then grim reaper counter as soon as he closes the gap I mean you have to gamble something on these oompa loompa % so why not

Whole key is to expose MvdP to the wind somehow cause the drag penalty is to massively detrimental at this gradient

 

[fenns]

Merckx once attacked on Capo Berta

 

[Cycling111]

Merckx once attacked on Capo Berta

It was a different era of cycling, without earpieces and the peloton wasn't organized like now.

Furthermore, without the current bike developments, Capo Berta was more selective.

 

[fenns]

It was a different era of cycling, without earpieces and the peloton wasn't organized like now.

Furthermore, without the current bike developments, Capo Berta was more selective.

gotta try something different - he's just not going to drop MVDP on Cipressa whatever he tries

other than that go for a team win and act a decoy

 

[rafa92]

It was a different era of cycling, without earpieces and the peloton wasn't organized like now.

Furthermore, without the current bike developments, Capo Berta was more selective.

people do not realise that sanremo was a much more selective race in the past, every year that passes the course gets less selective, even though the profile does not change, simply because everything from materials to the riders' level gets better, and drafting becomes a huge factor. In my estimate if pogacar didn't race, even with van der poel at the start, the race would be decided by a sprint in a group of 15-50 riders depending on the year