Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[CyclistAbi]

Pogi will work with Remco.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Pogi will work with Remco.

He just might. Pog knows he can drop Remco on the later hills and the harder the race gets the more likely it is that MVDP, Pedersen and WVA will also get dropped. If a sprint will decide the outcome (quite unlikely) then Pog is rather facing Remco than anyone of the others.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm not sure I agree with this take. There are a couple of scenarios I can see potentially happening:
1. Remco is the only rider who can follow Pogacar on the final climb. Remco being there makes it even less likely that the chasing group catch them, as Remco will definitely work. However, Remco has a chance to beat Pogacar in the sprint, so this is a worse scenario for Pog compared to 2023 and 2025.
2. Remco is dropped on the final climb. However, Remco's presence in a chasing group makes it more likely that Pogacar is caught, as he is probably the best rider out there for a 15km chase on flat roads.
3. Remco is dropped earlier or doesn't feature in the finale. This neither helps nor hinders Pogacar.

I still think Pogacar is the favourite, I just disagree that Remco's presence helps him. I think it makes things slightly harder.

The second scenario is the worst for Pogacar and the most likely of those three. Remco (and MVP) are dropped by Pogacar on Kwaremont but are close enough (i.e. not more than 15 seconds back) and Remco brings back MVP, who smokes Pogacar in the sprint. MVP alone (and guys behind) won't be able to catch Pog but with Remco's help the duo might just make it. For Pogacar it would be better if Remco is ahead (or enough behind) MVP on the last climb.

 

[AmRacer]

The second scenario is the worst for Pogacar and the most likely of those three. Remco (and MVP) are dropped by Pogacar on Kwaremont but are close enough (i.e. not more than 15 seconds back) and Remco brings back MVP, who smokes Pogacar in the sprint. MVP alone (and guys behind) won't be able to catch Pog but with Remco's help the duo might just make it.

But Remco will also lose, he knows he cannot win a sprint against those guys.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But Remco will also lose, he knows he cannot win a sprint against those guys.

He will choose the sprint for 1st than for 2nd. Obviously MVP would cooperate with him.

 

[AmRacer]

He will choose the sprint for 1st than for 2nd. Obviously MVP would cooperate with him.

Maybe Wout and Mads tag along

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Maybe Wout and Mads tag along

Wout, Mads and everyone else will be too far behind Pogacar after all those hills. I think only Van der Poel and Evenepoel have a chance to be close enough to impact Pogacar's race.

 

[AmRacer]

Wout, Mads and everyone else will be too far behind Pogacar after all those hills. I think only Van der Poel and Evenepoel have a chance to be close enough to impact Pogacar's race.

How much I would like to see Mathieu and Remco work together, I cannot se such scenario unfold.

 

[vappa]

The second scenario is the worst for Pogacar and the most likely of those three. Remco (and MVP) are dropped by Pogacar on Kwaremont but are close enough (i.e. not more than 15 seconds back) and Remco brings back MVP, who smokes Pogacar in the sprint. MVP alone (and guys behind) won't be able to catch Pog but with Remco's help the duo might just make it. For Pogacar it would be better if Remco is ahead (or enough behind) MVP on the last climb.

Last year the gap right after 3rd Oude Kwaremont was less than 10s. Right after Paterberg it was 15s more, almost 25s. Even if you're close after Kwaremont and cooked, the gap can increase by a lot

 

[canina82]

The second scenario is the worst for Pogacar and the most likely of those three. Remco (and MVP) are dropped by Pogacar on Kwaremont but are close enough (i.e. not more than 15 seconds back) and Remco brings back MVP, who smokes Pogacar in the sprint. MVP alone (and guys behind) won't be able to catch Pog but with Remco's help the duo might just make it. For Pogacar it would be better if Remco is ahead (or enough behind) MVP on the last climb.

Last year, we were also wondering if Pogacar could make it against a strong chasing group (Mads, WVA, MVP, Stuyven) in a headwind. Guess what, Pogacar won the race with a gap of 1' (after having a 24" gap at the top of Paterberg).
A scenario like AGR happens once in a while with Pogacar and probably because he underperformed for whatever reason (lack of freshness probably).
The worst scenario for him is Remco getting away between those hills and no one works with him. I don't think it's likely btw.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

How much I would like to see Mathieu and Remco work together, I cannot se such scenario unfold.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@AmRacer

Why not? They both are in fight for victory. It's MVP's great chance to win while Remco at least will have a chance to sprint for victory.

@vappa

25 seconds after Paterberg would probably be too much but if they limit it to 15 seconds then who knows.

@canina82

Last year Pogacar was easily the strongest in the finale plus the 2nd group syndrome also kicked in at some point. MVP and Evenepoel cooperating well to the very end could be more dangerous than a larger group in this case.

 

[yaf2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039630014086349064

View: https://x.com/sporza_koers/status/2039630014086349064?s=46

Look what the locals are doing… kopenberg is now in danger of being closed. I am not having this bs

 

[vappa]

@AmRacer

Why not? They both are in fight for victory. It's MVP's great chance to win while Remco at least will have a chance to sprint for victory.

@vappa

25 seconds after Paterberg would probably be too much but if they limit it to 15 seconds then who knows.

@canina82

Last year Pogacar was easily the strongest in the finale plus the 2nd group syndrome also kicked in at some point. MVP and Evenepoel cooperating well to the very end could be more dangerous than a larger group in this case.

If they're cooked more than Pogacar, which is almost a certainty, I find it more likely they'll lose time towards the finish especially if Pogi starts gaining time, they'll just focus on the sprint for 2nd, like last year

 

[QueenStagiaire]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039630014086349064

View: https://x.com/sporza_koers/status/2039630014086349064?s=46

Look what the locals are doing… kopenberg is now in danger of being closed. I am not having this bs

That is not what is written in that article unless my Google translate has broken down

 

[Berflamand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039630014086349064

View: https://x.com/sporza_koers/status/2039630014086349064?s=46

Look what the locals are doing… kopenberg is now in danger of being closed. I am not having this bs

It's only closed for tourists and only today. The cobbles will be cleaned later today.

The pro riders themselves are allowed to ride up the hill during their recons today, though most of them are having trouble on the slippery cobbles and have to walk anyway.

 

[canina82]

@AmRacer

Why not? They both are in fight for victory. It's MVP's great chance to win while Remco at least will have a chance to sprint for victory.

@vappa

25 seconds after Paterberg would probably be too much but if they limit it to 15 seconds then who knows.

@canina82

Last year Pogacar was easily the strongest in the finale plus the 2nd group syndrome also kicked in at some point. MVP and Evenepoel cooperating well to the very end could be more dangerous than a larger group in this case.

That's not true. They were cooperating relatively well (at least until the last 4 km, where the gap was at 51"), they were just dead, specially MVP.

View: https://youtu.be/sKxe3cLz9_Y?is=P4JY4vtzY32k2PBw

So if MVP gets dropped, this means he is toasted and probably won't be able to bring Pogacar back with Remco. Nevertheless, I think if there is any group able to bring Pogacar back, is a duo between Remco and MVP. I just don't think it will happen.