Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Red Rick]

I'm not sure at all he was stronger last year than this year. I just think the chase before Arenberg took a lot out of him. I mean everyone seems to agree that MvdP was amazing today and he couldn't drop Bissegger in the last sectors. Turns out riding in the wind while everyone else is hiding in a slipstream is a big deal.

It's the classic Roubaix vs RVV thing. In RVV you just blast every hill between from the 2nd Kwaremont onwards, whereas in Roubaix you can basically do 2 maybe 3 secteurs at absolute full gas.

I don't think there's that much to take away form wise. UAE clearly tried to make it even harder than last year and that also caused Pogacar to start running out of gas earlier as well.

 

[Brullnux]

Pogacar was in the wind after the cobbled sector for 3km, a third of which came whilst the peloton had completely sat up.

There was a kilometre after the cobbled section where the front group was going full gas and dropping anyone back was high risk (gap went out to like 23/24s), as Arenberg was approaching. Then when Visma left and Decathlon came to the front, that was probably the only time to drop Vermeersch back as it had become very likely the gap would be closed. A kilometre later and there was no point as the peloton had sat up. A single kilometre is where UAE could have changed approach.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Pogacar needs to change his position on the cobbles. He rides very high, he needs to to be in a more aero position on the cobbles.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

I'm not sure at all he was stronger last year than this year. I just think the chase before Arenberg took a lot out of him. I mean everyone seems to agree that MvdP was amazing today and he couldn't drop Bissegger in the last sectors. Turns out riding in the wind while everyone else is hiding in a slipstream is a big deal.

I wouldn't underestimate Bisseger given Decathlon's current form.

 

[MariaB]

Pogi did a hell of a race. Congrats champ!

Puncturing 3 times, changing bikes, even riding a shimano neutral bike, and he got another 2nd.

Could not be more proud.

Fought like a warrior. Your day will come, just like in MSR.

 

[The bald fraud]

So after seeing this race with Pog 2 years in a row who are his main opponents; only MvDP and Wout. That is it !!! Pedersen was weaker this year as he was last year. If there is no one next two years (i don't see anyone close) to Wout, MvDP and Pogi than is obvious Pogi has a great chance to win P-R, since MvDP and Wout are getting older. I wouldn't be suprised Pogi going after Basque, LBL, Giro, TdF, Vuelta, WC, Lombardia next year. If he wins 2 LBLs, 2 Lombardia, 2 TdF, Vuelta and 2 WC in 2026+2027 than he really doesn't need to care about anything except P-R and Olimpics.

I agree. He might skip P-R (or the cobbles altogether) next year to focus on GT treble, but will definitely be back afterwards.

 

[elguapo]

Pogi's P-R latest performance was an improvement to last year. He landed second place behind Wout but with identical time, compared to his second place finish behind MvDP last year with 1'18" in arrears. While pacing each other in front, it was noticeable that Wout was fully committed on the road ahead, unlike Pogi who often looked back at Wout. It could be that Pogi was already tired and unknowingly, his constant stay in front and often looking back at Wout, has add up to his woes . . lapse of concentration and spending more energy.

Equally exciting was the U23 race. It looked like the Trek rider could win it until he was swept by fours riders who countered from behind the lead pack. It could be his inexperience that lead him to defeat though. Earlier, it was announced that it was first time that 10 riders arrived together inside the velodrome and the podium finish was decided in sprint. These 10 would fight it out again in the Tour de l'Avenir?

 

[Monsi]

Just a thought more than 12 hours after the race finish. Pogacar had a really good race, given the cards he was dealt (2 mechs, 3 bike changes, UAE f up, Vermeersch crashing, etc), but I can't help but think that this was such a big missed opportunity to win the race. It's Roubaix and it might happen again but MVDP having a mech and losing 2 minutes was such a golden opportunity. Just unfortunate that he had to deal with his own bad luck but so did Wout too.

I still think Pogi is gonna win Roubaix someday. This year was such a golden opportunity to win it though and it also came in a year when he could potentially win all five Monuments in a single season. Potentially four in a year is still gonna be a big feat though and something that hasn't been done as well. As a Pogi fan, this loss is gonna sting for a while.

 

[dercuforever]

You could say whatever you want and post any random numbers you see on the internet but Pogacar is clearly weaker compared to last year, that was visible in all the races this year, and will be proven again in LBL and TDF. The eye test never lies.

What drugs are all of you guys on ???
In RVV and even more today, he was on the wind for god knows how long, on the flat, with mediocre aero.
He also had to chase back 1'30" then 20" again latter.
On cobbles he is lighter and less technical so he has to push more than specialist to fatigue them.
At 50kmh, drafting requires 25% less watts.
Pogacar shouldn't win PR when guys like VDP (what a monster today) and WVA stay in his wheel and don't relay unless they feel fine.
Pogacar is at least as strong as last year (RVV / Cipressa ...).

 

[Peter von]

Just a thought more than 12 hours after the race finish. Pogacar had a really good race, given the cards he was dealt (2 mechs, 3 bike changes, UAE f up, Vermeersch crashing, etc), but I can't help but think that this was such a big missed opportunity to win the race. It's Roubaix and it might happen again but MVDP having a mech and losing 2 minutes was such a golden opportunity. Just unfortunate that he had to deal with his own bad luck but so did Wout too.

I still think Pogi is gonna win Roubaix someday. This year was such a golden opportunity to win it though and it also came in a year when he could potentially win all five Monuments in a single season. Potentially four in a year is still gonna be a big feat though and something that hasn't been done as well. As a Pogi fan, this loss is gonna sting for a while.

If he can keep going to PR at the same comparative level to main rivals as the past two years, I think Pogi will most likely win one year, even if MVP is stronger overall in this specific race. But give him 5 sprints at the velodrome and Pogi won't loose all 5.

But he will always struggle to wattbomb them out of his wheels as his higher W/kg isn't the same factor as on a proper hill.
Maybe he needs a more tactical race where either Wout and MVP has to spend more to get their war of attrition or he can slip away and let g2 syndrome set in?

idk, current strategy might be the best, it'll get him podiums if he doesn't win and i still think MVP is the only one who might be able to ride him out of his wheel on a 5 star section, on a good day.

 

[Berniece]

He just needs to work on his technique on cobbles. It’s a huge difference compared to anyone in the top 10. He just compensates it with brute force

 

[Unchained]

Just a thought more than 12 hours after the race finish. Pogacar had a really good race, given the cards he was dealt (2 mechs, 3 bike changes, UAE f up, Vermeersch crashing, etc), but I can't help but think that this was such a big missed opportunity to win the race. It's Roubaix and it might happen again but MVDP having a mech and losing 2 minutes was such a golden opportunity. Just unfortunate that he had to deal with his own bad luck but so did Wout too.

I still think Pogi is gonna win Roubaix someday. This year was such a golden opportunity to win it though and it also came in a year when he could potentially win all five Monuments in a single season. Potentially four in a year is still gonna be a big feat though and something that hasn't been done as well. As a Pogi fan, this loss is gonna sting for a while.

I agree with your observations and would add that his chase was amazing to watch, UAE called the army and Politt and I think Morgado went back to work him back on. Pogacar spent so much energy and the fact that he still found himself away with Wout Van Aert was super human, he sounded really positive after the race.
I found his ride and the ride that MvdP put together after everything thrown at them was fantastic.
If you get a chance watch the Tadej interview were he says that the Shimano neutral service bike was uncomfortable.. You get the feeling he wanted to say something other than uncomfortable to describe the bike. Lol.
Even though he lost he really gave a 1000% effort trying.. Guy is amazing

 

[Rackham]

So after seeing this race with Pog 2 years in a row who are his main opponents; only MvDP and Wout. That is it !!! Pedersen was weaker this year as he was last year. If there is no one next two years (i don't see anyone close) to Wout, MvDP and Pogi than is obvious Pogi has a great chance to win P-R, since MvDP and Wout are getting older. I wouldn't be suprised Pogi going after Basque, LBL, Giro, TdF, Vuelta, WC, Lombardia next year. If he wins 2 LBLs, 2 Lombardia, 2 TdF, Vuelta and 2 WC in 2026+2027 than he really doesn't need to care about anything except P-R and Olimpics.

It's not so straight-forward. The Laporte group was only 25-35 seconds behind for the entirety of the final 40k or so any hesitation or tactical slowdown from WvA and Pog would have resulted in a re-grouping and attacks flying off in every direction (which would mean it becomes a bit of a lottery). And that's exactly the scenario UAE clearly wanted to avoid hence why at 150k to go they started drilling it to make the race much harder.

It's about the gaps. In 2024 VdP had an absolutely monster advantage over the field. Last year both VdP and Pog were a step above. But yesterrday? It didn't give that impression at all. Except perhaps VdP without his misfortune might have dominated again since the effort he put in to chase after Arenberg was substantially higher than Pog's effort post-mechanical yet his group was within touching distance by the end.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So what's next for Teddy after this devastating defeat to supposedly washed up Wout? Retirement time? Or will he ride Tour of Slovenia at least?

 

[Berniece]

So what's next for Teddy after this devastating defeat to supposedly washed up Wout? Retirement time? Or will he ride Tour of Slovenia at least?

Defeat by Evenepoel in Liege?

 

[pelotonIQ]

It needs to be studied how incompetent this UAE team is, first it takes 100 years for them to give Pogi a new bike and then 200 years for his teammates to help him back. He is very capable of winning it in the future but this MSR & PR in the same year is a big missed chance.

My only explanation is that he initially tried to bridge back solo because he wanted to save the domestiques for offensive duties but when Visma and Alpecin started pushing the pace upfront he realized he needed help.

 

[Jan the Man]

Defeat by Evenepoel in Liege?

Be intrigued to see the Ardennes and how they shape up. Sexias and Remco can be allies to make things more difficult for Pog if they can hang on La Redout, easier said than done. Although one will always favour Pog until someone can actually dethrone him in LBL or GdL. It is more likely to happen at LBL i think than GdL.

 

[iBanesto]

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar's problem in Roubaix is deeper than just inability to drop eberybody on flat (due to drafting). He misses a bit in watts department. I think Van der Poel (and maybe Van Aert) have better engines on this kind of terrain. I started suspecting it last year (when Pog cracked a bit at the end) and this year Pog was also gassed before the sprint. He still has top3 engine on flat cobbles (impressive for the best climber) but his weaker sprint compared to the big boys is an obstacle. He may need to add more power and mass indeed and it would be easier if he got rid of the Tour duty.

 

[fenns]

You can't win Grand Tours and expect to be as effective in flat classics. To win PR he has to get into the physical condition to outsprint the likes od WVA and MVDP - which would mean no more Tour de France wins or even podiums.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

You can't win Grand Tours and expect to be as effective in flat classics. To win PR he has to get into the physical condition to outsprint the likes od WVA and MVDP - which would mean no more Tour de France wins or even podiums.

Not necessarily outsprint. He needs more sustainable power to drop everybody on cobbles (maybe a bit weakers guys than Vans in 2-3 years). The fact he's top3 on flat cobbles is due to his immense w/ kg: thats why he is so good at relatively low mass (67 kg). Thats why he wont need 75-78 kg, but maybe 70 kg will do. When he gets #5 Tour he may be freed from doing it at least for a year.

 

[fenns]

Not necessarily outsprint. He needs more sustainable power to drop everybody on cobbles (maybe a bit weakers guys than Vans in 2-3 years). The fact he's top3 on flat cobbles is due to his immense w/ kg: thats why he is so good at relatively low mass (67 kg). Thats why he wont need 75-78 kg, but maybe 70 kg will do. When he gets #5 Tour he may be freed from doing it at least for a year.

can't ever see him wanting to get into a condition that makes him ineffective in longer climbs

 

[Krzysztof_O]

can't ever see him wanting to get into a condition that makes him ineffective in longer climbs

Depends on his priorities. If he wants to focus on PR and other classics he can do it for a year. BTW he's so great on climbs that even adding mass wont change him into a donkey there, he still would be one of the best even at 70 kg.

 

[Gargamel35]

As long as Wout, MvdP go to PR in present form, Pogačar won't win it. Yeah, maybe if stars align and everybody have a lot of unluck, but Pog doesn't. Big if. They are bigger and much more powerfull on flat + better sprint. Pog is not built for this race and him being 2nd two times is a testament of how great he is.

I think he needs to drop GT training and go full time for classics for a year or two to improve his options. On the other hand, Wount and MvdP are both 31 compared to 27 of Pog. Maybe age will take care of this on it's own.

 

[fenns]

As long as Wout, MvdP go to PR in present form, Pogačar won't win it. Yeah, maybe if stars align and everybody have a lot of unluck, but Pog doesn't. Big if. They are bigger and much more powerfull on flat + better sprint. Pog is not built for this race and him being 2nd two times is a testament of how great he is.

I think he needs to drop GT training and go full time for classics for a year or two to improve his options. On the other hand, Wount and MvdP are both 31 compared to 27 of Pog. Maybe age will take care of this on it's own.

He's won everything worth winning apart from Vuelta and PR - can't see him sacrificing a whole season for one race where luck is a bigger factor than any other.