TDF 2012: Titans Collide. Dennis Menchov Versus Cadel Evans...possible rivalry.

[Galic Ho]

I don't understand you. The fact that Nibali won the Vuelta by means of incredible luck and the Giro podiums give him global mental priority or what? Wiggins was the 4th in the Tour riding this as a debutant in GC fight and 3rd in the Vuelta. That's more than enough. In addition, we don't even have evidence to consider Nibali a better climber. Because he showed himself very inconsistently in that line last year. Remembering his idiotic attack on the descent from Giau, oh.. To what extent one's good is measured by how one's good NOW. It is a base of any estimation. Previous merits (Menchov and Valverde) can be only a bit of help.

Nibali has a GT and podiums from the hardest two Giros in memory. He's done more than enough to warrant inclusion into a potential favourite list ahead of Wiggins. "More than enough." For you, not for me. Because I saw how poorly Wiggins rode in 2010. Yes he's improved, so had Nibali. Add in Nibali is a risk taker. Just like the above reply I made. I was questioned about Contadors positioning in last years Tour and it's relation to Voeckler. Nibali and Voeckler are prepared to go out and make a move to jump up the GC ladder. Is Wiggins? I surely haven't seen it.

Andy wouldn't have been dropped on that descent whatsoever in case he had held on with them uphill. And I'm 100% certain Nibali will gain nothing on downhills in the Tour. In order to do it, he needs a climbing reserve, he obviously doesnt have it and will suffer.

You don't need a climbing reserve. You simply need a descent and a number of riders to reach the ascent at a similar time. Then if someone wishes to make a slight move, if you can't keep up, you lose time. Granted it may not be a lot, but time is time. Happened last year in both the Tour and Giro, where riders did make moves. As I pointed out, you don't need to make a lot of time. What is it with people thinking you need huge colossal moves to win? A bit of time here, a bit there whilst remaining consistent overall, that's how you podium and ultimately win. Worse, if you rely on a huge ball busting move, like Andy Schleck last year, you ultimately can come up short. But that's Schleck's problem. Look at how Menchov and Evans won their GT's, also look at Valverde. Now look at Nibali. It's about overall consistency. That's the deficit I am mentioning with Wiggins.

@Greenedge. Sky do have Froome as a climing domestique. So he complements Uran or can be the go to guy if Wiggins fails. I forgot Garmin have Tommy D, so ultimately they cancel one another out. Looking at the numbers on paper, Garmin have 5 top ten performances at the Tour amongst their riders and a number of top 20 rides, Sky have 1 top ten performance. Just the single solitary performance by Wiggins three years ago. Ironically riding for Garmin. Garmin are a better team for climbing. Wiggins would be much better protected if he still rode for Garmin. Heck, one could argue he may not even be the protected rider for GC. Now there is some food for thought. I know which team has the experience. Gosh wouldn't it be grand if Tommy D and Ryder beat Wiggins?

 

[Galic Ho]

You are absolutely unreadable. Learn to write concisely.

Just found that. Get over yourself you whining pom. Enjoying the Euro right now? How about the miserable weather? You've got plenty of things to decorate your life with misery than jumping on here and adopting the grammar nazi monicker. People type quickly, deal with it. Again, another fanboy deflecting...come at me bro

 

[airstream]

Nibali has a GT and podiums from the hardest two Giros in memory. He's done more than enough to warrant inclusion into a potential favourite list ahead of Wiggins. "More than enough." For you, not for me. Because I saw how poorly Wiggins rode in 2010. Yes he's improved, so had Nibali. Add in Nibali is a risk taker. Just like the above reply I made. I was questioned about Contadors positioning in last years Tour and it's relation to Voeckler. Nibali and Voeckler are prepared to go out and make a move to jump up the GC ladder. Is Wiggins? I surely haven't seen it.

It changes nothing. It is only circumstance rather than condition that let him get third twice. Whom did he beat? In 2010 he got ahead Scarponi mostly for account of TTT while being worse than Michele on the climbs. In 2011 - he beat Gadret lol. There are always the opponents of higher level in the Tour. And what did Nibali extract due to his ability to take a risk in GT's? Ah. You are already equating Voeckler to Nibali. Well, I'm afraid you will see this in a decisive manner. I think all the arguments against Wiggo sort of he'll inevitably crack on some multi-climbing stage are a bit far-fetched. Yeah, he is doomed to lose little by little, possibly can give away up to 1'30-2min on say Peyragudes. But I don't see him missing podium. So does Andy.

 

[greenedge]

Wow, I have to explain it all again for you. One rider. One rider does not equate to a climbing juggernaut team of domestiques. Maybe if his name were Franck Schleck you'd have a point. Sure you mention Uran, he is good, but it's about quantity here. Overall climbing abilities of all Garmin riders is superior. Vande Velde, Hesjedal, Millar and whoever else they decide to pack on the team, is greater than Uran, Porte and Rogers. Porte and Rogers will be dropped quite early. They keep up, the GC riders are going easy. Oh and this is from an Aussie...they're meh. Garmins overall climbing pedigree is higher.
Failures that can easily manifest again. When Cadel Evans had 'team issues' did he keep committing them? Yes, then he learnt his mistake, acknowledged it, fixed them and won the Tour de France. If Sky don't address the issues they have, Wigans won't even make the podium. The same line of thinking that resulted in last years Vuelta flop cannot be used to solve the underlying problem. As far as one can tell, Sky don't even think there was an issue...yet Wigans is a favourite to win a harder GT against vastly superior opponents!!!

Yes but this year at Sky no one shall be stronger than Wiggins at the TDF. Besides they will probably have learnt from the Vuelta ( though they did screw up there ) so i see your point. However I would not say Wiggins has team issues ( even though the diverting of men to help Cav could count as one ).

Millar is not the climber he used to be. Hesjedal will not go to the TDF after going for the Giro win. Dan Marin is good however, Le Mevel and Tommy D have also been good. Overall Uran, Porte, Rogers and Froome will also do more work for Wiggins than Garmin would for CVV ( so if riders did attack they would ride at a lower tempo or melt away after previously having done work. Porte and Rogers are fine ( Algarve and TOC wins- high placings at GT's each ) show they can go well and provide support. No one is also claiming Sky is a climbing juggernaut but they also have Nordhaug, Knees, Pate, Henao, Zandio along with the others mentioned so they are ok.

I know that Wiggins was also not great at the Vuelta last year ( not winning against a weak field ) but he had crashed at the TDF which probably impacted him in the final week.

 

[greenedge]

Winning Paris-Nice and Romandie in addition to Top4 in the Tour and podium in the Vuelta already makes him one of the greats in road cycling, so the Tour win is absolutely in reach.

He would not count as a great of the sport unless if he wins the TDF. At the moment he is a modern great but would not be regarded as a great in future if he has not won the TDF.

I think his track exploits should also be considered.

 

[greenedge]

@Greenedge. Sky do have Froome as a climing domestique. So he complements Uran or can be the go to guy if Wiggins fails. I forgot Garmin have Tommy D, so ultimately they cancel one another out. Looking at the numbers on paper, Garmin have 5 top ten performances at the Tour amongst their riders and a number of top 20 rides, Sky have 1 top ten performance. Just the single solitary performance by Wiggins three years ago. Ironically riding for Garmin. Garmin are a better team for climbing. Wiggins would be much better protected if he still rode for Garmin. Heck, one could argue he may not even be the protected rider for GC. Now there is some food for thought. I know which team has the experience. Gosh wouldn't it be grand if Tommy D and Ryder beat Wiggins?

That is hypothetical. Based on that TDF 2009 performance i am sure hw ould be. It's not as if CVV has gone great and Hesjedal will probably only podium a GT as his greatest accomplishment GT wise.

I think Wiggins is fine at Sky protection wise- otherwise he would have been losing quite a few of the races he has been at. Porte at P-N/ TOR was good for Wiggins and Wiggins won.

 

[greenedge]

I don't understand you. The fact that Nibali won the Vuelta by means of incredible luck and the Giro podiums give him global mental priority or what? Wiggins was the 4th in the Tour riding this as a debutant in GC fight and 3rd in the Vuelta. That's more than enough. In addition, we don't even have evidence to consider Nibali a better climber. Because he showed himself very inconsistently in that line last year.

Don't forget how young Nibali was in 09. Also Nibali is still younger than Wiggins.

I honestly think Nibali is a much better climber than Wiggins. Wiggins will never do a mountain solo whereas Nibali did one at Green Mountain this year/ has probably done more. At T-A this year Wiggins would not have won, because it would have been too steep for him. P-N/ TOR had no real major climbs ( except for Mende/ Eze ).

 

[Gloin22]

That is hypothetical. Based on that TDF 2009 performance i am sure hw ould be. It's not as if CVV has gone great and Hesjedal will probably only podium a GT as his greatest accomplishment GT wise.

I think Wiggins is fine at Sky protection wise- otherwise he would have been losing quite a few of the races he has been at. Porte at P-N/ TOR was good for Wiggins and Wiggins won.

It wasn't only Porte though Rogers and Froome and the whole team helped Wiggo at TOR. Wiggo will be alright and wil be well protected, most definitely I agree about that.

 

[airstream]

Don't forget how young Nibali was in 09. Also Nibali is still younger than Wiggins.

I honestly think Nibali is a much better climber than Wiggins. Wiggins will never do a mountain solo whereas Nibali did one at Green Mountain this year/ has probably done more. At T-A this year Wiggins would not have won, because it would have been too steep for him. P-N/ TOR had no real major climbs ( except for Mende/ Eze ).

In the 2009 Tour they were quite equal, we were looking into this situation. Yes, Wiggins cracked partially in Le Grand Bornard stage, but he fought for the podium and pulled Nibali and Armtrong a half of Col du Romme and Colombier whereas Vincenzo was still considered as a very young rider who learnt his capacities in the race and didn't take an initiative. I agree with your remark regarding Nibali's climbing strength, but a better climber in general (in off-season, in sort of torn-off story) and a better climber in terms of the Tour (I'm refering this to the perfomance at Green Mountain) are two different things. Otherwise we would come to the conclusion that Purito Rodriguez is a stronger climber than Andy Schleck. At that, a climber always has to prove his superiority over others by attacking. Nibali will have problems with that, again, considering his defensive manner in GT's.

 

[brilleaben]

The Silent Assassin will remain silent in this years journey through France. As it will be difficult to animate the race from the grupetto...

 

[greenedge]

It wasn't only Porte though Rogers and Froome and the whole team helped Wiggo at TOR. Wiggo will be alright and wil be well protected, most definitely I agree about that.

True sorry but i had been saying that Sky had been supporting in there posts.

Froome was not great too( he'd just recovered ).

 

[gustienordic]

Nibali will have problems with that, again, considering his defensive manner in GT's.

This will change. This will change.

 

[airstream]

This will change. This will change.

Not in the Tour. Giro and Vuelta are much better platforms for mastering attacks on the climbs. Well, ok, in point of fact, it can be a depthless debate boiling down to comparison of the Tour and other GT's. As far as I understand, many people assume Nibali can be the second climber in the race.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Not looking good for menchov if he does have tendinitis...

 

[richwagmn]

Both strong veteran riders, with Menchov probably the greatest all around cyclist to ever live has his best chance for a Tour win. If he is ever going to win the tour, it will be this year, and it will complete his rider portfolio, winning all Grand Tours.

Only one man truly stands in Menchov's way, and that's Cadel Evans.

These two titans are ambassadors to the sport. Living legends in their own right on the pedals.

I would favor Menchov however overall. If he can finally be free of bad luck in this tour, I think he can climb better than Cadel, and he can beat Cadel in the time trial. But Menchov being free from bad luck is like a rattle snake without his rattle...probably not likely.

I think we might see a rivalry between these two. I think Cadel and Menchov are head and shoulders above everyone else barring Andy some how musters up great time trials, or has a legendary showing in the mountains.

Say what???

Here's what will happen in the TDF with Menchov - nothing. And in a few years when he retires he won't be remembered.

 

[cineteq]

Not looking good for menchov if he does have tendinitis...

That doesn't change anything. Read poster below.

Here's what will happen in the TDF with Menchov - nothing. And in a few years when he retires he won't be remembered.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Say what???

Here's what will happen in the TDF with Menchov - nothing. And in a few years when he retires he won't be remembered.

Really? If he wins the tdf he will have won all the grand tours. But even if he doesn't win he has definitely been a top contender in the past decade.

 

[SilentAssassin]

That doesn't change anything. Read poster below.

Yes pretty funny remark...guess he didn't know he finished top 3 in an era of tougher competitors...

 

[cineteq]

Yes pretty funny remark...guess he didn't know he finished top 3 in an era of tougher competitors...

You're basing your view on what he's done in the past. What has he done lately that's worthy in competition?
TBH, many people think he doesn't deserve his GT titles. Sad but true.

 

[Fetisoff]

You're basing your view on what he's done in the past. What has he done lately that's worthy in competition?
TBH, many people think he doesn't deserve his GT titles. Sad but true.

Many people still think the sun revolves around the earth. And your point?

 

[SilentAssassin]

You're basing your view on what he's done in the past. What has he done lately that's worthy in competition?
TBH, many people think he doesn't deserve his GT titles. Sad but true.

I am basing him on his past performance and that is a pretty reasonable thing to do. He could be saving himself and just trying to peak at the tdf. I do not know.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Menchov got 8th in stage 1...better than Cadel I see. Looks like he's in good form.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I am basing him on his past performance and that is a pretty reasonable thing to do. He could be saving himself and just trying to peak at the tdf. I do not know.

this might be spot on after all